DIABETES: THE SUGAR MYTH, CULTURAL AND TRADITIONAL BELIEFS AND THE TRUTH

Susan Haynes-Elcock is friend, who is a writer, housewife, avid gardener and volunteer with the National Trust in Britain. Diagnosed with Type 1 diabetes in October 2008, she has carried out much research to understand the long-term condition for which there is no cure. Shocking facts revealed that the Black African-Caribbean communities are one of the highest risk groups in the world for contracting diabetes – mainly, type 2.

Diabetes is a killer if not caught and managed carefully. Susan should know, hers went undiagnosed and she went into a coma as a result. Once she got over the experience of nearly dying, through her writing and other projects, she is now hoping to help educate those with and without the condition about the myths and reality of diabetes.

However, it doesn’t stop her living life to the fullest. She is developing a website, so keep an eye out. She is also workingjavascript:void(0) on becoming a culinary coach, and creating a range of ‘diabetically-friendly/everybody who loves food’ products. She promises more to come on that. As a part of a National Trust project, she has written ‘The Wightwick Manor, Caribbean Herbal’ - a book about many of our Caribbean herbs and their culinary and healing properties. Her article below was published recently in The Voice.
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DIABETES: THE SUGAR MYTH, CULTURAL AND TRADITIONAL BELIEFS AND THE TRUTH

By Susan K Haynes-Elcock


Diabetes: This silent stalker, common chronic lifestyle condition, is cloaked in myths. The most common of these - ‘the sugar myth’, unlike most myths, at least has a modicum of truth attached to it. Research shows that it is a universally accepted ‘truth’ that ‘if you eat too much sugar you get diabetes’ and ‘if you have diabetes you can’t eat sweets or chocolates.’

I laugh when I think of this particular myth, as I was once a member of the ‘sugar myth club’. When diagnosed with diabetes back in 2008, my first and only thought was ‘OMG, no more sugar.’ The simple truth is that the ‘sugar myth’ is just that – a myth. My diabetes was triggered by medication.

To make sense of how this myth has been accepted as fact at a global level, we need to go right back to the beginning to what is known about diabetes. Historical evidence shows that in approximately 1550 BC, an Egyptian papyrus mentions a rare disease ‘that causes the patient to lose weight rapidly and urinate frequently’. This is thought to be the first reference to the disease.

However, it wasn’t until around the 1st Century AD that it was named by the Greek Physician Aretaeus. He described a condition with symptoms of ‘constant thirst, loss of weight and excessive urination’. He called it diabetes meaning ‘siphon’ or ‘flowing through’ in Greek.

Around the 19th century, methods of testing to identify the disease included official ‘water tasters’ and some physicians actually tasting the patient’s urine. As it had a sweetish taste the name ‘mellitus’, which means ‘honey or sweet’ in Latin was added. Hence the name Diabetes Mellitus. Even more interesting though, is the actual makeup of the condition which gives a clear link to sugar and the disease.

Diabetes, a serious life-long condition is caused by a build up of glucose (sugar) in the bloodstream. The body breaks down food into glucose which moves through the bloodstream to provide cells with the fuel needed by the body to produce energy – similar to petrol in a car. To do its job, glucose needs the help of the hormone insulin which is produced by the pancreas. Diabetes occurs when the pancreas can no longer produce insulin, the insulin produced is not enough, or the body cannot use the insulin produced (insulin resistance), thereby causing a build up of glucose (sugar) in the bloodstream.

Diabetes is classified mainly as type 1 or type 2. Type 1 diabetes is caused by genetics, viruses, medication, stress and unknown factors. Type 2 diabetes is linked to genetics, lifestyle, obesity and age. Eating excessive amounts of foods high in sugar like sweets, pastries or drinks, can certainly lead to weight gain and an increase in the risk of developing diabetes, especially if there is a history of diabetes in the family.

The charity Diabetes UK describes myths as ‘old-fashioned untruths’ and state, “From misinformation around what food to eat, to incorrect causes of developing the condition, these old fashioned untruths cause various problems around living with, treating or even talking about diabetes.”

Diabetes is serious. If left untreated it can lead to heart attacks, blindness, nerve damage, kidney disease, and other life-threatening complications. So much damage can be done by these myths that during Diabetes Week 2010, Diabetes UK have launched a campaign aiming to dispel the myths about diabetes.

The sugar myth and other myths might be dispelled over time, but the real worry globally are the cultural and traditional beliefs of a community. Unfortunately, it would seem that the people most at risk include the ethnic minority communities of the North American Indian, Asian, African and Caribbean peoples. In the Afro-Caribbean community the belief was that for a female to be attractive, she had to have ‘some meat on her bones’. Other deep-seated beliefs are that diabetes is caused because of sin or evil spirits which only a spiritual healing or ‘bush bath’ will cure. Added to these are the beliefs that herbal healing and traditional medicines will ‘cure’ diabetes. Presently, there is no cure for diabetes.

The problem is that cultural and traditional beliefs are an integral part of a people’s heritage. Often no one knows where they originated but eventually they become ‘truth’ and accepted. Additional problems occur due to the inability or refusal of some professional care providers to acknowledge, respect or give credence to these cultural and traditional beliefs. As a result, ‘underground pockets of self-healers’ develop.

Researchers in the USA believe that unless care providers change their attitudes, they will continue to have little chance of being successful with the treatment and lifestyle changes they recommend. In spite of whatever education they provide or the arsenal of drugs, the communities that need it most will not fully benefit.

The belief amongst communities that herbal remedies such as garlic, ‘ganja’ tea, cerasee, lignum vitae leaf, and cinnamon lower blood glucose or even ‘cure’ diabetes is real. Forward-thinking Diabetes UK says, “Using herbal remedies and plant derivatives to help in the treatment of diabetes should certainly not be discounted’, with a caution that thorough research and consultation with experts is necessary (www.diabetes.org.uk) I personally have found using ordinary herbal remedies along with my insulin very beneficial in maintaining my blood glucose ‘sugar’ levels.

2010 Diabetes UK figures show globally 285 million people have been diagnosed with diabetes of which 2.6 million are in the UK. The question is, what more can be done to dispel diabetic myths? How helpful would it be at global and national level to include a formal structure that accepts and encourages the use of cultural and traditional beliefs in conjunction with modern diabetes treatments.

The truth is even though diabetes is a ‘killer’ disease, it has been proven that with careful management, dispelling the myths and avoiding ‘chocolate meltdown’, people with diabetes can have long and successful lives.

©2010 Susan K Haynes-Elcock

Why? Because I Say So.

Several days ago someone asked me about my lessened involvement on the radio call-in programs in Barbados. I explained that for a variety of reasons I had not been very audible for several weeks. Some of the reasons were that I needed to focus on what I do as work, and financial markets were very nervous and turbulent: I have found that I cannot concentrate on what is going on there for my benefit, and also have an ear and voice tuned to the issues coming across on the radio. Multitasking usually means that something or someone is getting short shrift, so I made a decision to limit certain distractions. I also explained that, while I may have a view on lots of things and some expertise in certain areas, one of my motivations was to encourage people who had views to express them, not to take up the airwaves with my own views and thoughts. I listened a lot to the discussions and formed ideas in my head, but did not feel the urge to express those on the air.

One thing that struck me was the repeated recurrence of particular topics and points of view and wondered how it was that this was still going on. Why do people need to use the call-in to let the water authority know that pipes have been leaking for days/weeks? Why cannot the electricity company address the issues of disputed meter readings? Why are those involved in West Indies cricket so seemingly out of touch with what the public wants of the team and its administration? Why are parliamentarians acting as if they are not being televised and broadcast live and stop what most people see as a set of boorish and uncivil behaviour, supposedly doing the people's business? Why can't a company representative give a simple answer to a simple question? Why is so much action promised and so little delivered? Why is it that things seem to get little or no action until a crisis appears? And the list goes on in my head.

In a sense, the various complaints and criticisms had not found a good ear on those who had the power to address them. What I also heard was a very distinct tone of defensiveness from decision makers. Whenever someone was being asked to take responsibility or give an explanation for why no action had been taken, up came the 'wall' of 'when the time is right, all will be explained' (or words to that effect). By and large, I find that approach very unacceptable, but I cannot speak for the general population, and if they find this 'wait awhile' style fulfilling. The other aspect that comes with that approach is a clear paternalism, that says 'we', the decision makers, know best when to tell you things that are important to your lives that we have done but not yet shared with you.

When I heard fellow economist, Tennyson Beckles, speak recently about the need for transparency in public decision making, his points seemed so obvious. Yet, here was a situation where information about a substantial addition to the public burden seemed to have been kept very close the chests of a select few. It does not matter how good or necessary the decision was/is--in this case, how to finance the rebuilding of prison destroyed by fire--the thinking seemed to be that people could not handle the nasty news that taxpayers would be on the hook for a lot more money over several years to come. That suggests that, had the public been informed, they might have said 'No, don't do it that way.'

Subjecting public decisions to public scrutiny is still not part of the Caribbean reflex. I'm not sure if that comes from centuries of having been subjected to bossiness of one sort or another. People seem to know how to ram decisions down people's throats, but not how to take people into their confidence or negotiate their way to a solution.

Unity Bar Lecture: June 11, 2010: Mr. Guyson Mayers--"The Implications of Entrenched Organized Crime: A Caribbean Perspective"

The next lecture in the series will be delivered on Friday, June 11, by Mr. Guyson Mayers, Attorney-at-Law, and Chairman of the Rural Development Commission, at the "Errol Barrow Gallery", DLP Headquarters, 'Kennington', George Street, Belleville, St. Michael; his topic will be "The Implications of Entrenched Organized Crime: A Caribbean Perspective". As usual lunch will be served from 12.30 pm and the lecture will start at 1.00 pm.

How Some See Crime

A reader of this blog sent in an anonymous comment today on the post "A Hard Road To Travel":

'Honestly, I am more concerned about what Jamaicans are doing in Barbados than what they are doing in Jamaica. Today, I read in www.Barbadostoday.bb and the Nation online that three Jamaican men, along with a Bajan man, have been arrested for allegedly committing a string of armed robberies (at least 15) throughout Barbados within the last 5 months. I have long suspected that many of the armed robberies committed in Barbados were being committed by Caricom nationals. Though Bajans commit armed robberies, armed robberies were rare in Barbados until recently. Bajans need to look to Jamaica as an example of what can happen if thugs are allowed to take over a society and fight to stop them before their way of life becomes the norm in Barbados. I feel sorry for Jamaicans, but as long as many of them choose to take to the streets to fight to keep criminals in their communities instead of taking to the streets to protest against them, not much will change in Jamaica any time soon'

This is an interesting set of concerns. On the matter of who is committing various types of crimes, I would say that the nationality is sometimes mentioned in crime reports, but the data I have seen show that the majority of crimes are being committed by Bajans, not foreigners. Who committed the daylight robbery at the Parkinson Memorial Secondary School in late May? No doubt, certain types of crimes do involve foreigners to a high degree, for instance trafficking in drugs: today's Advocate has a report of a 'Vincentian charged with drug offences'. Crimes reported in the press are not the full story--not least because they are a selection--but these have involved a range of nationals, including those from Europe. The last information I say reported indicated that non-nationals are not disproportionately amongst those charged and convicted for crimes. I am not going to make a guess based on people's names. Given that deportation is an option, I have not seen a spate of stories about non-nationals being deported for crimes. It's fine to have a suspicion, but it needs proof, otherwise it's just a plain old prejudice. What would be helpful, would be if the Royal Barbados Police Force gave statistics on the national profile of criminals. That, at least, would give the proof as far as their coverage of crimes go.

The recent discussions about gangs in Barbados was notable in that very little reference was made to active foreign elements, though some had an element of 'copy cat' behaviour. Notably, today, new Senator David Durant stressed the need to take the Barbados gangs problem seriously (see Nation report).

A tendency exists that says bad things come from outside and somehow no one needs to look within for problems. As someone commented on the radio this week, even if a proximate cause comes from outside, it cannot really take hold unless the conditions are there for that to happen: the host must be receptive. So, foreign influence may be a catalyst, but is not really the cause. Judging from the local scenes I see of children and adults misbehaving, there is plenty of violence that is part of everyday life. I just came from the yard of one private school and saw two young children (about 5-6 years old) 'playing': the boy was chasing the girl and when he caught her, he beat her with a stick. I could not tell from a distance what were the nationalities of the children and I could only guess from where that behaviour had been learnt. I know one parent of the child is a Bajan and past student of the same school. As was also reported today, Professor Linden Lewis, outgoing president of the Caribbean Studies Association, noted that violence seems to have become a banal part of life for many, and he lays part of the blame at the feet of 'globalisation' (see Nation report).

It is a major worry that Jamaican citizens in a community would defend an alleged criminal, but that also ignores that the person concerned may not be committing crimes against the community, but may be using crime and its proceeds to provide goods and services to the community. In that case, people are defending their gains. It points to the failure of other agencies and institutions for not providing and for letting a void exist. The truth is also that most Jamaicans did not rise up in support, and had called earlier for the extradition order to be laid. But, if one is concerned about what has happened in west Kingston, then one also has to decide if the same concern should not apply to say public or elected officials who are accused of misdeeds yet are robustly defended, at least verbally, by their constituents. I can think of some very recent instances in the precincts of Parliament that would fall into that realm. Assuming that in either case allegations have to be proven, the defending of a representative by his or her constituents is not that peculiar.

I would not disagree with any notion of opposing thugs and preventing them from taking over society and having their way. But that means seeing a thug, whoever that may be and not sitting complacency thinking he or she is not local and that they are persons who come from outside.

A Hard Road To Travel

Every Jamaican, or persons who feel allied to Jamaica, should have an opinion about what is going on currently in that country, as the government and its security and law enforcement agencies confront citizens who purport to stand in defence on an alleged criminal.

Jamaica did not get to this situation overnight, and most Jamaicans know this all too well, having lived in a virtual 'state of siege' for nearly four decades, as crime and violence dictated so many aspects of what was deemed to be normal life, especially in and around its capital, Kingston. But, that it should get to this situation through the request by a US law enforcement agency to extradite, for alleged drugs and gun running, a Jamaican citizen who resided in the constituency of Jamaica's current prime minister is quite amazing. That this constituency in western Kingston, Tivoli Gardens, should also have been that of a previous long-standing Jamaican prime minister, would make most people wonder how politics and crime are intertwined in Jamaica.

Elected people are there to represent and lead. But, a case such as this has made many wonder who is being represented and how is the nation being led. I cannot cast aspersions against any individual but one consequence of this current series of events is that facts that some may wish to keep secret will find their way out into the public domain. If not done openly, my feeling is that it will be done covertly. We live in an age where there are really no secrets and once information is passed it can be shared almost infinitesimally. It's really a matter of choice and timing over what is disclosed. That's good for ordinary citizens.

Yesterday afternoon, Jamaica's prime minister made a statement to Parliament about the state of emergency in Kingston and St. Andrews, and how the emergency powers regulations would be invoked. Later in the evening, when I heard discussion on Jamaican radio about how high school students at Excelsior had been sitting CXC exams when gunfire rang out, and students crouched on the floor and continued to try to write their answers, I knew what it meant that a country's priorities were all wrong. It is one thing to grow up doing homework by the light of a candle or kerosene lamp, or as I saw in Guinea students sitting at a gas station because it was one of the few places that had light. It is something else to try to gain an education when you feel you are in a war zone. Jamaica, in the eyes of much of the world, has been one crime zone, with its horrendous murder rate. The fact that the crimes are not really spread across the nation is irrelevant to international perception. Tourists ask about places of interest but really are hard pressed to feel that it is wise to leave the north coast enclaves or the bucolic south coast to venture into Kingston. That attitude wont be changing anytime soon. For that matter, I wonder how many people will start to really draw in their horns and start to isolate themselves from downtown Kingston even more. Sad, when a long-awaited revival of what is still a beautiful capital is getting underway.

I also heard some Jamaican journalists talk about how foreign media seemed to be demanding information or creating stories in the absence of rapid information. How strange it seemed that BBC reporters appeared in fatigues alongside JDF officers and were able to interview people, yet local journalists seemed absent. How odd that stories were breaking in foreign media rather than in local ones. Part of the problem is that even though the media in Jamaica is quite vigorous, that in much of the developed world is much more vigorous and have no need to be sensitive to any local mores. Moreover, what is Jamaica to them? A broken or failed state of some 3 million people. A blip that has grown to be a bit of bigger blip. I wont even go into the potential racial angles that may get thrown on it by news agencies that are largely Euro/North American-centric, as yet another state run by black people seems to descend into chaos.

We in the Caribbean have lagged in our participation in some aspects of the information revolution. The speed of the Internet does not wait for those who want to massage every message. In the same way that electronic surveillance does not respect the walls of any building. If a businessman can set up cameras to observe his business without any of his staff or customers being aware, simply as a means of avoiding theft and crime, how hard is it to set up similar to deal with any aspect of life? Those who have committed wrong acts need to live with the reality that facts are facts and never change. Their disclosure is no longer a matter of personal choice. The world is almost totally open, and secrets will out. Be sure of that: ask Sarah Ferguson.

One good thing I hope for from this frightening debacle is the disclosure of what does what with whom. Like my daughter chewing gum but pretending she is not but my being able to smell it, Jamaica is full of inappropriate liaisons. It's not unique in that sense. But its people have paid a very heavy price for that and when you have to take goods that you did not really want to have, it's good if you get a chance to send them back from where they come.

Jamaica's bizarre socio-economic clock cannot turn back but it can be reset. This may be the spur to find ways to start dealing with that process.

Will You Take Me To The Ball? Political Indecision In The UK Shows How MPs Can Waltz

The indecisive result from last week's General Election in the UK put into sharp focus what happens when the rhetoric of adversarial politics as practised in many of the Westminster-based parliamentary systems comes face to face with an electorate that is not polarised. The UK does not have a history of coalition politics at the national level, in contrast to experiences in many of its European neighbours. Much of that is a reflection of the first-past-the-post system as well as the skewed outcomes that come from the allocation of constituencies. In short, voting shares do not result in similar allocation of seats and therefore the claims on power. It has been a while since any UK government had an actual majority of votes. Many European countries get coalitions because their proportional voting systems recognize that overall majorities are not often the result for which people vote and therefore combining to make a majority is more a logical outcome needed to get governments formed. Whether the coalitions make sense in terms of political leanings and policy agendas is another issue.

In the UK, the mad electoral system has just about run its course, where a hung Parliament seemed likely for a long time before the voting, and turned out to be the outcome. Conservatives gained 306 seats of a possible 650 [see BBC report on results] (47% of total seats, with 36% of the vote). Labour had 258 seats (40% of seats, with 29% of votes). The Liberal Democrats got a measly 57 seats (9% of total, with 23% of votes). Other parties gained 28 seats (4 1/2% of total, with 12% of votes). That shows as clearly as you need that the system does not give people what they vote for.

It is interesting to watch the process of 'king making', with the Liberal Democrat party getting the 3rd highest share of votes and now meeting its suitors. First, its negotiating team went to the tent of the party with the largest vote share (Conservatives, right of centre)), but with whom the Lib Dems (a centre-left party) have fewer 'natural' policy overlaps. Then, yesterday, with PM Gordon Brown's promise to remove himself from leadership opening the way for formal negotiations with the Lib Dems, they naturally went to sit in the Labour (left of centre) tent, where they will have more policy overlaps. For the Lib Dems, the real test should be electoral reform, as this should give them a more assured political future if they have some variant of proportional representation which would translate their strong vote into Parliamentary power. But, electoral reform was not a major issue during the election, which was dominated by economic issues and immigration. The sweetener for the Lib Dems that the Tories have now offered is a promised referendum so that the people can decide.

Whether those who voted for the separate parties will be happy with any coalition formed is another issue that has to be dealt with by each party and there are some poisoned chalice situations waiting to be met. One also has to think that 'stable government', if there is a Labour-Lib Dem pact, will depend on the support of other small parties. It will be a muddle to get this all stitched up quickly, and speed is not really the thing that is important politically, despite lots of media and financial market pressures to do a deal quickly.

For the Caribbean, the thought that comes to mind is whether we have been served well with the Westminster-style system and local politicians' efforts to polarise voters, even though in many of the region's English-speaking countries the differences are not poles apart. Trinidad's election is now running, and for fun, I have been playing with the idea of how the lack of any overall majority there may play out. It's worth watching the UK dance for both style and substance and lessons that it may offer.

Caught Between A Rock And A Hard Place: The IMF Reports On The Regional Economic Outlook

The IMF's latest quarterly regional report on Latin America and the Caribbean has just been released (see report). As for the world as a whole, growth is occurring in the region, but it is uneven. Much of the growth in the region depends on external developments, and here we have a cleft stick for tourist dependent countries, like Barbados, which have seen tourism and associated foreign investment suffer (see more on this below). The IMF analysis is clear and speaks much for itself, but a few points are worth highlighting. The press release notes that the outlook for smaller economies remains difficult:

“But within that regional picture, countries with strong ties to global financial markets are likely to stage a more vigorous recovery, helped by their access to ample external financing and by strong prices for their commodity exports. On the other hand, some of the smaller economies will experience more sluggish growth, and some of those will even contract. Accordingly, policy approaches will have to vary considerably to ensure a sustainable recovery across countries.”

In assessing the varied outlook, the IMF comes up with a grouping named 'net commodity importing countries with large tourism sectors'. This group comprises Antigua and Barbuda, The Bahamas, Barbados, Belize, Dominica, Grenada, Jamaica, St. Kitts and Nevis, St. Lucia, and St. Vincent and the Grenadines. These countries depend primarily on tourism for their current account revenues. In general, they have high external debt burdens but otherwise are not closely integrated with external financial markets. They experienced sizable terms-of-trade losses during 2000–08, given their limited goods exports base and their reliance on imported fuels.

'Growth in the commodity importing tourism intensive countries has been marked down and is expected to perform worse in the current cycle than in previous episodes of global stress. The relevant external conditions are less benign for these countries. Reflecting strong links to weak employment in advanced economies, shocks to tourism have not fully reversed, and elevated commodity import prices are weighing on activity. Moreover, in some of these countries, high levels of debt constrain the room for policy maneuver. Although some countries managed to implement countercyclical fiscal policy in 2009, the payoff in growth was limited, probably reflecting small multipliers. And fiscal stimulus efforts may be short-lived, given financing constraints in forthcoming periods.' This general picture has its clear image in Barbados.

The report adds: 'Policy challenges in the coming years will correspondingly vary across countries. For many of the financially integrated commodity exporters, the challenge will be managing the upswing of the business cycle. A main theme will be the timing and sequence of exit from the macroeconomic stimulus implemented in 2009, and the adjustment to a more benign external environment. In turn, for many of the tourism intensive commodity importers, the sluggish recovery, coupled with high external and fiscal imbalances, will require difficult policy choices.'

Many of these countries are the filling in a sandwich that is hard to stomach: dependent on growth and strong employment in developed countries that should generate tourists, and push the flow of foreign direct investment (FDI, often also in the tourism sector). The report highlight graphically how that situation is looking bad for many of the region's small economies. 'Estimates of tourist arrivals to the tourism intensive commodity importers suggest that the impact of a 1 percent increase in OECD unemployment implies a contemporaneous decline of 4 percent in arrivals, on average (Box 2.6). For the current downturn, the approximate 3 percentage point increase in U.S. unemployment squares with the average 10 percent decline in Caribbean tourism. Longer-term investments in the form of vacation real estate and other forms of tourism fell concomitantly with short-term vacation arrivals, as household wealth declined in the aftermath of the financial crisis. This is particularly costly for the tourism intensive importing countries, as median FDI (in percent of GDP) had tripled, from below 4 percent in 1996 to more than 16 percent of GDP by 2008. The importance can be observed in the concurrent declines in median unemployment in the region, from more than 16 percent in 1996 to single digits in the most recent years. With the onset of the crisis, FDI fell sharply to 10 percent of GDP in 2009. Employment in advanced economies is expected to improve only gradually, with weak prospects for tourism in the coming years.'

The nail is driven home with 'The weak recovery in the tourism intensive, commodity importing countries will pose a great challenge to policymakers, as elevated debt levels and limited access to financing impose difficult policy tradeoffs.'

The recent concerns about debt and financing could indirectly affect the region through market confidence effects or directly via Spanish banks but also due to general concerns about high debt and deficits levels.

It is worth remembering that one of the mainstays of many of the region's small economies has also been one of its constraints. 'Moving toward more flexible exchange rates, where possible, would serve as a cushion against potential future external shocks.' Holding onto fixed exchange rates has become sacrosanct in many territories, but without proposing that this be dropped one need only look at Greece's plight to see what happens when you cannot devalue your currency in light of severe economic problems.

The IMF report also highlights the burden on the region of the still unfolding financial difficulties of the CL Financial Group and the pending Securities and Exchange Commission fraud charge case against Allen Stanford and three of his financial companies fro running fraudulent investment schemes. The Fund, ever the master of understatement comments 'Both experiences point to the need to improve financial regulation and crossborder cooperation.'

Unity Bar Lecture: INNOVATION AND ECONOMIC PROGRESS: ISSUES FOR BARBADOS (SPEAKING NOTES)

The following are my speaking notes from today's presentation at the Unity Bar lunchtime lecture.

INNOVATION AND ECONOMIC PROGRESS: ISSUES FOR BARBADOS (SPEAKING NOTES)

What is innovation and why is it important?

• In any economy, innovation is part of the process of becoming competitive and keeping the advantages that gives. If you look at definitions (e.g., Websters Dictionary), you get:

1: the introduction of something new;
2: a new idea, method, or device.

• So, newness is key. Note, that innovation is not about science and technology, and it comprises ideas, ways of thinking and doing.

• Economists see many things in terms of value creation and distribution in an economy, and innovation is treated in that way. Economists tend to say, therefore, that new ideas are much lessened if they are not implemented as things that increase wealth (or welfare) of the society. Positive application of an idea is key. [We are not keen on new ways to make people worse off. So, should look unfavourably at certain financial innovations such as involved in the sub-prime mortgage crisis.]

• In the minds of many people, including economists, innovation is often/sometimes seen as an aspect of management, i.e., more related to the micro-economic level of economic activity, rather than as a fundamental basis for economic development, i.e., macroeconomic consideration.

• Thinking within the economics discipline has changed since Joseph Schumpeter developed his ideas in his classic 1942 book 'Capitalism, Socialism and Democracy' and put innovation into the forefront as a macroeconomic considerations.

What do economists think about innovation?

• The economics discipline now has a branch described as 'innovation economics'. It is an economic doctrine that reformulates the traditional model of economic growth so that knowledge, technology, entrepreneurship, and innovation are positioned at the center of the model rather than seen as independent forces that are largely unaffected by policy. Innovation economics is based on two fundamental tenets: that the central goal of economic policy should be to spur higher productivity and greater innovation, and that markets relying on price signals alone will not always be as effective as smart public-private partnerships in spurring higher productivity and greater innovation.

• This is in contrast to the two other conventional economic doctrines, neoclassical economics and Keynesian economics.

• For Schumpeter, institutions, entrepreneurs, and technological change that were at the heart of economies and economic growth.

• Innovation economists believe that what primarily drives economic growth in today’s knowledge-based economy is not capital accumulation, as claimed by neoclassicalists, but innovation.

• The major drivers of economic growth are productive efficiency and adaptive efficiency. The focus in innovation economics is the study of how societies create new forms of production, products, and business models to expand wealth and quality of life.

• In contrast to neoclassical economics, which is focused on getting the price signals right to maximize the efficient allocation of scarce resources, innovation economics is focused on spurring economic actors – from the individual, to the organization or firm, and to broader levels, such as industries, cities, and even an entire nation – to be more productive and innovative.

• Spurring evolving and learning institutions is the key to growth.

• In innovation economics, “social technologies” of institutions, culture, norms, laws, and networks that are central to growth.

• Innovation economists view innovation as an evolutionary process.

Current push on innovation in Barbados

• Innovation should be current in the minds of many people in Barbados. On April 11, VOB had the topic on its Sunday Down to Brass Tacks as 'Science Technology & Innovation - are we doing enough?' The discussion came immediately after the annual Innovation Awards. Much of the discussion focused on science and technology aspects of innovation.

• Press reports noted widely comments from Minister of Innovation, David Estwick, who is responsible for government policy on innovation (plus a range of economic affairs) (see http://www.nationnews.com/news/local/estwick-innovationcopy-for-web). He was quoted to have said the following:

"The school system must be seen as an environment which nourishes and encourages creativity and innovative thinking. Innovation must become a way of life for our people.".

"What is needed is a system that facilitates and develops strategies for research and technology development and application in the public and private sectors, as well as the university."

"Most of us are aware of climate change . . . droughts, floods and heavy rains. These conditions can have an adverse effect on the agricultural sector and hamper food production," and noted that “farmers should be trained and provided with newer technologies in order to cope.”

• The Minister also reiterated Government's commitment to consolidating the various venture capital windows in Barbados into one agency, which would in turn support businesses in commercialising existing or new ideas.
  

• Pointing to Government's commitment to innovation via the creation of a Ministry of Innovation, he called for innovative thinking in traditional sectors like agriculture and manufacturing, which would involve the embracing of new technologies.
  

• Minister Estwick was also reported (in The Barbados Advocate , April 13, p7) to have said that Government intends to offer appropriate tax credits to companies that pursue research and development of innovative projects targeted towards manufacturing or agro-processing activities.

• Further, the Director of the National Council for Science and Technology (Dr Lennox Chandler) announced in mid-April that the NCST will be developing a national innovation strategy for Barbados this financial year. He noted that innovation is happening but not operating to the level it should. He stated that “all over the world over 90 percent of the innovations have their genesis in science and technology...” [I do not know the basis of that conclusion, but feel that it comes from a very narrow view of what innovation means.]

• So, at the highest level of government we appear to have an understanding of many elements that are needed to push innovation as a policy agenda item, and a degree of political commitment to back up that understanding. Also, there is a sense of the need for an environment in which innovation can flourish.

Measuring innovation across countries

• However, a good amount of innovation is already going on in Barbados, but it is useful to see that in some broader international context.
  

• There are several international benchmarking studies of the innovation performance of countries, the Global Innovation Index (GII) being one. Other examples are Richard Florida´s index for the Creative Class and the Innovation Capacity Index (ICI). The traditional approach to measuring innovation has been to look at parameters like patents per million of population, publication of scientific journals, research and development expenditure, etc. The latest GII report adds other parameters that capture innovation in emerging markets and the effects of innovation on social welfare.
  

• I will focus on the Global Innovation Index (GII), as this is clearly the most comprehensive in country coverage and also itself innovative by looking at a wider measure of innovation. [The GII is a global index measuring the level of innovation of a country, produced jointly by The Boston Consulting Group (BCG), the National Association of Manufacturers (NAM), and The Manufacturing Institute (MI), the NAM's nonpartisan research affiliate. NAM describes it as the "largest and most comprehensive global index of its kind". The Global Innovation Index 2009-10 ranks countries on parameters like ‘Institutions’, ‘Human Capacity’ and ‘Business Sophistication’ to arrive at a global ranking for nations on innovation.]
  

• The GII report presents the latest findings and highlights the best policies and practices for promoting innovation readiness. That suggests that countries can learn from each other in seeing how innovation has been brought to bear in making their economies grow.
  

• One statement from the report that I would echo and stress is that 'Innovation can therefore — and often must — be disruptive to catalyse the process.' [We can ask 'What does that imply for Barbados, which has hailed itself as a place built on stability and maintaining status quo?']

• One trait of successfully innovating countries is clear: In the face of adversity, they deliberately play to their strengths and act boldly with an eye on new opportunities.

• The GII study underscores the fact that successful countries today are not necessarily large geographically speaking or richly endowed with natural resources, nor ones able to project military power internationally. [This argues that Barbados' size and limited resources are not real impediments to its being highly innovative.] Increasingly, they are ones that have managed to expand opportunities for their populations through the full exploitation of the opportunities afforded by the world economy through international trade, foreign investment, and the adoption of new technologies. [In this vein, we have to ask 'Has Barbados expanded opportunities in this way?']

• Innovation will be likely distributed globally rather than being a prerogative of the western world. For example, in a continent like Africa locally emergent innovations might bring greater prosperity than Western solutions.

• Iceland (320k people on 40k square mile island) is the surprise leader in the latest report, despite the tough economic situation it has faced since two years. Sweden and Hong Kong (7 mill people on 426 sq miles) follow in 2^nd and 3^rd positions. Switzerland is 4^th. Denmark is 5th and Singapore is 7th: how these small countries have pushed innovation will be looked at more closely, later. Among the best innovators from last year, USA (11^th), UK (14^th), Germany (16^th) have fallen in ranks.

• Barbados ranked 50th overall out of 132 countries, with Trinidad 55th and Jamaica 70th. In the Americas, it ranked 5th (of 25), with Trinidad ranked 7th , and Jamaica 11th.

Some comments on the details of the GII

• Distinction between enablers and outputs while measuring innovation in an economy. Enablers are aspects that help an economy to stimulate innovation and outputs are the results of innovative activities within the economy.

• Five enabler pillars that are included in the GII: Institutions, Human Capacity, General and ICT Infrastructure, Market Sophistication and Business Sophistication. The Enabler pillars define aspects of the conducive environment required to stimulate innovation within an economy.

• Two output pillars, which provide evidence of the results of innovation within the economy: Scientific Outputs and Creative Outputs and Well-Being. The overall measure of innovativeness of an economy is obtained by taking a simple average of the scores along the input and output pillars.

• An Enabler has the following elements under it: 1) Leadership, 2) People 3) Policy and Strategy 4) Partnership and Resources and 5) Processes. The elements that come under ‘Results’ are: 1) People Results, 2) Customer Results, 3) Society Results and 4) Key Performance Results. The ‘Enablers’ feed into the ‘Results’ and vice versa.

• If we compare all the regions [for all the pillars], the average score for Europe is the highest followed by Asia, America and Africa. This may be quite natural, given that Europe has the maximum number of developed and developing well-to-do economies. The American continent comes 3^rd, though it houses traditional innovators like USA (11^th), Canada (12^th), and strong emerging economies like Brazil (68^th) and Mexico (69^th). However, it falls in continent-wise rankings due to the poor performance of other economies in the region. [This implies that sub-regions like the Caribbean weigh down on the whole region. So, we may wonder how Barbados could be driven by innovation when it is in a less innovative region.]

Lessons from successful innovating countries

• Facilitating governments clearly set the climate for innovation, not by blocking innovation but by encouraging key factors and inputs that facilitate it. [Look at areas where Barbados is weaker in innovation, where we will see that this area is a major failing.] For example, governments have to step in to formulate efficient rules regarding patents, copyrights and handle the problem of piracy. This is one of the fields where government actions can yield positive result.

• Governments should also outline clear policies for encouraging innovation in the form of tax credits, research and development funding and policy changes. [Barbados is on the way to doing this.] [But we should note also fiscal regimes that would favour introduction of new items.] They can make it easier for companies trying to import foreign technology and ideas by making the entire process of commercialisation of ideas easier and efficient. [But you can see that this is already creating the scope for tensions in a local economy, with the clear threat that may come from the introduction of foreign competition.]

• They should also diffuse the technology throughout the economy. Governments that neglect such strategies and attempt to spur innovation in specific industries through the use of subsidies and the application of external tariffs fail to realise the negative consequences of such policies. For a country to compete internationally in today’s times it has to incorporate information technology in all aspects of its social and economic life. Governments should make huge investments in building up the national digital and IT infrastructure.

• It is necessary that a country builds up a strong base of world class educational institutes where talent can be nurtured. This talent pool is the driver of innovation and research activity in the economy. Another way to achieve a pool of highly talented work force is to open the country to high skill immigration. [Barbados may have good educational structures, but the talents being developed are not those that drive innovation.]

• Innovation requires an environment conducive to taking risks in order to flourish. A country needs to cultivate an ambiance such that it allows its entrepreneurs to reallocate capital to more productive areas whenever planed ventures do not work out as envisaged. [Barbadians are renowned for being risk averse, so do we have to accept that the national 'character' puts limitations on innovation?]

• An ecosystem of creativity with mentorship goes a long way in creating critical mass of innovative clusters. (e.g., Silicon Valley) A well-developed education system is crucial for all countries that wish to innovate. Continued excellence in mathematics and science, foreign languages and engineering will reach greater importance to cut across disparate talent pools. [Does UWI's focus militate against some of the driving trends towards innovation?]

• Another interesting trend is the absorption and application of existing knowledge in new innovative ways to transform life and economy at the grass roots level (e.g., exploiting modern mobile technology to control and operate irrigation pumps from a distance; micro-finance).

• Rethinking partnerships–between industry, universities, governments to create more innovative clusters, to create more open innovation models, to create solutions for a sustainable future by facing the challenges of climate, environment–are essentially innovations that can no longer be carried out in silos or in isolation. [Again, are government and UWI too isolated in their interactions with other parts of the economy/society?]
  

Lessons from small developed countries

• Denmark (5.5 mill people, 16k sq miles), ranks 5th: Small countries like Denmark face a big challenge as these nations must seek to compete head-on with the research power of, say, the US and China - in contrast to what Sweden has done.

• Danish model teaches us that innovative societies do not have to invent lots of things themselves: in fact, this news must come as rather a relief to many smaller countries around the world. What aspiring wealthy states have to do is to rapidly identify clever inventions by others and sense where they can best be fitted into current society.

• Danish model requires an educated workforce and educated consumers. It requires a population willing to communicate needs with each other, to learn about technology all their lives. There must be good relations between managers and staff, so that the latest changes do not pass decision-makers by.

• Denmark has all these things, because the structure of its society is flat: there are no great income and class differences, no great hierarchies in the workplace.

• Singapore, ranks 7th. Its impressive success had come in large part from a technology-centered, engineering, top-down kind of social development. In 2002, the “Remaking Singapore” initiative was launched to turn Singapore into a world center of creativity, innovation, and design. These new capacities are associated with a human-centered, social science, bottoms-up model. A hub for the electronics, semiconductor, pharmaceutical, and bio-tech industries every year Singapore gives 100 scholarships to science and engineering students, funding their doctorate programs in foreign universities. The $650 million program, launched in 2000, is now seeing its first PhDs return to Singapore, where they work in government research labs or local universities for several years.

• Government commitment to education is one reason many large drug makers have made Singapore a base for their manufacturing and research. In Singaporean fashion, the government is redesigning the education system to promote creativity among the young. But risk of new generation migrating to US, Canada, Australia, and government is main initiator of new entrepreneurial ventures.

Barbados' innovation strengths and weaknesses

• Some in Barbados have asked 'Why, with all the knowledge available of what needs to be done to foster innovation, was it not being done? Was the fault with policy makers in different ways?' One basic answer is that innovation is taking place, but is perhaps not as much as is possible or is not driven by science and technology . However, the GII data for Barbados indicate that the basis for innovation is not broad and has key weaknesses to offset some important strengths.
  

• The GII country details show that Barbados is very strong in its ICT infrastructure (ranked 1^st, largely on its leading the world in broadband access per 100 inhabitants (1^st). It is also strong in core social areas such as political environment (17^th), human capacity (18^th) and quality of education institutions (24^th).

• But, it is significant that Barbados is very weak in areas that help business development: Business sophistication (66^th), Business conditions provided by public institutions 68^th), Market sophistication (94^th) Knowledge application (106^th), Investor/creditor conditions (110^th), Openness to foreign competition (121^st), Creative outputs and well being (131^st).

Some implications for Barbados

• The weaknesses in business development affect much more that innovation.
  

• What can innovation can do to raise productivity, not just of labour but of all parts of production? What is Barbados willing to do to bring new products and ideas to bear to make workers more productive, make financial investments more productive, make machinery more productive, and make land more productive? It is useful to remember that combinations of these elements may be needed to get the improvement desired, such as new ways of working with existing machines, new financial instruments that could help businesses, getting different machines to work with existing land and crops, etc. [We have heard many comments that financial support is a major constraint to starting business, but we need to look too at the unfriendly business environment created by government. It may not be obvious but the nature of corporate structures in Barbados works against innovation, as these are largely family-owned businesses with interlocking directorships.]

• In the case of economies based largely on service delivery, such as Barbados, it is a mistake to focus too heavily on science and technology as the basis of innovation, because the intelligent application of labour (people) can pay huge dividends. Barbados could be more efficient if it used current technology well (e.g., by automation and computerisation), but it can become more efficient by doing things smarter or differently.

• Using tried technology in a new setting—i.e., Barbados—may be the way to go in many sectors, e.g., generalising recycling as part of a strategy to reduce use of landfills, or projects to use recycled tyres for energy production. Offering to foreigners high quality medical care and wellness as a core element of a tourism strategy. [Policy to encourage widespread use of solar panels for water heating was indicative of drive to shift toward sustainable/renewable energy use, but it was not followed by other bold moves in the same direction.] [Interesting that some tried technologies which have been widely applied elsewhere meets resistance or limited take-up in Barbados, e.g., ATM/electronic banking, where Barbadians seem to want to hold onto old ways that involved face-to-face transactions.]
  

• Doing the same thing with a new audience, e.g., establishing road tennis or draughts matches—where Barbadians have uniqueness or special skills to offer—as 'shows' for tourist attractions (akin to The Bahamas taking its annual junkanoo festival and packaging it year round as a tourist spectacle). In some senses, this can be seen as better marketing, but that is still innovative.

• But, it is also important to understand that innovation brings risks (and we need to see these in the broadest sense), not least because it may make current ways of operation and existing goods or services obsolete and in the end threaten livelihoods of some to improve the livelihoods of others, and not necessarily in the same time or the same degree. So, applying innovation may meet resistance as it also means a willingness to see (perhaps significant) social (and political?) change, and changes in the established economic order. At issue, is whether the society is really built on encouraging and embracing change and newness, in particular, seeing social and economic mobility. [For Barbados, this leads to thinking about the contentious issue of political power in the hands of the demographic group that does not hold most economic power, and how that division has hampered the progress of the black majority in the country.]

• This is not said primarily to spark controversy, remembering that innovation is disruptive, but to highlight what is an important feature of social organizations. They are often zero-sum games, where one person or group can win only if another loses, or at least one may need to guard against that being the case. [The US is famed for allowing significant social mobility through economic activities based on innovation. This has also been the basis of the so-called 'economic miracles' in south East Asia, and it can also be seen in the rapid transformation of certain former Soviet Union countries. We can look at the Caribbean in a contrasting way as a region that only has a limited amount of social mobility.] [We also have to understand how social movement of people can accelerate the risk of over-turning existing socio-economic and political arrangements.]

• What is the incentive for those who have social, political and economic power to encourage innovation, if they are not able to capture or exploit the gains themselves in some way? In a small geographical and economic space there may be more pressure to suppress innovation as the chances of it upsetting the status quo are much greater.

• Important to see innovation as not just part of the role of the private sector. Public sector agencies, need to innovate too, and new ways of thinking, administering, and delivering public services can offer significant productivity gains for both the public sector and those in the private sector who benefit from the service delivery. But, applying technological progress to service delivery should make us mindful that if productivity increases that may mean the demise of existing job positions. Public sector reform that is only talk and no change--i.e., perpetuating inefficiencies--can actually be a great brake on innovation and productivity, as it reduces credibility of policy statements and initiatives, which too often have a history of 'words without deeds'. [Examples: Duplication of information about citizens across government departments. Immigration data that is not used to track temporary workers and visa status violations.
  

• To what extent are policy initiatives second- even third-best solutions because politicians and civil servants are locked into a certain mindset and use information inefficiently? [Pictures of long lines of people waiting to file income tax returns; stories of interminable waits at Licensing Authority and Immigration Department are vivid reminders that in some areas of public service delivery the country does not appear to have made much progress.]

• One way people get around the constraint of seeing their innovation come into play is to leave the country and get their chance abroad. That's an immediate loss for the nation, though over time the value may still accrue to the country through financial flows from the materialisation of the innovation and also the 'identity' element that may go with it. [In that regard, one can look at the marketing of Rihanna as a major innovation—taking a Barbadian and making her into an international star, which opens the door to others who are prepared to go that route. In fact, the novelty factor may be in not insisting in pushing a national image.]

• Smallness may put a heavier premium on selectivity in terms of areas for innovation. It may be impossible to develop feasible research and development activities across the board. But it may be possible to focus on some areas where there is a sort of 'comparative advantage' on a national or regional basis, so tropical focus may be relevant. It may be very natural for the small country to look outward to get maximum value from implementing ideas [variation on the theme of exporting].

• Barriers to entry by innovation may exist within an economy: these may be consciously and blatantly maintained or 'institutionalised' and subtle. [One may look at the protectionist attitude to competitive entrants to the Barbadian market as opposition to innovation, e.g., Subway, Island Grill, who have different products and different sales styles, which could threaten seriously market share of current operators.]

• Going forward, can Barbados and Barbadians find a way to think differently about itself/themselves and where it wants to go? What does it say that a society applauds lawyers and doctors above engineers and chemists? How do people respond to new approaches? Some would argue that the physical and economic limitation on small countries may constrain innovation because resources available to fund certain types of education or activities is limited. [This may be true in some senses, but keeping in mind that newness is key, size should really have little impact.]
  

In The Swim: CARIFTA Swimming Championships 2010

My musings on the just completed Carifta Swimming Championships in Kingston, Jamaica, were published by Ian Bourne on his Bajan Reporter website today. He also published several photographs I took during the first three days of the events.

Book Launch: Cave Shepherd, Worthing: March 18, 2010; 4pm

A new children's book, Brown Sugar and Spice, written by Betty Peter and illustrated by Alison Antrobus, will be launched this Thursday 4.00pm at Cave Shepherd, Worthing. Betty Peter is the younger sister of Peggy Antrobus; Alison is Peggy Antrobus' daughter.

Also on the schedule will be appearances on CBC and readings to school children at various schools. See tentative schedule below:

Wednesday 17th March 5.45am CBC Morning Show

Wednesday 17th March 10.00am Codrington School

Thursday 18th March 1.30pm St.Gabriel's School

Friday 19th March 1.15pm St. Angela's

A brief summary of the book is available at the Repeating Islands website,
http://repeatingislands.com/2009/12/15/new-book-betty-peters-brown-sugar-and-spice/, which reads as follows:

'Brown Sugar and Spice, a new children’s book that highlights Caribbean history, was launched today (December 15, 2009) in Trinidad. The book was written by Betty Peter and it targets 9 to 14-year-olds. With a great sense of humor and adventure, Brown Sugar and Spice explores colonial days, war (World War II), and illness as seen through the eyes of a young girl, Harriet'.

Transforming The Economy In The Age Of Liberalisation: Lecture By The Right Honourable Owen Arthur, MP

Former PM, the Right Honourable Owen Arthur, MP, is due to speak this evening at the Errol Barrow Centre, UWI Cave Hill Campus from 7pm (see notice alongside). It should be an interesting presentation.

Bob Marley Birthday Celebration Party!!!

The Jamaica Association of Barbados invites you to a

"Bob Marley Birthday Celebration Party!!!”

This will be held on the great legend's birthday

Saturday February 6, 2010 at the Masonic Centre, Salter’s, St. George

at 7:30pm until you say when.

Come out in you numbers to enjoy some real Jamaican food on sale!!!

Special Guest DJ BOYD (Quad Resident DJ and formerly of FAME FM) from Jamaica

Admission $20.00

Part proceeds in aid of Help Haiti Now!

Tickets available at Kingston 10 (Sheraton Mall and Bay Street)

"Everything is gonna be alright!"

When Lightning Strikes: Thoughts About Haiti's Earthquake

When disasters occur, such as this week's massive earthquake in Haiti, many of us reflect on what we would do in similar circumstances, and what we can do as those fortunate to not be in such circumstances.

Haiti, we know, is the poorest country in the western hemisphere, and it is in our backyard. On world scales, it is not the poorest and most disadvantaged of countries, but to most of us it is about the lowest we will know and see up close. One of its problems is that for two centuries it has gone through difficult economic and political times. I am not going to rehash Haiti's history here, but it has left a legacy which will be staring it in the face as it tries to get over this disaster. Failed government; malfunctioning infrastructure; damaged economy; angry people. These are not the ingredients for success. But, the world will rally and try its best to help and hope that the disaster does not happen again, and better still not soon.

My direct connections with Haiti are few, but I have friends who have Haitian roots. I can hear in their tones and see in their words the pain that comes from knowing that 'your country' is going through Hell. But what to do? In discussing this briefly last night, it seemed clear that besides offering financial aid, most of us could do little. I have an urge to go and help claw away rubble and maybe help find bodies. But, I know too that my willingness is not enough in such situations. I can easily be a hindrance, with my almost total lack of knowledge--apart from being able to speak French--of where I would be and what really is going on. But, if I could find a way to be there and help I would feel better than just looking on. I heard discussions of how best to get over the initial problems of this disaster, and much thought was being given to whether it should be an effort led by military personnel or by aid agencies. The conclusion was that this was an operation to be led by the military, for various logistical reasons, and that away from the country, much could be done and coordinated by aid agencies.

Most of us in the Caribbean think of our disasters in terms of weather-related events, such as hurricanes. But earthquakes are different. They cannot really be predicted with much accuracy, though one can know of their likelihood because of where the Earth's fault lines are: as the media are now reminding us, there is a Pacific Ocean 'ring of fire' (see link), which covers the tectonic plates covering both sides of the Pacific Ocean, and stretches through central America to the Caribbean Sea. So, it is hard to prepare for earthquakes, other than building appropriately and being aware of their occurrences: they do not happen with equal frequency and do not have seasons. When your country's last experience of something is 100-200 years ago, it's hard to expect people to know what to do. Looking back to Jamaica's history, many people talk about the 1907 earthquake, but we can see that the timing of disasters has its own rhythm (see Gleaner summary). Kingston was rebuilt to be able to withstand another earthquake. But, generally, as we know, even if the prospect of disaster is annual, as with hurricanes, we still do nothing till it's very late.

We should all send out hope to Haiti, at the very least, and those who have prayers to send should keep those flowing. Money. Time. Clothes. Other assistance. If you have it, try to share it. Former President Clinton, the U.N. special envoy to Haiti, yesterday appealed to the public to support programs that will provide food, water, shelter and medical supplies to the impoverished country: "The most important thing you can do is not to send those supplies, but to send cash," to relief agencies. As we are often told, but often ignore, we never know if disaster will strike us next.