Kindling New Tastes

Most people would agree that the past 50-60 years have seen unprecedented technological progress, and most of that has been of the electronic kind. That follows a long period of immense technological progress that was mainly of the mechanical kind, stemming from the Industrial Revolution. The latter period, we tend to characterize as the 'information age', mainly because we have seen the advent of computers as extensions of most aspects of work and home life and with that has come the packaging of large bodies of information that can be transferred without any physical movement of people or things.

After I joined the Bank of England in the early 1980s, I recall the amazement I had when I first came across a fax (or facsimile) machine and the first documents that I received and sent--loan documents to do with Mexican debt and its rescheduling. They were a few hundred pages long and I remember that it took a long time for everything to pass through. At the end, I had a reasonable copy of the blessed thing and could crawl over it at leisure. Then I encountered electronic writing in the form of word processing software and again I was amazed at what could be done with a new machine for me, portable computer--or as it was at the time a luggable computer by Compaq,which for many weeks I would lug between my office and my home (I was very fit and strong in those days). I was quite incredible to see words pop up on the screen and to then edit text and move it around with the click of a few buttons. Man, was I on the cutting edge. Then, documents were still printed out and photocopied, but gone were the days of hours of writing in manuscript, to have it typed to have it edited to have it retyped, etc. My secretary at the time was of course leery of these changes as she could see quickly that only time would stop me from not needing her particular skills of using an electronic typewriter and managing the intricacies of an IBM golf ball.

Time waits for no man it seems, and soon afterwards we moved into another world, that of electronic mail. Now, I could be anywhere in the Bank and I could get messages about all sorts of work subjects, and documents, and offer comments, edit the documents and reply and share all sorts of file. We were still in the late 1980s and my life was moving so fast that I was not sure what more I could handle. In ten years, life moved spending most of my time poring over paper documents and writing on paper, to some scrutiny of paper documents and writing mainly on a machine. We did not have or want at that time documents that were electronically edited, and those who preserved the archives and files were fighting to find ways to manage the new form in which records were being created. From binders with reams of documents we moved to information on diskettes. When there was a fire at the Bank it also showed people the weaknesses of our work practices because many of the new electronic records were never back-up and that meant having to recreate data and documents after the fire.

After I left the Bank and went to the Fund in the early 1990s came the advent of the World Wide Web and Internet pages and searches and spending more hours on the computer rather than just a few, but still having to read through mountains of paper, because the Fund produces documents in reams.

When I was based in West Africa for a few years, while I had all of this technology at my finger tips--with my communications set up by way of a satellite, or a cable connection--I had to watch and work with people who had very little electronic equipment and what was available was limited to certain officials. I had to reacquaint myself with seeing people lugging large bundles of files when it was time to discuss topics, and there I was with a diskette in my pocket.

For someone who loves to write by hand and loves pens, I was thinking the other day how little actual hand writing I now do--mainly jotting notes to myself, writing checks (very few), and signing permission forms for school.

With all of these changes resistance has always been present. People tell funny and sad stories about how some have struggled to make the transition from the world of paper and pen, to computer keyboard, screen and diskettes and now memory keys. People steadfastly refused to use the computers assigned to them and were almost literally hauled screaming and kicking to turn them on and start to work. Word ground down to a halt for some and they began to see the activities dwindle and their participation lessen as they were not following discussions electronically. We know that at the top of many organizations the leaders are not really as au fait with technology as many would like to think. Vice President Biden gave new meaning to that this week when he talked about the 'number' for the presidential web sites to deal with the stimulus package that he will oversee (www.recovery.gov). This VP did not claim to have invented the Internet so I will cut him some slack, but he did look awkward.



We know of CEOs and managers whose computers sit on their desks still covered. By contrast, we have the tech savvies like New York City's Mayor Bloomberg (he of the terminal and who has set his main office up to look like a trading room, and who fired an employee for playing computer Solitaire) and now President Obama (he of the BlackBerry), who appear to be near the front edge.

I was a bit bemused by a conversation I was in last week about reading. Here, an interesting reaction is being played out. Avid readers mainly get their jollies by inhaling the words from a printed page, usually a bookand we can say also newspapers and magazines. Many of these same avid readers spend much working and private time reading documents in electronic form (word processed or now in PDF form). But, somehow, there is a resistance to letting go of the book for an electronic reading device, such as Amazon's Kindle. No one of my generation knows life before books and newspapers, but most of us will know that the printed word was not there many centuries ago. Things were scrawled on stone, on wood, on other materials; if copies were needed then the process had to be started again. We must give thanks to the advent of the printing press, for sure.

But someone protested vociferously that the Kindle is not a book. Well, I can see that. But so what? It contains what I want to read. Those who have moved to this new device will say that by electronically downloading the text that they want they have in the space of a small paper back, maybe 1500 books and a device that will function for two weeks when fully charged. Great for travellers. Imagine being in hospital for a few days or even weeks. Those who are book lovers say "It's not the same". But nor is reading the newspaper online. They will argue that they would prefer to be able to turn the pages of the book, and also a real newspaper, but make a concession with the latter. I know for example that every day I read about a dozen newspapers online before I start work, and they cover the main UK, US, Jamaican, Bajan editions. I also read several periodicals online. My house is only cluttered with the copies of the local papers that are delivered to my house, rather than piles of other papers. One old Bajan wag gave me a reasonable argument this morning: a book is useful if you are in the bathroom and run out of toilet paper. I should really tackle this harder. In terms of the environment, I would have thought that those who urge 'think before you print this e-mail message' and live in the world of the electronic document would be amongst the first to see that buying another printed book has just chopped down the same trees that were about to be saved. I cannot argue with the excited feeling that comes from having a box or packet of books delivered, in a era where so little personal mail is sent. I would think in terms of finances that downloads are usually much cheaper than purchasing a book. I also recall a request sent to me by my wife when I was in Miami airport to look for a particular book. I would have needed to go back through security to find the book shop and perhaps risk missing my flight. It was not bought, after a sales clerk told me that it was not available. But online, it sure is. But I do need too much convincing on this.

The fundamental opposition to electronic readers I am hearing does seem like double-think to me. I was especially bemused to hear the opposition from a doyenne of a book club, and think of the problems sometimes caused because the set book is not available to everyone: "I'll read it quickly and pass on my copy" shouldn't really apply. (I remember the days of a file binder or newspaper making the office rounds and sometimes hitting my desk so long after the events as to be ridiculous.) If everyone had a Kindle texts could be downloaded in minutes, even by those who are off the island on some work assignment in deepest Belize or the jungles of Guyana. Maybe that has not been considered.

I can always handle an argument that is just about a preference, but let's see that for what it is. I am going to try one of these electronic readers over the next few days and will be interested to see if I can read it under the bed covers without a light. If so, that could be worth a year of marriage counselling. I have had a few bad instances with electronic gadgets and water, so would be wary of taking the Kindle to the bathroom, and would be very careful if I am near the swimming pool. But maybe it is less sensitive to damp than say a cell phone. I like it that the size of the typeface can be adjusted. I like it that it can be set to read the book or journal to me: that's so neat as I imagine being tired and having a book read to me. (I could see some parents using that to cheat their kids at bed time, and putting the Kindle on the pillow then walking out while the machine does the 'talking'.) Maybe, there is the 'last bastion' argument at work. True, not all change is good, and certainly not all change is welcome.

Well, I will play with this device for a few days, loaned to me by a friend, and see if it can rekindle my love of reading.

Cadogan, You're At It Again. Want To Buy A Bank?*

Every body's doing it. Governments around the world are getting their hands on banks. But why? Most of them are doing it because the banks, big and small, are going belly up after another wave of selective memory: excessive risk-taking, bad lending, poor oversight, related lending, conflicts of interest, overpaying people for what they do, etc. If governments are looking to take control of banks then they go for the major ones and let the minnows flounder and fail, believing that the system can lose the small and weak but not the big and weak. Governments are not looking to put their fingers in the pie of banks that are doing well. Why should they? Look at Citigroup, where the US government raised its common equity stake in a third bail out attempt (see Bloomberg report). Banks should really be private institutions and people in capitalist economies get nervous when they see government wanting to raise its stake. If the government wants control of things in the financial sphere they should rely on the central bank and finance ministry to set the right policies. So, why the rush in Barbados for the government to get its hands dirty again by repurchasing a majority stake in Barbados National Bank (BNB), which was sold off in 2003?

It's all in the name? So, the bank that was sold has 'Barbados' and 'National' in its title and these represent legal property. Of course, those words have value not least because everyone in Barbados knows them, loves them, and maybe trusts them with a lot of money. The bank carries the colour of the national flag--blue, yellow and green--in its logo. When Trinidad's Republic Bank bought BNB, a change of name would have raised more hackles than were necessary. The bank did not get an image make over to look like its Trinidadian parent. If it had been Citibank as the buyer, then they would have come with a bigger name and with a splash that many would regard as "Yes, we reach, now, Iyah!" Well, that would have been true up until a few months ago, now Citibank's name stinks.

Not a Bajan bank? Well, I don't know what a Bajan bank is. BNB has the colours of Barbados, is located in Barbados, has mainly Bajan customers, and more.Yes, it is run by Trinis. But so what? When it was run by Bajans it went into emergency care. When BNB was put up for sale, it was taken up by a foreign entity because the infamous risk aversion of Bajans meant that not enough of them wanted to stump up and take pieces of the bank that were on offer. So, one could say "You had your chance, and you decided that you had better use for your money."

The bank is not serving the people's needs? Seems that the bank has been ripping ahead as far as shareholders are concerned and they probably give wider service than their local competitors. When the original pieces of the bank were established they were there to meet certain needs, namely, Barbados Savings Bank – 1852; Sugar Industry Agricultural Bank – 1907; National Housing Corporation (Public Officers Housing Loan Fund) – 1958. As the bank developed from the mid-1970s, it continued to meet these needs. Into the early 1990s, the fact that the bank was failing became apparent and then over the next decade its balance sheet was cleaned up, and provisions and write offs were made, the bank moved from losses to profits and the bank improved its capital base. Like it or not, an 'unholy alliance' of the Government of Barbados, the Central Bank of Barbados, the Inter-American Development Bank, and the IMF was instrumental in showing the bank's bad loanss problems and setting out a way to get over them. All of this was happening at a time when Barbados' economy was at a modern nadir.

Balls of confusion and political football? When PM David Thompson made his Budget speech in July year, this is what he had to say about BNB (see Budget text):

• The Barbados Government owns a substantial number of shares in both the Barbados National Bank and the Insurance Corporation of Barbados, but in both companies, the Government is a minority shareholder, and so is in no real position to direct the strategy of either company.

• At the same time, Government has been advised that the value of its shareholding in those two companies is approximately $200 million and that the rate of the cash dividend that Government receives on an annual basis on these shares is less than the rate of interest thatGovernment pays on its borrowing. Since these shares are no longer useful in determining the strategic direction of either of these companies, Government has taken the decision to offer these shares firstly to Barbadian individuals, theNational Insurance Board and local companies and then, if necessary, to the current majority shareholders of the two companies, if Barbadians do not take up all of the shares.

• The proceeds of these sales will be used to fund part of the upgrading and expansion of the QEH.
  

So, less than a year ago, the government felt no need to want to be the majority owner of BNB. What has changed to make for a reversal of a clearly stated policy? In current circumstances, some would speculate that the government smells trouble for the bank and cannot feel comfortable that the ultimate parent and its national government will stand up and assist if needed. So, it may be a pre-emptive strike.

Governments have a bad track record in running businesses? If governments go into owning a bank, many would suspect that its performance would deteriorate. A government can step in to stop a certain rot setting in or going too far, but that should be a temporary state. When government-owned banks exist they often end up being an extension of government policy. Loans get directed to individcuals, companies and projects the government prefers (see research report). Business decisions are always tinged with political consideration, as shown by some empirical research, which summarized that:

• State-owned banks charge lower interest rates than do privately owned banks to similar or identical firms, even if the company is able to borrow more from privately owned banks. State-owned banks mostly favor firms located in depressed areas and large firms. The lending behavior of state-owned banks is affected by the electoral results of the party affiliated with the bank: the stronger the political party in the area where the firm is borrowing, the lower the interest rates charged.

Fear of CL Financial/CLICO fall out? This is the one thing that may make some sense. CL Financial Group is due to sell its holdings of Republic Bank. That puts a cloud over BNB. However, that has to be resolved. Republic Bank, meanwhile, says it has no intention of selling BNB. So, this will be an interesting wrestling match. Think of it. Bajans did not want BNB. The Barbados governments it wants to buy bank controlling shares in BNB. The onwer of the majority of BNB says it has no interest in selling them. Hee-hee!

Undermining the Central Bank of Barbados? One big concern is that the Governor has been saying repeatedly, even yesterday, that the banking sector is secure. The system is 'sound'; banking system liquidity has not been a problem; the banking sector has performed well. If all of that is correct, why does the government feel the need to be involved with the major bank? It is curious and even a bit baffling.

Who will pay for it? If the bank is to be bought there needs to be financing. The government said it needed money from selling the bank to implement a certain health policy. If it does not sell the bank it will need to fill that financing need--philanthropic capital has been mentioned. If funds are to be found to buy BNB, where will that come from? Barbados can borrow, but would borrowing to buy a healthy and profitable bank be the best use of such funds? What of other needs on the government's agenda--stressing again that there is already a set of policies laid out in the 2008 Budget. That higher borrowing will need repaying and I cannot see how owning the bank is going to address that future need. How will the new fiscal situation fit with other economic policy objectives?

The government's flip has come as a surprise and many will see nationalism or patriotism in this somersault. But those are not good reasons for making financial policy.

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*To understand the role of Cadogan see previous post, Follow Fashion Kill Cadogan.

As If We Knew Each Other

I love the familiarity that Americans try to create with all and sundry. Within seconds of a first meeting, we are 'buddies'. First names flow like between good friends. US politicians are not known to bother with formality, and President Bush just refers to 'Tony" (Mr. Blair) and now 'Gordon' (Mr. Brown) and 'Nicolas' (President Sarkozy) and 'Angela' (Chancellor Merkel). Americans are not burdened by the rules of 'the old country' so do not fall over when they meet certain dignitaries, for example, such as will soon be the case with former Senator John Warner, who will have bestowed on him the title of 'honorary of the Knight Commander Most Excellent Order of the British Empire' (KBE) by Her Majesty Queen Elizabeth II. He should NOT be referred to as 'Sir John', as this is an honorary title not a real one. Whatever else is done, he should not be referred to 'Sir Warner'; that kind of appellation would apply if he had been ennobled, and become Lord Warner of Virginia, let's say. It's a bit complicated, but pretty clear, really. But none of this will bother most Americans, who will still refer to 'John', though I suspect that the novelty of the knighthood may lead to a few uttered "Sir John".

The presidency does not hold the same awe for Americans as does the monarchy for the English. So, Americans feel fine referring to the president as POTUS (president of the United States of America). Indeed, it goes further to cover the first family. So, Michelle Obama is often referred to as FLOTUS (first lady of the United States of America, who is now like a flowering lotus of the USA). I have not seen it used but I would like to popularise two additional acronyms. FICUS, for first children of the United States. Then, as from April, if news reports are right, FIDUS, first dog of the United States. Michelle's mother does not lend herself easily to acronymization, but FOGUS might work, first and only grandmother of the United States.

The new president is creating a lovely familiarity in the way that he deals with people. There he was in Congress on Tuesday evening, ahead of his speech, giving man hugs (they look like regular hugs, but because men are involved it seems that we need the adjective), and whispering invitations to the White House (for those who could hear or lip read). Michelle too (see, I have already dropped her full name), who hugs and kisses everyone she meets at formal occasions just as if they are visiting in her own real home.

People feel so at ease with the current first couple that it is not uncommon now to see a lot of touching of these often distant individuals, as could be seen by at least one female politician giving the POTUS a back rub as he entered Congress the other evening and was stopped for a few words with a politician. Too sweet!

This kind of public 'love in' will no doubt bring forward invidious comparisons with the current president and his predecessors, but it should not. Each person is different and the level of comfort in social settings in not prescribed. However, I personally like the warm, fuzzy, feeling that POTUS is giving at least some of us.

Trapped By Your Past?

I was asked a question on the radio yesterday about economic policy choices, in this case between letting the exchange float or to keep it fixed. In truth, the question was posed more pointedly as it looked at why some Caribbean countries had devalued their currencies while Barbados had maintained a fixed rate against the US dollar. What struck me about my reply was the nagging question, "Would I have chosen to devalue if I knew then what I know now?" Unfortunately, it is hard to experiment with certain elements of economic policy.

I saw an interesting article in today's Gleaner that looks at the varied economic experience of Barbados and Jamaica (see article). What it highlights for me is how a country gets trapped by a decision: you develop institutions and ways of thinking that are geared to that choice, and it is very hard to break away from that choice. For example, Jamaica has experienced much higher inflation and lower economic growth than Barbados--a deadly combination in economic terms, as you usually want to avoid each of these and often experience one, but to suffer both is terrible. People have developed expectations of prices rising fast and of economic activity floundering, even to the extent that when data suggest that prices are not rising or even falling, or that growth is not slow or negative, people have a hard time believing the data. That reluctance may be justified to the extent that those who think they are feeling the pain really are feeling some pain. What it suggests is that Jamaicans may need to experience a bigger positive shift for people to be convinced that things have moved forward.

By contrast, Barbados has developed a mindset that seeks to keep prices under control (even price fixing) and wage negotiation arrangements that do not allow for a lot of large increases. The country may be more sensitive to small movements in prices and growth so reacts more speedily if it appears to be headed in the wrong direction.

Now, if a politician or technician wanted to make the case for a major change in economic policy, for example, to change the exchange rate policy, it would not be a series of arguments that would stand or fall on their technical merits. An economy is full of moving parts and where it stands now is where it has reached after adjusting to the various winds of policy changes (domestic and international, determined by humans) and natural events (originating within the country or outside). Even if you looked at the outcome of those two types of things you can see that there are many possible positive and negative outcomes. Also, people's experience with a floating exchange rate tends to lead them to believe that a fixed rate cannot be sustained--the country has had a hard time holding the rate stable for any sustained period. Those who say that the movement of the exchange rate is reflecting the real economic situation may also believe that the rate has a way to go before it can reach a stable level. Those who are committed to a fixed exchange rate will show all the merits and benefits that seem to have flowed from having that.

Because experimenting with policy is difficult, we often have to look at the experience of those who made different choices. So, for Barbados and Jamaica, people often look across the Caribbean and see a 'success' (Barbados) and a 'failure' (Jamaica) and attribute that to a certain policy stand.

But good policy choices can also turn out bad. I worked in two of the Baltic countries--small countries with no natural resources but highly educated populations--some 15 years ago (Latvia and Estonia), when they were moving from being a part of the Soviet Union to become independent nations in the mid-1990s. Put simply, each country decided to fix its exchange rate; one decided to do so in a fairly conventional way (Latvia using the Special Drawing Right [SDR] as its peg, initially), the other (Estonia) decided to have a currency board, whereby the rate is fixed and the country holds at least an amount of foreign exchange to cover a certain amount of domestic currency that is in circulation. Each choice depended on following some rules about how policy should be conducted, and relied much on controlling the government budget. Both countries wanted to become members of the European Union within a decade. Each liberalized its economy and made it easier for foreign investors. Both started to borrow abroad. Both grew very fast and saw inflation at relatively low levels.

I remember the discussions with each country in those early days. The Latvians thought that ' IMF policy proposals were 'too soft' and wanted to see more fiscal adjustment and faster; the mission urged caution. The Estonians were often told that a currency board would not work and the budgetary discipline was hard for a fledgling economy with many development needs; they would have none of that. Both countries tried to simplify their tax regimes, with single rates but rigorous enforcement, hoping to discourage evasion, and that broadly worked in raising government revenue. Both countries gained accession to the EU in 2004 (in the process, Latvia changed its peg to the Euro). They were viewed as economic 'rising stars'.

Then the world changed, and if we fast forward, we now see these countries on the brink of economic collapse and financial sector crises. The heavy reliance on foreign capital and borrowing is now turning sour. Investors in the form of western European banks are pulling out and the costs of borrowing have risen dramatically; the large deficits on the balance of payments current account are now becoming a major burden.

The economic problems have quickly been complicated by political crises and major protests by citizens in general and workers in particular as wage restraint policies were resisted. One of the countries, Latvia, has had to turn again to the IMF in recent weeks for emergency support of their 'stabilization' policies (see IMF press release). As is said clearly, 'The program is centered on maintaining Latvia’s exchange rate peg while recognizing that this calls for exceptionally strong domestic policies and substantial international financial assistance.' Latvia wants to maintain its currency peg and eventually adopt the Euro, but will have to endure some harsh measures for that to be possible. These include a tough incomes policy. The country will also try to protect social spending. Put together, the need for fiscal tightening brings the possibility that recession could be protracted. Then to add insult to injury, Standard & Poor's, the credit rating agency, downgraded the country's bonds to 'junk' status today (see report) – rare for a sovereign state – and said it may reduce its creditworthiness ranking for sister republics Lithuania and Estonia. It also said it may further cut Latvia's credit rating later this year or in 2010. Talk is now rife that the country may default on its debt. The PM resigned earlier this week. The EU is talking about needing to bail out the country. Aie, caramaba!

Estonia has so far not had to turn to the IMF but faces similar economic policy challenges (see IMF press release). It too wants to retain its currency peg and currency board, but will have to make some tough decisions in its 2009 budget as the current fiscal position is not viewed as sustainable, given a desire to adopt the Euro.

Both countries believe that they adopted the right path nearly 20 years ago, and so far discussion has not focused on reverting to another policy regime.

While you cannot set up an experiment with economic policy it is always a living experiment.

Rough days ahead are for these particular countries, but also rough days are ahead for Jamaica, Barbados and most other countries whatever choices had been made in the past.

Howzat? That's How It Is.

Test cricket is coming back to Barbados, and so too is a bit of chaos when trying to buy tickets. Today's Nation captures it well in words and pictures (see report):

'Three days before the start of the match, hundreds of fans turned up at the ticket booths at Kensington Oval, but many left annoyed after having to spend more than two hours in the line.'

So was it necessary for the scene to be the following? Long lines at Kensington Oval; multiple lines that then had to become one--with some ensuing disagreements; opening times not those advertised; 15-20 minutes to deal with each customer; etc. The reactions I have seen and heard from the cricket authorities suggest that they had one view about how many and who would buy tickets and will not accept that there was another way things could have been done. They are not having any responsibility for disorganization and not being prepared for a large demand just ahead of the matches. But why not another outlet for sales (the malls at Sheraton, Warrens, somewhere on the west coast, somewhere out near the east cost)? Why not the possibility of buying online or by mail for locals well ahead of the matches? They mentioned that arrangements had been made with tour operators to make tickets available in the UK ahead of travel, so that English fans would be ready to watch. But even a visit now to a web site showed the following:

• At the time of printing ticket prices have yet to be finalised by the West Indies Cricket Board. As soon as our ticket allocations have been confirmed we will contact everyone who has booked to advise the cost of your Test/ODI tickets. Test match tickets are sold to international supporters on a ‘season ticket’ basis, with no refund for unused tickets. One Day tickets are sold on a per match basis.

So, it seems that in the best circumstances, English fans would have been possible to commit funds for Test matches, on a see-or-lose basis, or buy for one-day matches. But I would be surprised if people were accustomed to buying this way.

Some friends told me how they endured two days of this chaos to get tickets for an uncle from Grenada. They are not cricket fans themselves and the last time they went to a match a riot broke out. These ladies have full time jobs. Why was the ticket sale window at Kensington closed at the weekend so that locals could more easily try to shop for the matches? When people talk about low productivity in the country they need to think about activities that waste working people's time. We the lessons of Cricket World Cup too hard to learn?

Many local people like to suggest that when things are done here they are far superior than if done elsewhere in the region. Oh yea? Why is the system so easily bowled out by these easy-to-read deliveries? I'm stumped that the 'planners' can drop the ball so easily. Time to go back to the nets and have a bit more practice. The mantra for things like this has been "That's how it is." Someone tried to tell me that it's part of the charm of living in the Caribbean. I retort "That's how you allow it to be."

Not Rumours Or Baseless Statements

The discussions about economic and financial issues is heating up, and it's getting very political very quickly. Some local commentators, notably The Barbados Advocate, has had a beef about remarks that it implies are reckless and baseless. People here are struggling to get a good handle on what is going on, and that is a recipe for heightened, not lessened, concerns. Almost on cue, comes a Lone Ranger.

The IMF is often reviled but one thing it does is look at economic and financial issues in depth and tends to do that for every member country, so has immense international expertise built up over decades. The IMF made its annual check-up visit to Barbados soon after the change of government last year (March-April 2008). Part of its mission's work was to prepare a 'Financial Sector Stability Assessment' for Barbados, and this was published in a 'timely' manner last week, on February 20 (see report). We need to note that the assessment was completed last summer, since when economic financial developments worldwide have worsened, and the region has been hit by two major financial headwinds with CL Financial's Trinidad operations needing a bail out and Antigua-based Stanford International Bank and its owner Sir Allen Stanford facing US$ 8 billion fraud charges by the US Securities and Exchange Commission.

Readers of the report will focus on different things. But, for me, the report flagged a pertinent problem as seen some 9 months ago. The reports says 'Barbadian financial system has proved to be resilient and, so far, has not been affected by the turmoil in mature financial markets'. But it sent out a salient warning for the insurance sector:

• The lack of adequate supervision of the insurance sector exposes the sector to material risks. Profitability and capital adequacy in this sector are difficult to assess due to incomplete and inadequate data. Single negative events may significantly damage the reputation of a jurisdiction in an increasingly regional and global market. Although the mission noted the introduction of on-site inspections, the sector remains largely self-regulated owing to continuing shortages of qualified staff, inadequate regulation, and out-of-date financial reporting. Greater cooperation and exchange of information, particularly with the authorities in Trinidad and Tobago, are necessary to facilitate effective assessment of financial soundness and the protection of Barbadian policyholders by the supervisor.

Key recommendations for the financial sector included:

For the banking sector:

• Strengthen cross-border consolidated supervision, including establishing a clear legal framework for the consolidated supervision of banking groups and enhancing home/host cooperation.
• Strengthen regulation and supervision for large exposures and related-party exposures, including setting up the regulatory aggregate limits on total large exposures and related-party exposures on a consolidated basis.

For the insurance sector:

• Develop standards on corporate governance, market conduct, internal controls (including asset and derivative controls, particularly in the case of the offshore market), asset and liability valuation, and a solvency standard for life insurers with a view to enhancing the observance of the IAIS principles.
• Improve the timeliness of supervisory returns, and redesign processes for onsite inspection, and offsite analytical support.
• Collaborate with the Trinidadian authorities in the supervision of larger cross-border groups.
  

In IMF-speak, they saw major problems in the fact that supervision was inadequate and that collaboration was weak between national authorities concerning enterprises that worked across their borders. Put a little less nicely, things were not really being taken as seriously as they should be and there was a certain parochial coziness that could facilitate some major problem.

I will let this report percolate a few days and see what is made of it.

Stormy Weather

I am going to tread lightly around the subject of financial calamity--though I guess that my choice of words already suggests that I have more concerns than feelings of comfort. Sunday's 'Brass Tacks' on VOB radio had a discussion about the regional and national impact of recent financial difficulties faced by financial enterprises in the region, particularly, CL Financial and Stanford International Bank. As I said on the radio, there are many things to discuss, and I kept my intervention to aspects of economic consequences that come from the importance as employers of the two financial groups and their significance also as lenders and takers of deposits to/from within the Caribbean and further afield. My good friend, Avi, had offered me some thoughts about the need for regional coordination and I left him to throw those out rather than steal his thunder. Some friends here, who are entrepreneurs, asked me some questions during the day about the level of understanding I believe politicians have about some of what is going on. I had to say that I thought that many did not have much of an idea, and that was not meant to be belittling; the area is fraught with aspects that even so-called experts find baffling. I have had a long career in international finance and I am discovering things everyday, and old understandings are constantly being challenged.

The early indications are that CL Financial's problems in Trinidad are local in origin to the extent that they are not a direct result of association with the problems with sub-prime mortgages or residential lending in the US or Europe but come from the impact of lower international energy prices on local projects financed by the group (especially in ethanol production). On the face of it, the CL Financial's balance sheet does not suggest that the financial problems swirling around the world's biggest banks are not the same as those rearing their heads in for that institution. Nonetheless, the implications for the local and regional financial scene are immense because the group has its hands and feet in many aspects of financial and industrial life and is intertwined in various forms throughout the region. It would be naive to ignore the importance of the group in financing government, not least through tax payments. What happens to it must be important and avoid its failure is understandable. If there is wider fallout than in Trinidad the situation could get very messy. The actions taken to date are meant to stave off the most obvious problems, but because of gaps in supervision and lack of certain timely data the real impacts may not become apparent for a while. It's with that optic that one should recall the recent indication from Trinidad's central bank governor that things are worse than initially suggested.

Stanford International Bank's problems appear to be the result of a man doing some dishonest things and pretending to be investing but doing nothing much else than fleecing people locally and internationally and putting up a great front as a financial hotshot who was doing safe things with people's money. But a scam of sorts was being played and many were suckered in by those good old con tricks: the good looks, the smart dress, the apparent fancy life style, etc. For Antigua, the immediate impacts run the risk of being as devastating as a major natural disaster. The Stanford group, both as a local banking presence and as an international banking operation was the main private sector employer. Stanford came to personify Antigua, not least because all of his 'belly' was out on show as you arrived at the airport. The known links with the government were very close and personal. What the freezing of Stanford assets may mean for government finances will soon become apparent; the taking over by the East Caribbean Central Bank of the local bank, Bank of Antigua, and reportedly consolidating the operations of other Stanford banks in its jurisdiction may be a shoring up operation but I wont guess where that may end. Already, those local or regional activities financed by Stanford are feeling the cold wind of clothes being blown to shreds: cricket (and whoever heard of a Texan who was crazy over cricket?) will be the immediate casualty and those who were responsible for getting into bed with Sir Allen may have many awkward questions to answer. Others who got political contributions, such as US politicians, are running fast to shed any sign of that money, and charities will be the immediate beneficiaries, though one has to wonder if they will have to repay the money after the SEC's fraud investigations are over.

I mentioned yesterday that some fall out from the wider international financial crisis is only now beginning to have its impact on Barbados and perhaps more of these effects are going to filter through in coming months. A Bajan tourism project has reportedly run into financing problems that may curtail or halt permanently its progress and reports indicate that two major banks that are in real trouble, Britain's Royal Bank of Scotland and Iceland-owned Kaupthing Singer and Friedlander, are behind the financing (see Caribbean NetNews report of February 21). The implications are not rocket science and should be no surprise. Once it has become clear that there is problem with a financier, for example, alternative sources are going to be approached and may come forward, but if they do not, then the reality has to be accepted. Governments have a tendency to feel that they have to fix everything, so in no time, they are stepping into business when they have no business in business. Politicians love taking credit but they also hate being pointed to as 'the problem', so intervention often happens too often as a form of butt protection, and few people like being the butt of criticism or the person to whom people point and say "But he/she could have done something."

The scurrying to shore up local and regional financial institutions shows that things can change fast. Barbados' central bank governor said a few weeks ago that problems would surface later rather than sooner; but later can arrive quickly (see Caribbean 360 report from September 2008). Winds can change rapidly, as we know this past weekend when they ripped the island.

Local financial officials face a huge challenge in the next few weeks to shore up financial institutions, retain public confidence, not wastefully engage public funds, let businesses work out their problems, and keep their political shirts on. We live in very interesting times.

All Together Now

One of my readers living in the UK wrote to me over the weekend lamenting the 'treatment' he was getting from an arm of the Barbadian bureaucracy. He got my attention not because of the honey that he poured all over me by saying how he loved my 'articulate blogs' (meaning that they meander or that they are wordily wise?), and that he woke every morning "looking forward to reading my] latest pearls of wisdom...from half a world away". Come on, now. Is this the stuff or what? Booyaka!

He had a fresh memory from my blogs about how difficult it was to get people in Barbados officialdom to give 'service'. He wants to do the decent thing: he has a job; he's got the girl; he's got the ring; he's got good intentions; he has the desire to make it a romantic occasion and 'seal the deal' in the lovely Caribbean--Barbados, to boot. He knows that there may be a few administrative hurdles to clear. But does he have what it takes to jump through the hoops of fire presented by 'Bimbu' (my term of endearment now for Bajan bureaucracy)? Does he have great balls of fire?

He has tried to inform himself of what needs to be done and knows that two people, hoping to get married, should present themselves at the Ministry of Home Affairs. With the power of the Internet at his finger tips, he asked them a simple question : "Do you need to make an appointment or do you just turn up and wait?" The poor boy: he got everything back, except the answer! So, in good polite fashion, wrote again: "Is it possible that someone could answer the questions I posed please?" He should have added 'pretty', but let's hope that that omission wont get him kneecapped. He could be forgiven for thinking that this experience was the written equivalent of encountering one of those interminable voice mail loops where you get taken for a long ride, accompanied by terrible music, when all you want to do is speak to a representative: "For English, press 1. Para espanol, dos. To hear your balance, press 3. For enquiries about payment, press 4. For all other enquiries, press 5. ... I do not understand your reply. For English...."

Well, he has that strong British phlegm and hopes to get married next time he visits Bim, probably in a month's time, when he hopes to continue his role as 'a great supporter' of the Holders Season. His hopes, however, now rest in the arms of the authorities, not those of his betrothed! If I could give him a wedding present, it would be to present the couple with the head of the official who sent him that useless reply.

People talk about the life blood of an economy and how in Barbados there is a need for that to flow better, in the sense that the country needs a greater appreciation of what it takes to satisfy the tourists or foreign visitors. Encourage them to have a great time here, and to spend freely and fully. But, like we taste on a near daily basis, those who visit often fall foul of the fact that the team is not all kicking the ball in the same direction. Part of the problem is that normal management headache, whereby parts of the organization do not see their objectives as the same as other units. We see it in the international financial crisis: banks need government bail outs, but their personnel departments are still spending money on junketing. Hello! I imagine that in Home Affairs the staff do not have a vision of themselves as 'tourist ambassadors'. But they are, and here is an example of how unwittingly the door to better tourism can be firmly slammed. Our man is an exception in that he WILL be coming, whatever.

Another way to look at what is going on, and needs to be appreciated, is to consider the rest of my reader's thoughts. He shared with me his concern about the economic downturn in the UK: "...people who should know keep telling me that the UK is about to go 'belly-up' ... I keep wondering why I didn't emigrate to Australia when I had the chance, although I might by now have got more than my fingers burned (if you'll forgive the cruel joke)...Well I'm still in the UK and I suspect that my next visit to Bim will be my last for some time, because of the way the financial winds are blowing..." A trip from England to Barbados is a luxury, and it is the sort of thing that people are thinking of chopping out of their lives, at least for a while. People love being in the Caribbean's warm water, but they are not going to put themselves into hot water to get that.

Further, I cannot speculate that this man ever wanted to come to live in Barbados, but as a regular visitor, there is a strong likelihood that in the right circumstances he would consider it. His frequent visits mean something. But, general financial considerations in his home country mean that he may become a permanent loss to these shores. He reflects what some of us have been warning: that the UK's economic woes will have significant effect on Barbados' tourism. But he also represents a possible permanent loss as someone who could have been a bigger economic player by coming to live and work here. Both things represent big losses. Thinking of 'Bajans first' when it comes to jobs misses the very simple point that an economy will grow with jobs of all types provided and taken by people of all types. This man is an entrepreneur and if he were captured then things could look better for a range of Bajans. You have to have a very odd view of economics to think that only 'national' things are of value.

The lessons of this episode are clear to me. There will be a happy ending. The man will get the bride and they will sail off into the sunset. I will make an effort to persuade the couple to visit Barbados again after their wedding, and I will put to them the idea of relocating here. I will paint as positive a picture of daily life as I can, and try to coax them that with several daily flights to Blighty they could be 'back home' quickly for a weekend's football watching or tennis at Wimbledon. It may be a hard sell to tell them that their money will go further here than in the UK. But, I will try to show that here is a better option than Oz. I wont suggest that the government offer the man some land to build a house or anything like that, but if is money is good and plentiful, someone might want to sweet up the boy a little. As Jamaicans say, "Dis a no likkle man we a talk bout. Is a big money man."

Government and public officials need to see better the big economic picture. Doing a job is fine but you have to figure out how bread gets into your mouth. Sitting behind a desk and tapping computer keys and shuffling paper is not what is really making this economy turn around. It's foreign visitors and foreign financial companies that drive much of the money flows. Sugar is sweet for the economy but it does not provide a lot of real juice. A broader set of people in the country need to realise that 'those foreigners' are their friends and providers. It may not be an easy message to put across, but keep discouraging the foreigners and see what will happen. If you want to believe that all the Bajans in all the world have enough money to keep this country afloat then dream on.

I Want To Be Me.

Yesterday an acquaintance posed to me her dilemma. She is a married woman of UK origin, who gained the privilege of Bajan citizenship several years ago. She married a Bajan. She has a Bajan identity card that carries her married name (let's call it 'Holding'), which is different from her maiden name. Most of her basic identity documents are in her maiden name (let's call it 'Petrovic'). She has a Bajan driver's license, that is now expired and needs to be renewed; it is in her married name. She tried to renew the driver's licence and have the name changed to her maiden name. Guess what? "Sorry, madam, we cannot do that because then the driver's licence would not match your ID card."

My solution was to just apply for a new driver's licence. My guess, and I am always happy to be proved wrong in such things, is that the ID card, but this time using older documents like the UK passport to have the maiden name recorded. Then, go and get a new driver's licence, which will carry the maiden name and match the ID card. My guess, is that there is not a record that will show that she has an ID card already and a match of her photo (and that can always differ from the person presented due to the grace of time).

I wont go on here about the social silliness of women changing their names when they marry, and also arguing that they are not 'property'. I like places like Scandinavia where a woman rarely changes name due to marriage. Or places like Iceland, where names are patronymic (or sometimes matronymic) and they reflect the immediate father's (or mother's) given name and not the historic family lineage. So, a boy may be Jan Petersson (his father was Peter), and a girl carries the father's name and the fact that she is a daughter, so Ingrid (Peter's daughter) is named Ingrid Petersdottir. When Jan marries, his children will be Jansson or Jansdottir; when Ingrid marries her name does not change but her children will probably carry their father's given name (though it could be her given name). The Icelanders, living on an island of only 160,000 people, seem to be able to survive this. First names that have not been previously used in Iceland must be approved by the Icelandic Naming Committee before being used. In Iceland, directories of people's names, such as the telephone directory, are alphabetised by first name, not by surname. To reduce ambiguity, the telephone books go further by also listing professions. Icelanders tend to refer to each other by first names, even formally. To many non-Icelanders this may be a real challenge, and of course, Icelanders face a range of problems when they travel abroad. But, it is forever clear who you are and what you are called.

Those of us who have tried to move from certain social traditions with family names and have wives who sought to compromise by having double-barrelled names know the fun and games of a mother having a certain surname and child carrying a different name: eyes roll, and questions get asked such as "Are you married to the father of the child, madam?" Some of us got cute by including the mother's maiden name as the child's last given name so that their name sounds the same as the mother's double-barrelled name. For example, I may be called Brian Smith. My wife, Sandra Fuller when I met her, could be called, Sandra Fuller-Smith after marriage. Our son could be named Colin Fuller Smith (or C.F. Smith).

In the Caribbean, the obsession with family names makes so little sense for those of us with African origins given that we had these given by slave owners and overseers, and they have little bearing to any true family lineage. All of those Innises who band together and think they are different from Worrells and Holders, without having little idea if indeed their ancestors might all have sprung from the loins of a common mother some 400 and more years ago. We so love taking what the Europeans told us to take and running with it as if it is our own, and doing little that really makes sense for who and where we really are.

But, we know that bureaucrats love rules and we often fall foul of rules not meeting the simple needs of people.

Have a blessed and wonderful day.

I Spy Strangers

You know that you have an audience when one of the readers complains that you have not written about their latest doings. Well, blow me down if this morning I did not get a nice rollicking from an unexpected quarter, when my older daughter asked "Why have you not featured my pending visit to Barbados on your blog?"

Well, consider it done, dear, as you now wing your way from the ice pack known as Canada, through the new promised land of Washington DC, and on again via the Big Apple. You're coming for 'study leave'? I am not sure what you will study in the few days here.

When you arrive you will get a swell welcome: there are high winds and red flags have been posted on many beaches to tell us that it is not safe for swimming or bathing. Surfers
are coming out of the woodwork like skiers in Washington when there is an inch of snow. "Hang ten, dude!" When I talk about "flipping Barbados" I will mean for the next few days the topsy-turvy life of riding the waves not a new set of angst about life here.

The plans for the visit are my usual seat of the pants affair. You can have Jamaican patties for lunch--chicken, as the beef variety have to be registered or left at customs. Don't ask me why US raw beef can be imported and Jamaican cooked beef cannot. We will plan to have pudding and souse
and a nice lime later today. That should set you straight for the night. On Sunday we will try for jazz brunch at Naniki,which will make you feel that you are in the land of your grandfather in the Jamaican hills. Monday we will have lunch at Apsara--Thai or Indian, as suits your palette. As your other parental unit is off in the land of conch salad and sky juice, you will have to imagine her and that.

After that you will be ready to fly off again, like the other snow birds and get back to the hard grind of your degree.

Your little sister has decided that she cannot wait for your arrival so has gone off to play with a friend and will find you later this afternoon. She sends her kisses and wishes you a safe flight.

See you soon, Chick.
******
Editor's Note: The picture of souse is credited to Tarik Browne (see link back to the source page(http://www.flickr.com/photos/tarikb/36289445/).

Allegations, Allegations. Show Me The Allegators.

The past few weeks have been ones full of allegations, mainly about some sort of financial scandal, even if laced up pretending to be polititricks. Just from memory, we have had ex-Governor of Illinois, Rod Blagojevich, alleged to have tried to sell the vacant Senate seat of now-President Obama. The man, who prefers to be called "The Rod" not "A-Rod" is innocent until proven guilty.

Racing ahead, we have the current Senator of Illinois, Roland "The True" Burris alleged to have had conversations with at least the brother of then-Governor Blagojevich regarding the seat and being asked, and trying 'unsuccessfully' to raise funds for Governor Blagojevich. Now, Senator Burris testified under oath and everyone believed him, and he does not want his words turned into sound bites so is now refusing to speak to the press. It's alleged that "The True" was so besotted by the idea of becoming a Senator that he lost all consciousness of what was right and wrong and what he was doing while planning to storm Capitol Hill: "I will not be denied", he is alleged to have said. Allegations, only mind you.

We heard of a certain Bernard Madoff allegedly running a massive Ponzi scheme and fleecing investors of some US$50 billion. The latest news alleges that no trace of investments could be found for the last 13 years relating to how Bernie made off with the money. It is alleged that the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) regulate many aspects of investment in the USA. Only an allegation, mind you; it's not necessarily true.

The same SEC are now riding like the Lone Ranger hunting for more badmen and accelerated their investigations into the alleged 'massive fraud' of some US$ 8 billion perpetrated by a certain Sir Allen Stanford, know to us in the Caribbean, especially Antigua, as "Al Our Pal". No criminal charges have been made against Sir Allen, once he was served papers in Fredricksburg (population about 20,000), alleged to be the Zurich of Virginia. Alleged, I stress. With Sir Allen's alleged billions and access to a fleet of private jets, one has to wonder why he holed up in the shadow of the Blue Ridge Mountains rather than hot tailing it to the island he owns or some other hard to find place.

With all of these allegations flying around some of the alleged wrong doers or unfortune ex-'masters of the universe' have found that even after allegedly pocketing billions of dollars after steering their companies to billion dollar losses, have found themselves lost for word. Some very funny statements have been overheard or allegedly overheard in recent weeks. Hence, one powerful man was heard to say, "Many claims have been made, and I know who are the allegators..." I am not sure if he was the same person who said "I have had a lot of sleepless nights in the past 24 hours..." But, it is alleged to be the same person.

The Caribbean islands have had more than their share of headlines in international news during this wave of allegations. It is alleged that a major financial institution, CL Financial Group, is in serious trouble. That allegation seems to have legs with the assets being taken over by the Government of Trinidad and Tobago, and exceptional support being offered by the Central Bank of Barbados. It is alleged that the problems besetting the group's Trinidad operations will not affect those in other parts of the region. Allegations, mind you.

We have heard that American sweet boy singer and dancer, Chris Brown, reacted badly to being told "Shut up and drive" and mistook the face of his 'friend', Rihanna (aka Robyn Fenty, born and raised in Barbados) for a punchbag and also bit his way out of that little bind. The pictures released (see TMZ site), if they are to be believed, leave no doubt about who is the alleged victim. Chris' face when last seen was still pretty and sweet; he is alleged to have booked a holiday in the island to make a 'get to know y'all and kiss and make up' tour. Alleged, I say.

And so it has been. The world is a zoo, sometimes, and now the allegators are running the show.

I Gine Help Wunna

I had to giggle today, when for not the first time someone heard me on the radio then commented that they could not understand easily how I spoke, saying that I "had an accent or something in my mouth". I have to admit that each time it sounds like, "Hoo dis ejyat, hoo cyan speek lik we?"

Now, given that the way I speak is more common than the way that most locals speak, the idea that I have an accent is amusing. However, I know that the reaction comes in part because of a lack of exposure to different modes of speech, and certainly not many different languages. When you live among a population of less than 300,000 you are unlikely to meet many very different accents, even if you have significant amounts of tourists visiting. It may be even harder to figure out what you are hearing if it does not sound like one of the nearby islands or countries with whose intonations you are familiar (say Trinidad, Guyana, St. Lucia or even Jamaica). It would sometimes be better if I spoke French because that way people would just accept that I speak a different language--if they realised that I was not speaking another variant of English--and if I said in English that I had spoken French they would probably shrug and think I was visiting from Guadeloupe or Martinique.

I have not mastered Bajan by any stretch of the imagination, and though I love saying things like "cheez on bred", I am picking up phrases as I go. I do a pretty bad imitation of a Bajan accent, and when I do it with my little daughter, she corrects me terribly.

Bajan is quite distinct from the dialects of other English-speaking Caribbean islands and countries. Many of the other Caribbean dialects are based on Irish- or Scottish-based English pronunciation mixed with West African words and phrases, and reflect the forced learning of a new tongue. Bajan, however, has the lilt of the dialects of the English West Country (Cornwall, Devon). Bajan has some similar traits with other Caribbean dialects, such as the dropping of the final t or d, so that words like 'what' end up sound like 'wha', but it nevertheless sounds different. It has a different cadence or melody, and to my ear always sounds like words are clipped short. That said, one of its endearing characters to me is the rounding and extending of certain words that would otherwise be short, so that 'pie' (apple or macaroni; pronounced as "peyi" by many English speakers) ends up being pronounced as "po-i-yee".

Anyway, as I am the newby, it's important that I understand the local ways of speaking and the phrases. I already wrote earlier this week about my close encounter of the vendor kind in Spry Street (see The Joys Of Urban Life And Art For Art's Sake). I wont offend by mimicking them too much in public, though.

Why We Need To Know About Politicians' Assets

A very good reason to argue for politicians to disclose their assets is to remove as much as possible the taint of possible conflicts of interest. I stress possible. More generally, one should have complete confidence that a politician's decisions are as neutral as possible. I hope that we are not so naive as to believe that politicians are not capable of being influenced. They are humans, not gods, and they have personal feelings that are both good and bad. They have friends and enemies. But, we want to feel a sense of assurance that these things come to bear as little as possible. Now, we know that politicians can be very partisan and it's bad enough to see a politician working to favour his/her party supporters in the constituency, while doing things to discriminate against those who favour or voted for the opposition.

The recent financial troubles befalling CL Financial Group's Trinidad operations and now the levelling of fraud charges amount to US$ 8 billion by the US Securities and Exchange Commission against Allan Stanford and his Antigua-registered Stanford Financial Group point to one aspect of the possible conflicts in our own back yard. To what extent are politicians personally tied to the ailing institution or those who run them? To the extent that such ties exist, how has it affected or will it affect political and policy decisions? The Antiguan government was very cozy with Mr. Stanford, and with elections now set for next month, that may have a very bad bearing on the outcome for the ruling party. Barbados' former central bank governor,is on the Board. With Mr. Stanford going AWOL (reportedly in St. Croix, US Virgin Island), the trail to find him and his assets may lead to some unwelcome doors. The parallels with the Madoff scam are immediate: steady returns (though by offering a 'certificate of deposit' such steadiness is less odd); using an obscure accounting firm (three men and no dog), called CAS Hewlett--originally run from Antigua--to check his books; claiming substantial analytical and research backing for investments, etc. Stanford's bank, fittingly some would say, lost money in the Madoff scam.

The public can ask legitimately the question, "If my politician is/has been the beneficiary of payments from company X (or its head), can I expect that politician to deal impartially with issues to do with company X (or its head)?" Or, very simply, "If my politician has substantial investments with company X, how do I determine that his/her actions are not motivated by self-interest?" In places like the US and UK, politicians are obliged to distance themselves from their investments or controlling interests, or at least be seen to do. This could come in the form of 'blind trusts', for example, which handle investments while the politicians' hands are supposedly freed of such control.

Former US Vice President, Dick Cheney, is an interesting study. He was Chairman of the Board and Chief Executive Officer (CEO) of Halliburton, a Fortune 500 company and market leader in the energy sector. Mr. Cheney resigned as CEO of Halliburton on July 2000, when he became vice president; he argued that this step removed any conflict of interest. Mr. Cheney's net worth, estimated to be between US$30 million and US$100 million, is largely derived from his post at Halliburton, as well as the Cheneys gross income of nearly US$9 million. However, Mr. Cheney had headed President Bush II's vice-presidential search committee in 2000, while still head of Halliburton. President Bush then surprised some by asking Mr. Cheney himself to join the Republican ticket. Halliburton's contracts with the US government during the Iraq war always raise questions about the links with Mr. Cheney, remembering that he had also been Secretary of Defence under President Bush I (in the 1990s). Awkward to say the least. Time (and the disclosure of currently classified information) will tell to what extent Mr. Cheney and his connections had a bearing on important decisions of the last Bush administration.

If I understand the workings of many administrative and legal processes, decision makers can recuse themselves when their discussion or decision has a bearing on a related company (or person). This is good, but is not easy to monitor if one does not know of asset ownership or relationships. Facts may come out later that could embarrass the decision maker. In the Stanford case, the list of political contributions has already led Congressman Charlie Rangel to offer to pay over US$ 10,000 to a charity, representing a contribution he received from Stanford. That gesture alone does not do all the washing needed to make Mr. Rangel clean, because there is still the question of what did Mr. Rangel do for Mr. Stanford, if anything, as a 'sign of appreciation' for the generous contribution?

As the Madoff and Stanford cases unfold many will try to be wise after the event and a host of actions will now seem to be clear signs of fraud or other wrong doing, but at the time they were either seen and ignored or not seen (see Bloomberg report on some of the 'creative' marketing of Stanford).

Americans, who were the main target as customers, are now alerted to the problems of investments with Stanford. For them, a good system exists for getting information disclosed and investigative procedures are very well developed. Very little will not be uncovered. In the Caribbean we are not so blessed. We have lots of sunshine but we rarely get good light to shine on controversial issues, especially if 'big people' are involved. Our deference is legend and our unwillingness to make people answer to obvious charges of wrong doing or irresponsibility is also legend: we will wait to see what comes from another Antiguan debacle in the form of the botch up over the cricket test match that had to be abandoned. A Japanese politician resigns for being accused of drunkenness at a recent press conference. Imagine a Caribbean politician doing the same. We do not see 'wrongness' the same as others.

As we in the region look at images of people in Antigua lining up to withdraw deposits from Bank of Antigua we may say "Oh, Lord, thank you for keeping my money safe." The indications are that our region's BoA (domestic bank) is not directly linked to Standford International Bank Ltd. (offshore), which is the focus of the US authorities' charges. The East Caribbean Central Bank's Governor was quick to state that BoA is 'sound' and warned depositors to not precipitate problems by hastily withdrawing their funds (see Barbados Advocate report). Nevertheless, fear reigned and long lines formed to do just that, according to reports I have seen and heard. People reportedly flew to Antigua to hastily try to get their hands on their money. No Internet banking? An acquaintance of mine in Antigua, who is in property development, told me that he managed to get out all of his money; he was a lucky one as an asset freeze is supposed to be in place. In his words, "Waited from sunrise - 7 hours at Scamford bank to get money. I was one of the few that got through. This has been a long time coming, for those that watch international news it comes as no surprise, interesting that my actions were alerted from UK, and my exact dress was described in real time from those in UK. Scary! But thankful. Best n Bless."

It is interesting that the Venezuelan government was quick to take over the Venezuelan arm of Standford's bank as line formed of hopeful depositors wanting their money. Other Latin American governments have done the same and more may follow, given about half of the investors in Stanford were from that region, and Venezuelans alone invested some US$3 billion (see Wall Street Journal report). The drug money laundering charges now surfacing may be one factor behind this.

Who knows what really goes on in 'smoke-filled rooms' or gets discussed at the golf or tennis club, or is resolved in the bathrooms between people who are closely connected. When a friend who is also in a position of power calls a politician late at night, or any time, it is rarely just to check on what was eaten for dinner or what shirt is being worn. It's about something felt to be substantial. Where you have extensive record-keeping of officials' actions, as in say the US political system, there is a record of almost everything, so it's a wonder how a politician can hope to keep anything untoward hidden. We, again, do not have all of that paraphernalia. So, we need a lot more of the 'honour system'. Part of that is a willingness to say openly and honestly what is owned and how was it obtained; what is earned and for doing what, etc. Tom Daschle, who recently had to withdraw from nomination as President Obama's Secreatary of Health over unpaid taxes raised questions about himself too when people heard about the money he earned from consulting and speeches after losing his Senate seat. Former President Clinton had to disclose a lot of information about the funding of his foundations and his income sources in order for his wife, then Senator Hillary Clinton, to pass muster as nominee for Secretary of State. Was there a possible risk of the links with Bill being seen as intruding on American foreign policy?

Caribbean people like to keep their business private. We tend to bridle at what we see as 'meddling with our things'. Just look at the disgusted reactions when we are searched at Immigration and our distaste for people rummaging through our belongings. Cricket World Cup was as much a failure because of a lack of understanding of our intolerance for being searched, especially when we are 'convinced' that we are not hiding anything. That view tends to extend to a tolerance of our leaders keeping their business private, even if much of it is publicly known: "Yes, that's the big man's house. He built it for his sweetheart. Sure, his wife knows about how he's always fooling around with that other woman; look how the children have his nose. But you know how it is, man."

No politician should have anything to hide from the populace. If such a thing exists, then it must be a threat to the politician's good judgement. If he/she messes with underage boys/girls in public bathrooms and that is illegal then he/she better look out. If he/she consorts with prostitutes or criminals then he/she better be prepared to explain why there is unlikely to be any undue influence exerted by these nefarious relations. If moneys earned are for anything other than legitimate billable hours then let's hear why they are alright. No one should be immune from such questioning if they are public servants, and no amount of high dudgeon and running out of radio studios instead of answering the question will cut it. Sure, the declarations can be false, and we should do whatever we can to make that possibility less. Poor old Senator Roland Burris now has to reconcile what he said under oath with what he is now saying openly. The law will work its way, but the politician should avoid that having to be the only way that the public gets to see what is behind the person. Usually, if it gets to the legal stage then things are already sour. So, keep things sweet.

Jazzing It Up In Barbados

A Bajan expatriate living in London, England, John Stevenson, was made aware of this ‘informative’ blog by one of his Bajan mates and former classmates at UWI Cave Hill. John is a music journalist among other things. He was in Barbados last month for the jazz festival and thought that readers might want to have access to links to his articles on the festival.

The first piece, in the Daily Express, entitled 'Blunt Rocks Barbados!' (see http://www.express.co.uk/posts/view/83356/REVIEW-Blunt-rocks-Barbados-)is a brief general overview of the festival showing the Bajan audience reaction to British 'pop sensation', James Blunt.

The second article is part of his blog contribution to the 'excellent' Caribbean jazz blog, "The Woodshed" (see http://woodshedec.wordpress.com/2009/01/29/barbados-jazz-festival-2009-%e2%80%93-jazz-and). It argues, by way of a more detailed review, that festival organisers exposed the audience to the best of Bajan and West Indian musical talent this year.

I asked John to let us have an idea of his experiences as a Bajan living in Britain. He divides his time between freelance writing mainly about music for the Daily Express, eJazzNews.com, and Middle East magazine and occasionally broadcasting for the BBC World Service among others. He has been living in England since 2000 after stints as a radio show host, music journalist, and public relations associate in Barbados.

He also has a review piece coming out shortly on the memoir of Cuban American, Carlos Moore. He and his book 'Pichon' are now doing the rounds in the US press. The book argues that Cuban society is and has been institutionally racist toward its African-derived majority, and that for true transformation to take place there, the Castro administration must acknowledge this fact and institute genuine structures that establish racial democracy.

John is also doing a BBC Caribbean interview with Moore next week. In the 50th anniversary year of the Cuban revolution such a book is not only timely but quite sobering indeed.

Court In Disaster

Things I discovered today and questions that I raised to myself.

While a Jamaican man acting as a mule can injest more than 80 packets of a controlled substance (aka ganja) in an effort to avoid detection nature will disclose the evidence within a day. His arguments may run something like, "A man did hask me fi brin' in de drugs and some wun wudda help me wen me reach a Barbados." This can be translated as "I am such a bone head that I cannot realise that if I travel with Air Jamaica I am immediately under suspicion as a possible drug trafficker. Imagine how stupid I must be to actually have drugs on my person for the purpose of trafficking."

In what I can only describe as 'typical' in the locality, where 'that's how it is' is how it is, there is no notice of the dress code sent with a summons to appear in court. Imagine how hard that would be to do, and how it could possibly avoid telling people as they are being registered for their star appearances the elements of standard island wear that are not accepted in the court room. I mean, what can you do at the entrance to the court, conjour up a new outfit?

A man wearing an earring cannot expect to get a hearing in local courts, nor can he present a good case. I cannot figure out how it is that a woman wearing earrings gets a fair hearing or can make a good case; women's ears have clearly developed differently in Barbados. There is a part of me that asks about nose rings (either gender), navel rings (covered, of course; either gender), and tongue rings (either gender). Toe rings (females only) seemed to not derail the course of justice.

Also, in the unfair way that ignorance is no defence in the eyes of the law, the dress code posted outside the court is not the full or only thing, as another slightly different code appears on the notice inside the court--it includes 'no slits'. I dared not ask the female police officer what that meant. But, it did not seem to cover the pseudo-Chinese sarong that one offensive female trafficker was wearing. Oh, Barbados!

I am totally at a loss regarding the definition of a tidy hairstyle given what I have witnessed. For a lawyer or court officer or police officer (either gender), short hair, loose or braided. For a real bandito (only males), dreadlocks or braids, loose or tied. For traffic offenders (either gender), shaved head through bushy hair, no braids. For witnesses or those posting bail the rules appear to have not been applied, and the courts seem at a loss regarding how to treat Rasta women, other than with contempt. Why else would the magistrate ask only her amongst a slew of bail providers if her home was a chattel house, and with that sardonic grin on his face? Of course, a magistrate's contemptible behaviour cannot be contempt of (his) court. But that is not courting favours in the eyes and minds of those who witness it, I humbly submit, your Worship.

Court officials tell attendants to speak up and speak clearly then proceed to mumble all the time themselves, such that those trying to hear are constantly asking for repetition. Add to that the beautiful wooden floor, on which persons walk constantly in heavy shoes, and much of the proceedings are inaudible. If it were being recorded most of what would be heard would be 'thud, thud, your worship, thud, thud, guilty, thud, thud, objection...'

Why are the islands potentially guilty banditos given face time ahead of the equally potentially guilty traffic offenders? Traffic offences are not complex and involve no one standing in leg irons or handcuffs. They can be disposed of fairly quickly and so the economy would benefit if the apparently economically active would be allowed to get back to their work rather than having to sit through a few hours of motions denied, objections, requests for bail, presentation of sureties, etc. With an island that has record road density and traffic ownership the idea of special traffic courts (not for drug offences) would seem apt. Why should traffic offenders have to listen to police prosecutors speak like those who failed auditions for 'Perry Mason', with empty lines such as "the weight of the evidence is so strong..."? What little law I know suggests that the court decides if the evidence is strong, not the police, but if you say it with a serious enough face and jab your finger at someone it may seem true.

Why are cases of a 'certain vintage', let's say 5 years, being brought to courts and police not providing pre-trial disclosures all of that time and telling a magistrate that they do not have the file to proceed today?

One thing that was very clear was that most traffic offenders were guilty and prepared to plead that way. They most they hoped for was some leniency. No, not B$300 for not stopping at a stop sign. Or, the dog ate my driving permit, and with eleven children to feed, your Worship, do charge me B$250. So, in the time it took to figure out that only one of five alleged assailants had no lawyer, about 10 traffic cases could have been dealt with. The courts could have been there for the pleasure of those already enjoying Her Majesty's pleasure.

I also saw that traffic offenders invariably dress quite well, at least for court. Real violent bandits (machete wielders and fist bashers) do look like they have come from a fight, with their low slung pants, hair whose untidiness should have excluded them from appearances, and heads, faces and hands that bear 'signs of a struggle' not with life in general but with at least one other person. Drug trafficking bandits were dressed similarly but appeared to have escaped facial or manual injuries--aside from bruising by handcuffs.

But the law is powerful. When the magistrate said, "Keep away from each other" to two reported adversaries who had been violent with each other I imagine that he felt that would really work. Which makes me wonder why bother with the rest of the proceedings, when you could just make such utterances and let the world turn properly.

The traffic offenders were all glad that they were not due to spend any time at Her Majesty's pleasure in the pokey--and I use that term carefully when referring to places like Dodds, of which one has heard some unpleasant stories of unwanted attention. They were glad to get back to teaching other people's children, or being able to deal with their own children, or getting back to their offices or businesses. The pain of a visit to the cash machine was bearable for most.

I like the US system of assessing a fine for a minor traffic infraction or giving someone the option of appearing in court. The Americans have realised that most sensible and generally law-abiding people do not want to bother with seeing the justice system trying to work and will pay up without question rather than waste tax payers money and their own time. I wonder, just a little wonder, if such a radical notion could take hold here. I wonder....

The Joys Of Urban Life And Art For Art's Sake

To say that I am not a standard Caribbean person is I think an understatement, but I would not wish to be regarded as 'standard' anybody. I said to my little daughter last week, "Being ordinary is really easy. You must learn how to be special." I think that Caribbean people have many wonderful gifts, which they willingly hide or obscure. I am trying to make sure that some of the next generation don't go down that path.

My daughter's school was closed yesterday so I decided to let her have a play date with a class mate, who is a regular visitor to our home. I had plans to take them to the city to see an art exhibition at the Grande Salle (adjacent to Frank Collymore Hall), featuring one of my blogging friends and also artiste.

Well, the day did not just flow like that, of course. I had my usual early start and found myself writing animatedly about CLICO and why sticky fingers must not touch it. I then went to clear my head with some tennis, and naturally during Barbados' dry season there had been heavy rain so I had to do some manual labour and dry off the court. I played for about an hour then headed home, in the rush hour traffic, but thankfully my route is short and I was not much delayed. I got another chance to see road craziness as vehicles negotiated the major cross roads at Pine Road and Collymore Rock, where the lights were flashing red and drivers were just flashing past. One lady driver was so shocked as she tried to squeeze across as the third vehicle in a row when I inserted my car, gave her 'the look' and yelled "One car at a time"; her hair went straight up and her huddled pose at the wheel turned into a real hunchback crouch. Why cannot the police--and yes there was a motorcycle policeman amongst the crossing vehicles--give clear guidance or even supervise these hazards. Four way crossing? First come, first served. Stop. Look. Proceed. Not, "Hi-ho, it's off to work we go" regardless of three other sets of vehicles.

That piece of madness over, I then had to deal with an anxious five year old. "Is Matthew here yet?", "When will his daddy bring him over?", "Can you call Matthew's daddy?", "What does anxious mean?". These questions pursued me. Then a little after 11am 'he' arrived. And on cue, I got a call from Starcom to comment about...CLICO. Well, I dragged myself into work mode again and gave Mr. Ellis a good quarter hour of my views on why concerns are legitimate and how governance can be extended beyond financial companies and onto other private enterprises. The children loved pestering me as I was on the phone and trying to make me giggle so that they might hear me laugh over the radio. That done, I thought that sanity needed to be reoriented and I hastily got ready to meet what passes for the outside world in the City of Bridgetown.

First, I had to deal with a language issue. I speak standard English but live amongst people who often do not. So, there I am in Spry Street, trying to park by the shops adjacent to the central bank. My car is tiny, like the island. I rolled down my window and tried to get the attention of a vendor in one of those glitzy NY caps.

Pundit: "Excuse me. Is this space free?"
Vendor: "Yes, this is Spry Street."
Pundit: "No, I asked is this space free?"
Vendor: "I told you. This is Spry Street."

I rolled up the window, parked and walked back toward the vendor as I headed to the bridge, hoping that being closer to him would solve our communication problems.

Pundit: "I think we are not understanding each other. I asked if this space is free?"
Vendor: "I told you twice, this is Spry Street."

Undaunted, I dived into what passes for Jamaican patois:

Pundit: "Whe' me kyan park me kyar?"
Vendor: "Oh. Right here."

Oh, roll on CSME. We are now one.

The children were doubled up in laughter, especially our little Bajan friend: "Hee-hee. This is Spry Street. Hee-hee." I asked him if he had understood the man. He looked sheepish as he said, "No. I don't understand Bajan." You have time, child, I thought.

So, to the art show. I was greeted by a blast of icy cold air as I entered the building. Forever wanting to responsibilize, I asked the young lady at the entrance to the display, "Who pays the electricity bill?" She understood immediately: "Oh you mean the AC and how it blasting out? Not me." She then proceeded to show me her 'animated thought' display,which had images of her going through a day and all the people she passes have their inner feelings on display--well, they are written inside their bodies--inner thoughts--and you can see the words. It was very interesting, not least because our feelings are often very obvious but people pass each other unconcerned.

We then went to look at a display by my friend, which had some very spooky pictures, and the children were very scared even to stand next to the one that had a pair of eyes looking out from a star-studded costume.

An interesting 'study' was 'Homeland Insecurity', which had a dining room display where the plates and other items had signs of family troubles painted on them. Very deep food for thought.

After all of that social concern, we were, of course, hungry and headed to lunch at Waterfront. I have eaten there before and like the ambiance of seeing the city across the water. It's a favourite with the visiting tourists from Europe. The kids' impatience rose again as we waited for the food, but unusually the owner/manager came across to see if we were alright and went to the kitchen to push along our order. Now, there's good service. Then, we ate and had our fill of social etiquette, as the children addressed their own fears of a uniformed man and we played a game that proved he was a sailor not a policeman. We declined dessert, but not before the children had another chance to learn Bajan as they repeated, "You want apple poyi?"

We were pretty tired by now; it was mid afternoon. I had a couple of stops to make at LIAT and LIME, really to see friends who worked there at Carlyle House, so we did a brisk walk along the board walk. As we entered LIME, I got a call from a friend: "The dog just ate my BlackBerry!" Well, my laughter woke everyone in the store as I heard my friend trying to make herself understood on a device that one could hear falling apart. I told her I would see what I could arrange as I was in the store; nice serendipity.

That was enough for one day, and we had not even got to a play ground or seen a movie. We all walked back toward Spry Street and then headed home. The kids were pooped. Art is tiring. As they got back home, they found the sofa and a blanket and went undercover.

Many extraordinary things come from just trying to get through a day. Artists try to make the extraordinary appear for us in words and images. We are all artists in a sense, I guess, and so are all capable of being quite extraordinary.

Who's Fooling Who?

What is really going on?

Today's Advocate does something extraordinary. It draws a number of red herrings out across the path and plays at what could be mistaken for some partisan propaganda, throwing out a good dose of brickbats against any comment or criticism of a major financial company.

• It warns that 'Barbadians must guard against indulging in rumours and baseless allegations...'
• It talks about 'against background of ongoing hysteria over circumstances involving a prominent Trinidad-based financial institution, which has a subsidiary in Barbados, there has been a noticeable fall off in shares in the local Stock Exchange'.
• It calls on 'everyone to recognise that if mischievous rumours and wild speculation continue, not only would harm be done to the image of the investors' chosen institution, but other companies could suffer as members of this island's small corporate community'.
  

I am not easily scared by events in financial markets and I like to check statements.

Who is being hysterical? What is the evidence for this? I do not see lines at any bank offices. I do not see people trying to put their hands of foreign currency and shed the local currency. I do not see or hear of other signs of financial panic, such as people hoarding goods. I do hear questions about the actions and statements of public officials, and that should not be discouraged, because lack of credibility is a major reason for failed measures.

What are the rumours and baseless speculation? Just last Friday, the Governor of the Central Bank of Trinidad and Tobago, Ewart Williams, was describing CLICO's financial position [CLICO's shortfall of TT$10 billion] as "much worse than we envisaged", essentially echoing the words of regulators in developed countries several months earlier (see Trinidad Guardian report). Essentially, he also flagged the last solid data (audited accounts) for the company are for 2007--well over a year old--and that its surpluses for three years appear to have turned into substantial deficits in 2007 and 2008. So, is sharing the concern of a central bank governor working with rumours and baseless speculation? Moreover, there is evidence that the Trinidad authorities dropped the ball in terms of their oversight of the financial group, and are now hastily trying to fill gaps in legislation to allow for better oversight, so expecting the public to have faith and patience is a big ask.

Since the news broke of financial trouble with the Trinidad arm of CL Financial, the central bank in Barbados has placed a B$10 million deposit with it and made available a line of credit: these actions suggest some possible serious financial problem, so local concern has a base and is not fed solely by rumours.

The matter of inter-linkages in CLICO is important and not well understood or well explained, but it has been said by local public officials that the group had a 'risky business model' involving global deals that moved money out of CLICO.

What has been the fall off in the Stock Exchange? In the same issue, in Business Monday, I look at the 'Stock Market Report' dated February 13, 2009. Of 24 shares quoted, only 12 have had transactions in 2009, and 8 of these since end-January (when the CLICO problems surfaced)! There appeared to be only trading going on in Goddard Enterprises last Friday. (If one looks at the 'odd lot' market, it is similar story, with 18 companies showing transactions in 2009, and fifteen of these since end January, only Goddard trading last Friday.) Tell us what the fall off has been, in market that is essentially moribund.

So, if Bajans are worried it is not due to hysteria or baseless allegations and rumours. If one works just with the 'well-informed' statements of local and regional government and public finance officials, there are causes for concern.

Telling people 'Hands off CLICO' is a statement that really requires some in-depth assessment. It is especially troubling as the CLICO group is a multi-national, private enterprise that is now getting substantial financial support from regional governments and central banks. Therefore, a major private business has now become very public. Warning the general public to 'keep off', so to speak is a very odd position for a newspaper to take. Very odd indeed. To not treat CLICO (whichever part we mean) as a political football, means not kicking things related to it around as if they are tin cans on the street and can be ignored.

Bus Stop!

The front page of today's Nation juxtaposes two stories about the crises in public transport.

The first (see Nation report), which seems to utter a warning to school children about their behaviour on Transport Board buses, is in fact written about the behaviour of children NOT on the buses, but who are attacking rivals riding on the bus. Sort of punishing the victim? My take is not meant to belittle in anyway the seriousness of the children's misbehaviour, but is really another plea for those who write about things for the public to just get it right, not follow the rite of getting it wrong. So, warn people on buses that people standing on the streets may attack them, and this is really a risk amongst the school children.

The indiscipline of school children is rampant in many countries, and its occurrence here seems to be causing consternation. Perhaps it's easy to talk about 'effective supervision', but as I have said often, these children are not living and growing in a vacuum. I rarely see a bus stop with only children, and often with other adults present. Are they blind, deaf and/or afraid? I know the answer to expect, because I often hear it when I pose the question about why certain things are tolerated here: "That's how it is." (Believe me, I got that from a policeman at the weekend.) To which I retort, "No. That's how you allow it to be."

The second is about more carnage on the local roads as two minibuses collide (see Nation report). Thankfully, no deaths occurred but there were substantial injuries suffered (16 people). There is a risk that bus crashes and recklessness of the drivers could become like 'black-on-black' crime, that is, less newsworthy. I did not read one word in the report about the conduct of the drivers and how they buses collided, but I guess we will hear about that soon. Just a few days ago we had another verbal salvo about reckless Transport Board (government-owned) bus drivers (see Nation report, February 12): the report noted 'members of the audience complained about several close calls with the Government-owned buses. Observing the speed limit, driving while using cell phones and drivers being unfamiliar with some routes were some of the issues raised.' This is nothing new to most road users here, who have probably been too close for comfort with a TB missile, and just missed going off the road. Did I say "salvo"? I hope it's not just "saliva". More noise is not needed about the bad driving, action needs to be taken, and I don't mean clearing up the mess afterwards.

All Capitalists Now?

People often look to the creation of dynasties. We see sports starts with offspring that become sports stars, even in different sports. We see the children of politicians becoming politicians. Lawyers beget lawyers and so on. We even have a famous dynasty of economists, with Larry Summers being the latest in his family's line. I have no such aspirations, but I am watching out. My children have sort of followed me with sports: my eldest daughter plays soccer, coaches and referees, and that's the same triple header as me. My youngest daughter may turn into a financier; it's early days but I am looking out.

"Come on, Dad. Let's play 'Monopoly'. It's my favourite game." I don't know who first exposed my child to this vice, but she is hooked.Barely able to count, she is swooping around the board and building property like a small Donald Trump--he too, followed his father's business career. Alright, she did not grasp the principles easily at first and when she got houses she did not realise that it was a likely money spinner, but she learned fast. "Come on, pay up. That's $5. I'm getting rich." Is this how capitalism spreads, I asked myself, as I had to shift focus from the English soccer to see my small fortune dwindle and hers rocket ahead.

I was sharing out the money because I knew she could not really manage the counting, but the child is not fearful. "Let me be the banker, now, Dad. I can do it." Well, as I looked at my meagre $2 stake, I was tempted to let her spread the love on me as she readily put her hand into the bank vaults as I rolled the dice, keen to give me money that matched the spots on the dice. But I could take the money and not let he do the same for herself. I explained, but she looked disappointed. When a philanthropist is thwarted, it is a sad sight. "Ok. I get it," she crowed, and she had. In fact, she became a tight-fisted banker a little too readily, and even as I went past Go, it was hard to get my $2.

I also had to stop her paying herself rent when she landed on her own property. Where are the financial regulators when you need them?

I hope that after her day off school due up tomorrow that she wont want to go into heavy training and ask what is the sub-prime crisis. But, that little face and its grin have started to take on a change that could worry a feeble parent. I hear the mantra, "Gimme the money," and I wonder what is she really learning. Nothing bad, I hope.

An Wonderful Valentine

Most of us know that good stories don't make the news that often. The good thing is that most of us live lives that are not full of drama, gruesome events, and really nasty people. So, we get to drool over the ghouls often enough, in fact every day if you expose yourself to what is called 'media coverage'. I love seeing the innocence of children as one of those reassuring beacons that life is good.

Yesterday was sports day at my daughter's school--well the school that she shares with some several hundred other kids. She had been very sick the previous day, but a visit to a nice, reassuring doctor, and some powerful 'medicine' in the form of the day off from school and a good diet of lying under the blanket on the sofa, gave her back a big amount of strength and some health.

When she got up after her night's sleep (and she has a regular 11 hours), I asked how she felt and if she had had a good night's sleep--I ask every day and know the answers. "Yes and yes," she said. I asked if she wanted to go to sports day and watch. "No," she replied frostily, "I'm taking part." Well, there you go. Make a decision. And participate she did.

Parents often get confused about what they see in their children, forgetting time-of-life aspects. I remember, two years ago (when she was just 3), how Miss Bliss had gingerly moved along the grass track like a shadow of herself, very wary of all the eyes gazing on her, from the centre of a huge grassy field, with nowhere to hide. Now (as a 'big girl' of 5), I saw the confidence that is usually evident get its full showing. Sick or not. First or not. Fastest or slowest. I am somebody. And that smile. It's glued on her face.

She got her hugs from her mother after every race, and a wipe off. I gave her a high five and a smile, took some pictures of her and her friends, and let her go on her way back to the tent with the class to rest and get ready for the next event. She wheezed a bit as the asthma took a little hold after each race. But she showed no distress.

Commitment is something we should want to see in our children and try to should teach from an early age. I wont go on about parents who undermine their child's ability to be committed by doing for the child or always criticising (even for a small blip from excellence). I wont go on either about parents who capitulate often and never get the child to understand what it is to be firm in a decision, where lines are drawn and why they are there. After all, it's Valentine's Day so I will share the love.

Endurance is something that is also developed. 'Sticktoitability' someone once said. It reflects the results of commitment, such as having trained enough to be able to race well several times in a short period.

Both traits help you understand that things may need a lot of time to work out well, and so do children to grow properly.

Another Fine Mess

I am not going to spend a lot of time on the issue, but will raise it as a matter of political judgement. What possesses the leader of a political party to appoint someone who is viewed as the patron of his political party, who is the chairman of a major regional financial entity (CLICO Barbados), as the chairman of government-controlled/national broadcasting company? I asked myself that question at the time of the appointment. I was not convinced by any argument about dearth of talent or abundance of talent in the person of one person. Why ask someone to hold these two positions at the same time? This just seemed to be leading down the road of conflict of interest or just awkward situation sometime soon. If the person really is the BEST for the public sector job then let him/her take a leave of absence from the private sector post. If the private sector post is really THE job, then stick with it, and let someone else perform a worthy public service. Even if the person is Superman or Superwoman and has hi/her cape, last time I looked, Barbados has no phone booths.

Then, a major event occurs; it is by its nature very newsworthy. The Trinidad arm of the chairman's company hits the financial skids and needs government help. The opposition party leader in Barbados wants to make comments about the issue and is 'denied' airtime. Guess what? It does not smell right and only a dodo would not have seen the possibility of this doo-doo (see Nation report February 14, 2009). I have a feeling that despite the PM's entrance into the discussion there will not be any Valentine Day's kissing and making up.

Why would you as head of government and Minister of Information to boot, put your government and yourself up for this awkward situation waiting to happen, even if you were not looking to push a platform of transparency and good governance? Is it part of the arrogance of power? Is it a blind spot for a friend and associate? Clear thinking? Good decisions?

Good dancers do not need to hear the music to choose the right steps. Jumping up for the tango when the band is blaring in your ear is not how the 'first legend' of tango would do it. Funnily enough, I thought of this metaphor at random, then found that that legend was Carlos Estevez, who had the nickname "Petroleo" (that means petroleum in English), because he was as smooth as oil.

Oh, well, now someone is pouring oil on flames? What's a petrol economy got to do with it all, anyway? Who is going to be held over a barrel?

Social Struggles: Problem Causes And Some Solutions

Society does not change with the passing of laws or the imposition of will; people have to move in a direction that they want to and that takes time both to improve or to deteriorate. People in Barbados talk about how their society has 'done to the dogs' or the Bajan equivalent of 'we have sunk down low'. One has enough evidence on a daily basis to agree that people here behave in less than ideal ways, but that is not unique. Clearly, many adults here think that their compatriots behaved better in bygone days. I think often about how and why a social downward slide occurs. Below are a few observations on two issues: juvenile behaviour and crime.

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My little daughter goes to one of those 'better' schools in Barbados named after a saint, but all are not saints and some can easily become sinners. I repeat my mantras of 'it takes a village to raise a child' and 'children are what you build'.

I was at the school last Friday, rummaging through stuff for a stall where people could come and buy the next day. It was adults doing the sorting. A girl, in her early teens, was talking to a class mate, standing by my shoulder, and I heard her snap, "You shut up!" I asked her what she had said (see image above, and click, it moves). "Nothing," she replied quickie-quick. "Excuse me," I said; she shuffled her feet and looked at the girl at whom she had yelled. I put on my Obama mantle. "Look, I said, why are you looking at the person you just insulted? For support? For defence? When you resort to that kind of remark it shows that YOU have lost confidence in yourself and by insulting the other person YOU might have won a verbal battle but have lost a major moral war. She can never respect you again, no matter what she says or what you think." A teacher came alongside midway through the conversation, and nodded as I ended my 'presidential moment'. The girls left, muttering.

I recalled later that I had encountered this girl about a year ago, saying something a bit harsher to another school girl. I wondered where she got her linguistic and moral support. It's probably from her peers, because I hear this phrase a lot amidst the chatter of children here. I rarely see any parent or adult intervene, so some additional support is coming from the indifference of the 'upper levels', if I can call the adults that. I would like to give the teachers the benefit of the doubt and hope that they curb the behaviour whenever they come across it. I am not afraid to.

A few days later, my daughter and I were walking into school. Every child we encoutered we greeted with a "good morning". Most of the children did not respond; some even continued their yawn or their teeth picking ...
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Is Barbados safe? If you read the local papers on any day you see a litany of crimes, minor and major. 'The courts' section of the Nation today has 'bedroom bully pleads guilty, two facing assault charges' 'murder trial delayed', man on bail in wounding case': we have a range of personal assaults, robberies of persons and properties, rapes, drug dealings, reckless driving, frauds, etc. Barbados does not have the daily carnage of murders that one reads about in Jamaica or the dramatic and terrifying crimes such as frequent kidnappings that seem to be the rage in Trinidad.

Someone asked the other day whether I thought Barbados had a crime problem. I replied that I really did not know if there was a 'problem' but I know and hear that there are crimes being committed, and on a wide geographical scale. In my street of two dozen houses there have been burglaries reported during daylight. I see many homes with 'burglar bars' and several big dogs and warning signs about them: that suggests that people are concerned about intruders, By contrast, when I lived in the Washington DC area, I never had a guard dog (I had a pool of man-eating gold fish), and no burglar bars sullied my windows or doorways nor did my exterior doors have multiple dead bolts nor were they made of steel. I often found that after being out at work all day, the house had not been locked. Admitted, my house was in a dead end, as here, so you entered by mistake or for a purpose; its back was adjacent to a busy road and could offer access to intruders--but these were mainly deer straying to eat my plants or drink from my pond. My wife and I sat on our porch or deck, day and night, and we never had our (non-existent) shotgun on our laps.

I felt safe in both places. Then again, I always feel safe in Jamaica, even in those really dicey parts of Kingston about which my relatives warn me. I take an attitude of 'ever vigilant' based on having lived in a lot of high crime areas, though never having been the victim of a personal attack. I am very wary of people coming to my house, wherever I am, and no one purporting to be from 'the water company' or such gets past my gate if I have not called for them. Badges do not impress me; any fool can make a fake ID. I do not take delivery of packages about which I know nothing; if needed, I check with my wife if she has ordered something. If I do not get a good answer it does not enter my home. I do not suffer from 'stranger danger' but I try to not let certain risks develop.

When I am in a car going home I always check the rear view mirrors (even as a passenger) to ensure that I am/we are not being followed. I always did this in London, and then in Washington. But for about 15 years I worked for an institution that was often a target for hate and more recently I have been in a 'sensitive position' where I or my family could be targeted and some of the training and warnings that I received I had applied before but I had them reinforced. I always get into my car quickly and have it ready to start--a little like putting on my face mask first in an airplane emergency--and encourage passengers to get in quickly, because my car can be a defensive weapon as well as a place of (temporary) security.

When I go to get money from an ATM I always make a visual check of the vehicles parked nearby and note those parked with passengers still inside; I keep my self sideways on so that I can see out of the enclosed area. Unfortunately, in Barbados, most of the ATM booths have locks that do not work and do not need the card to be opened. When you point this out to the bank staff you get that customary 'not my problem' shrug of the shoulders. If I get robbed in one of those ATM booths I will gladly try to sue the a*** off the bank for at least contributory negligence.

If I go to play tennis around dawn, I always check for casual passers by and usually wait for at least one person to arrive whom I know before I go off and leave my things unattended. And so on.

I do not see this as paranoiac, but just sensible precautions.

Barbados does not have much crime involving firearms, but some are being reported. Knives and machetes (Collins knife) are more common, as are sticks and fists (oh, the good old days). I have heard several stories from different visitors of being held up on the road, often where there is a hill to slow down the vehicle or where there is some natural obstruction.
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Stuff is happening. Some is reported, some is not. If we don't like it, then we better get our butts in gear and deal with it.

Our island lifestyle is easy going but we should not become easy targets for degenerative social behaviour.

Barbados: What Rat Race?

As is often the way, a remark by a friend set me thinking. She said that she had been grateful to get away from the rat race in Barbados over the past few weeks. "What rat race?" I asked. The bucolic place I know has no rat race. What empirical evidence I have of rat racing is mainly from the constant 'busy-ness' of those expatriates who are here. I take my cue from the general atmosphere of 'work, but not too much' that is usually evidenced by the emptiness of streets and darkness of offices from around 5.30 pm (just ahead of sundown--I just came from an early evening walk and got more proof). Dark should catch you in your own house, or having some fun. When I went to collect my daughter from her after-school activities this afternoon, I noticed that the beach was full with dark people. I surmised these to be locals not by their colour but by their 'uniform', that included the ritual plastic hats. I also saw a good crop of youngsters walking home from the beach, with their bodies still wet. That's how rats race here.

Barbados is proudly touted as one of the world's premier tourist destinations. It cannot match places like France, that gets 75 million visitors a year, or Germany and the USA that have about US$75-80 billion in tourist spending [out of a world total of around US$ 750 billion, of which Europe accounts for about half] (see World Tourism Organization statistics). Barbados' nearly 600,000 visitor arrivals by air is low in absolute terms compared even to most non-US islands in the Caribbean region (see Caribbean Tourism Organization data); Bim gets about an equal number of cruise visitors but as these people do not stay and given the paucity of shopping or other attractions for a short day trip to the island I wonder about including them. The Dominican Republic (4 million), Cuba (2.2 million), Jamaica (1.7 million), The Bahamas (1.2 million) are each a good way ahead (and I am not including Cancun and Puerto Rico, with 1.5-2 million each). But for enough people, mainly Britons and Canadians, Barbados is where to go to get away from their miserable winter weather and their rattiness. In total, visitors spent (2006) about US$760 million in Barbados and restaurants and hotels contribute about 12 1/2 percent of GDP (see Caribbean Tourism Organization data for 2006).

But, for us who live here, is Barbados somewhere where we can get away from ourselves and each other? A lot of locals talk about going to St. Lucia (often for jazz events), or to Trinidad and Puerto Rico (shopping), or the USA (shopping), or St. Vincent/Bequia (relaxation). I sometimes hear people here talk about a day spent at Miami Beach--Barbados--or Brighton Beach--Barbados. People, take other day trips to enjoy the tourism sights that are here, such as Harrisons Cave, or Earthworks pottery. They enjoy the festivals that bring in regional and other tourists, such as the Jazz Festival or Cropover, and of course, when Test cricket is in the island many will take time off to watch the matches or visit to follow the series. Enjoying the treasure you have is important, but it is a common failing that people take their surroundings for granted, and leave it to outsiders to show their appreciation.

The issue of domestic tourism is an important one, especially when world economic conditions are worsening, which means usually that people are less keen to spend on foreign travel or make so-called 'discretionary spending'. Barbados is in a doubly bad situation because this factor will be pushing down possible tourist arrivals, and the weakness of the pound sterling and the Canadian dollar against the US dollar since the middle of 2008 will also make it harder for those who have those currencies to consider visiting Barbados. For those living here, all we have to suffer (and it is a bit painful) is the cost of local living.

We need to think more about taking vacations in the island. On the bigger economic scene, 'domestic' tourism ought to include intra-regional travel (which means all of us taking more vacations within the region too), even though that is not easy or seamless with the unerring help of our principal regional carriers, LIAT, Air Jamaica (who seem to be abandoning the region for the northern skies) and Caribbean Airways. Caricom visitors make up about 21 percent of visitors to Barbados, and in recent years have been by far the fastest growing group. The figures are elusive but I heard that Caricom visitors to Barbados spend about as much as US and Canadian visitors.

I have written before about the need to make the heritage aspect of tourism much better and that is something that could make for a more interesting visit to this island and others, notwithstanding the emotional pain it may hold for many. People who visit the picturesque island of Goree, in Senegal, never cease to leave without a moving experience of how gruesome life was when they see where slaves were held and from where they were pushed to land in the ships to cross the Atlantic.They can quickly move to other thoughts with the gift shops and bars and restaurants on the island, but they always have imprinted on them an important piece of the world's history.

Funnily enough, a friend made a proposition last week to think about booking a house and spending some summer holiday days in Cattlewash, on the east coast, if there were no plans to travel abroad. Well, for me that would be an oh-so-easy decision, as I love this island's east coast. I regret that the friends we have in Bathsheba are not around on a constant basis, dotting time here with an assignment in Trinidad, as I always love just gazing out across the Atlantic. Imagine it though for a few summer days. Barbecuing and jerking and stewing. Cooking in other ways Jamaican and Indian and Bajan and Trini food. Drinking wine and beer and juice. Telling jokes and stories. Discussing world events. Insulting each other. Forgetting about school activities. Limited dress code. What a good way to spend a few days.

Whatca Thinking About, Dad? That Life Is Like A Cake

After the weekend, my brain is usually less like mush than it was on Friday. In the midst of trading, aka 'doing nothing at all' during the week and 'having no responsibilities' other than ensuring that my five-year old does not turn into a ragamuffin and continues to have what is described as a 'really nice personality', my brain gets very tired as the weight of my head's emptiness takes its toll.

Stay-at-home husbands/fathers are not like their female counterparts apparently, especially if they are weighed down by the stealthy onset of midlife crises. Somehow, a woman moving towards menopause can just brush that off like dandruff on a mink coat, while a man--feeble old toad that he has become--is in need of a phalanx of help and is impossible to understand. We have to live out our fantasies of the 'good old days' by engaging in pastimes such as golf, or tennis, or some incomprehensible sport like underwater billiards, or by hanging out with other loser men in bars or strip clubs, hoping for that hole-in-one (golf club style not night club style), or perfect hit (of the serve-and-volley type, not the bar counter type). We could be self-actualizing inside a book written by some obscure writer from Bhutan about how she was raised by a pack of she-wolves in the mountains, before being spotted by some American weather pilots and brought to live in civilization, aka Manhattan. Or, because eating cures all, we should curl up in bed with some Bimbo.

I was very intrigued, therefore, to hear on Friday one menopausal woman telling another pre-menopausal woman how the latter needed to consider all the options for help to get through this very difficult period of adjustment for women; she had found the pre-menopause very difficult and was not able to accept the new control that her hormones were exerting on her body and her mind. I was pushed to take the sanguine and not intentionally callous approach and say, "Live through it, like with being a teenager; it will pass." The mentor remained unconvinced and went on to talk about the benefits of acupuncture and other forms of alternative medicine (see Third Age website, for more advice). I remember my mother talking to me as a teenager after she had her hysterectomy, and I recalled the known and often observed physiological symptoms such as hot flashes, and palpitations;I have observed in many women the psychological effects such as depression, anxiety, irritability, mood swings, memory problems and lack of concentration. My father was trained in psychology and he had a very long discussion with me on this subject about the time of my separation and divorce (about 10 years ago) that gave his insight into this subject.

All I take by way of 'alternative medicine' is tennis, but as I try to enjoy every time I get to play my aged body comes back to tell me that "I can't do it so well anymore." But, I've never been a quitter, so I press on, and try to laugh off all the adversities that are on- or off-court, because my other medicine is humour.

I usually really enjoy putting much of my brain in the deep freeze over the weekend and just keeping out only those cells that are needed. The humour and fun group never get much of a break, I'm afraid. Occasionally, some of the thinking and organization group slip out of the freezer before the door is closed and come jollying around my head without the normal resistance that would be there from the rest of the brain cells; fortunately, they only really get a look in if I have to get myself to a kid's event and then I can also put auto-pilot on. Humour and serious thought mixed together can be a lethal cocktail, though: watch 'Comedy Central' sometime.

I took Miss Bliss to a kid's birthday party yesterday afternoon and was quickly miffed by a group of people who just ignored me and continued folding paper favours when I entered the room and greeted each of them with a "Good afternoon." I decided that this kind of lack of broughtupcy did not need me and I withdrew to the garden. On the way, I spoke to my housekeeper/nanny about how in Jamaica and Africa that sort of behaviour might be seen as shocking, and at the very least rude. But clearly some people have no upbringing that involves a serious consideration of the need for or value of greetings. She agreed with me and we said something rude in French (involving the phrase 'peau de vache').

As I took up my garden position, I was thinking about a very serious set of issues thrust into my head by a friend in London, pondering the effects of the current economic downturn on the gender balance in our society. She had flagged a report that women are poised to surpass men on the USA’s payrolls, taking the majority for the first time in American history (see NY Times report). Several persons had discussed this transatlantically for several hours early on my Sunday morning, fuelled by my quip that with men in charge of the kitchen women would have to deal with the removal of weight issues as a topic of conversation. I was in full thought on this when I was asked by the host to join a group of people sitting at an adjacent table in the garden; they included some of those that I had tried to greet. I demurred at first, saying that I was absorbed in thought on economic policies and gender redistribution. Of course, this got the 'Oh, well, never mind' reaction I expected. But, as I am really more gregarious than garrulous, I moved (from the shady spot I had boned) to sit with them (in the full blaze of the sun)--a sacrifice not noticed, and I do not want to think that it was the relative melanin balance that had anything to do with that.

The group I joined was a mix of Canadians, English and Americans, and we talked, as usual, about nothing in particular and a few topics we thought might be of common interest--children, experience of life in Barbados, languages, etc. The composition of the group changed as more people arrived at the party and, taking this as the place to be, extended the boundary by adding chairs. The discussion boundary changed too. Eventually--and I'm not really sure how and why--the group changed totally and I was the only constant left. The group was now a mixture of mainly Jamaicans (of various hues and origins) and Bajans (of two hues). I introduced a little bit the matter of greetings and got a general nod, but someone added notions that people are more introverted in some places and it may even be modern North American social conditioning to 'be safe' because a seemingly friendly approach may be seen as sinister. The 'stranger-danger' notions are not just for children, it seems. But it is mightily strange to think that displays of friendliness are now seen as threats. So, how are real threats seen?

One of the Jamaicans in the re-formed group was an academic specializing in family law, and as he tried to explain some aspects of marriage and relations and how the law ('take this woman to be your wife') does not matter as much as possession ('a fi mi ooman dis'), my inner grin got bigger as I recalled my earlier thoughts on gender and the depression (or recession, if you are an optimist). As usual, the group of 'usual suspects' were having a good banter, though some, mindful of my writing activities were a bit wary as the subjects moved around to things to do with Valentine's Day. (Actually, I am under 'heavy manners' and have been barred by some who shall remain nameless from writing on certain subjects that I hear.) I suggested to our academic that he take a look at the 'advice' given in the Sunday edition of The Barbados Advocate, in two related articles ('Nine best things women can do in a relationship' and 'Valentine's Day Etiquette (for Gentlemen)', the latter by 'one of the island's finest authorities on etiquette' who regularly writes 'Mind your manners'). He guffawed that I wasted money and actually read the 'trash' published in the local papers. I explained that as I try to find topics for my writing, I need to take an open-minded view about the press and its offerings.

My immediate regret is that in the age of IT and online publishing The Barbados Advocate has the annoying habit of not archiving its stories and I cannot find the articles online. Earlier in the day, as I had engaged in the mental struggle of finding satisfactory arguments in the debate about economic change and gender relations, I had found myself incensed by some of the 'advice' given about how men and women should relate. Maybe I have fallen into the understandable trap of thinking that these pieces are serious rather than satirical.

Amongst the 20 things listed by 'Miss Manners', I will be hard pressed to prioritize my frustration. Sometimes, my ire is raised by women suggesting that only men have to do anything to make relations work and this 'advice' gave more fuel to that ire: gals, sit back and let the fella make it all work out right; and if he does not then what can we say about that breed of no-hopers and buffoons that we have to deal with that call themselves 'men'?

I'm not keen on made-up festivals, and Valentine's Day is one of those. But, I will mull over 'giving your partner the best seat' (subject to mine not facing that voluptuous lady in the miniskirt), and simultaneously during the meal and throughout the night 'keep your eyes focused on your partner' (even if your partner's eyes are always elsewhere).

Fortunately, I was brought up to 'know which side your bread plate is on and where your water glass is placed' and wont embarrass my partner by pointing out that she does not. But what if we tussle over the plate and the glass? "You're right, dear," will kick in?

Fortunately, for Ms. Goddard, I found solace in the relationship advice given for women, such as 'show interest-listen to your partner', 'show appreciation-compliment him and express your pride in him', 'be accepting-even if you don't agree with him, let him know you understand his viewpoint and accept it', 'give him personal space', 'have a sense of humour and a sense of fun', 'communicate with touch ... beyond the sexual', and 'share your joy'. There you go, that sounds right.

Monday has arrived. The heat of the weekend has lessened and the breezes are good this morning. The air is fresh and clear and so is my thinking, at least for the moment. On what, I will not say, but it is not on one subject or on one person, or on one place. Life is like a cake: it is made up of the simplest ingredients but when mixed they can make such deliciously complex sets of experiences to satisfy many and none at one and the same time.

Making The Most Of What You Have: A Look At A Paradox.

We economists are often wrestling with the problems of paradoxes. For example, we want to try to understand why countries with what appear to be the same attributes end up with very different outcomes. Or how countries with ample resources seem to remain mired in poverty as if they lacked everything.

From an economic and sociological point of view, we can look at countries that say have similar natural resources yet use them very differently. But we may not even need to go beyond a country. Take Guinea, for example, which lies on the west coast of Africa, almost due east of Barbados. It is a country but is made up of four natural regions:

• Guinea Forest (south east): densely forested; rich soil capable of supporting many staple agricultural products (rice, ground provision, etc., palms); wide variety of animals (elephants, panthers, hippopotamuses, etc. up until not so long ago); mixed tropical climate with heavy seasonal rains; varied ethnic groups.

• Coastal Guinea (west): fish are plentiful from the sea and rivers; arable flat land (good for growing many tropical fruits), some swampy lands (can support staples like rice); hot tropical climate with heavy seasonal rains; small number of ethnic groups.

• Middle Guinea/Fouta Djallon (centre-west): mountainous, but with lush vegetation; rivers; arable land; cooler climate, moderate rains; one principal ethnic group (Peuhls/Fulani).

• High Guinea (centre-east): flat, dry savannas; little arable land (supports ground provisions, some grains, other ground crops like peanuts); one principal ethnic group (Malinke/Mandingos).

The country has a centuries long history and was once part of the great Ghanaian Empire. Guinea has an Atlantic coast and is bounded by six different countries. It went through the process of Islamisation with the arrival of the Fulani (close to Arabs in origin), and is officially about 85-90 percent Muslim. The Fulani also brought nomadic traditions such as cattle grazing. It was colonized by the French and became the first African country to gain independence in the 1950s. The country was once the major African exporter of certain tropical fruit (pineapples, bananas). It has huge mineral deposits (especially bauxite, iron, diamonds, gold, and more), which have been mined for decades, but little processed in the country (one alumina plant exists). The country is mired in poverty, principally because its first president said to the French that he would rather his country was poor and independent rather than rich and enslaved. When the French left, they destroyed a lot of the infrastructure, but the country has had 50 years to overcome that. That poverty amidst natural richness is a huge paradox, and better economics brains than mine have not resolved it.

But, not looking at the global international position of the country, one can see internal paradoxes.

Cattle exist in the Forest area, but the people never 'exploited' the milk: they left the cows' milk for calves to drink: one consequence was that cows never offered income opportunities unless killed for their meat and its nutritional offering was as meat only. The Middle Guineans (Fulani) used cows' milk to make other products, such as fermented milk and yogurt, so they could travel with milk products and trade them for income, as well as have the income and nutrition from meat.

Fish available from the sea and rivers in the coastal area was eaten fresh but also 'preserved' by smoking. Fishing was largely small scale, by artisans off the coast (large industrial fishing came along later and took fish for export to Europe) on in rivers. Fish is plentiful but the country imports large amounts of fish.

Forest Guinea once produced enough rice to feed the whole country; it is said that Guinea has the potential to feed itself and its neighbours. But, in part as a result of mismanagement after the French left, and then the dislocation of refugees coming from bordering countries in civil war (Liberia, Sierra Leone, Cote d'Ivoire) over many years, land that could be cultivated was greatly reduced and the population in the area greatly increased. Guinea is now dependent on imported rice, and suffers because its foreign exchange earnings had greatly dwindled as mineral prices fell. The high price of rice has become a constant stick of social dynamite.

Up until about two years ago, all of Guinea's economic and political woes had never resulted in civil war, or any major civil disturbances. It was also never really at war with any neighbours, though there were/are border disputes.

Guinea's mineral wealth is dug up and exported in raw form, and most is processed elsewhere. For example, Guinea's bauxite is processed into alumina and aluminium in France, Germany, Spain, Ireland, Canada, and the United States. Guinea gets the lower price for the raw product and industrial countries gain from the higher prices of the goods with added value.

Guinea's rivers are regarded as the 'water house of Africa' and it could produce enough hydroelectrictity to illuminate the whole country, yet most of the country does not have electricity. The capital has an electricity grid but it was often plagued by outages, so the city was famous for its darkness: imagine landing at night in a capital city and only seeing the runway lights of the airport, and a few lights dotted around the whole city.

Guinea has a musical culture that is envied in west Africa, yet hardly anyone outside that region knows of it. Guineans often live with the 'burden' of being multilingual. French is the official language, but most people know the main language of each natural region, so that means most people speak at least four languages. Yet, the country has levels of educational achievement that are frighteningly low, and a literacy rate put at around 30 percent (children aged over 15).

We have the idiom, 'You can't make a silk purse out of a sow's ear', meaning that if something in not very good to start with, you cannot do much to improve it. But, we often find evidence that this is not true. We also know about 'squandering your riches'.

When I look through my window and across my veranda in Barbados and see signs of what this country has done since its independence, I ponder the 'paradox of richness' or the so-called 'resource curse'. The academically inclined can read an interesting paper on the subject, entitled Uniquely cursed? The challenge of growth in resource rich countries.

Flogging: the horse is not dead, but a child could soon be.

My blog post on flogging from a few weeks ago, Flogging is a form of torture. Don't pretend that it is otherwise, was also sent to the local papers and was published by The Barbados Advocate yesterday. Today, it generated some interesting discussion. Interesting, because the portrayals of parents who object to their children being flogged at school are often of irate, 'ignorant' people, who are shown as a bit wild, see for example a cartoon from this week's Jamaica Observer (albeit around a set of different circumstances).

The parents who spoke to me were black and white Bajans. These were well-educated people, and had gone to a range of schools. They had also travelled abroad. They were parents of teenage children. They were products of schools who all had used flogging as part of their code of discipline. The father in one case was a prominent business man, who ran his own company. He and his wife have several teenage boys who attend one of Barbados' famous older schools. He told me of the case where one of his boys had come home after a beating by a teacher (not the head), with bruising on parts of his body that suggested he could have suffered injury to some internal organs. The beating had been administered with a short, thick stick. The reason for the beating was a trivial incident between the boy and another pupil that involved some staining from a soda bottle. The parent photographed the injuries and went to discuss the incident with the school. The teacher and head gave their rationale for the beating and stood by what the law allowed in schools. When presented with the pictures they quickly sought to end the discussion. We went on to discuss if this sort of incident should lead to prosecution of the teachers. The parent told me that when he had threatened to take legal action the school head had said that in previous such cases the courts had defended the schools.

Another parent who was present and with whom I had had a 'vigorous' debate on discipline a few days before joined our conversation. He added that discipline sometime needs to be passive. I found that profound, given his pro-beating line previously. In other ways, restraint is something that a person charged with discipline can also exercise. I told a story again of my father and how he had left me to stew after I fell from a tree in a neighbour's garden, from which I had been forbidden to go, and came home with cut knees and stones in the wounds. My father had made clear that my disobedience had been the cause of my injuries, and that I should tell the stones to come out of my wounds, he left me to ponder the consequences. My parents were medical people, and after a short time (I forget how long) they both came back and bathed my wounds and bandaged my knees, giving me antibiotics to avoid an infection. I cannot remember all of the details now but I remember that I never climbed another tree for many years, and never one anywhere than in a grassy knoll.

To me, and to the parent who stressed passivity, the essence of discipline is true to the word. It is learning how to do the right thing at a given moment, and that sometimes mean as a child, for instance, learning to walk away, or correcting a slight quickly, or not retaliating, etc.

The parent who stressed passivity also reminded us of something that I already knew: aggression is learned behaviour, but defence is an instinct. Our bodies will flee or fight. So, always remember that when you visualise a flogging. The beater has learned (acquired the know how) to beat. The beaten either wants to get away or fight back.

I also added my view about those who flog in schools. Because we want excellence, if there is to flogging, I want it done by the best. Those who pass 'flogging' at teaching training courses with the highest marks in the study, not those who excel in theory but those who aced the practical. If parents have to suffer flogging then it must be with the assurance that the child is getting the best the schools can offer. If there is to be excellence in education and flogging remains part of the code of discipline, Barbadians need to not settle for mediocrity in that area.

What a week that was! But time to stop.

It's been quite a week...

It all started with a little financial contretemps a bit south of here, in Trinidad and Tobago. Now, the name of that set of islands with the people who know how to party and live for Soca, and have all that oil and gas flowing out of their gills, means 'three in one'. Good things happen in threes?

Barbados, never to be outdone by the Trinis, came along and tried to clear up any confusion about if CLICO-this was related to CLICO-that. How so? The Central Bank of Barbados opened a line of credit for CLICO and placed a B$10 million deposit with CLICO Mortgage and Finance Corporation (CMFC). The Governor said that it represented a "show of confidence in the institution and was not a negative development ... intended to show that the bank itself will place its money with CMFC as it had asked the company's clients to do." But within the nano-seconds that it took for that news to be made public, the public started to rumble. "You see. Dem is all in it togedda. CLICO go fall here jus' like in Trinidad." was the generic reaction. Governor (Mrs. Marion) Williams was heard to say: "I cannot understand why it should be queried that the institution is not as strong as we feel it is ... Something that has been intended to be positive is being construed to be other than positive."

My take on it as an old central banker, but a central banker nonetheless, is that discretion is the better part of valour. And remembering the rest of the phrase, "... in the which better part I have saved my life". Central banks normally do not like making headlines, so if what is done makes the headlines then waves will start to rise higher and the intent of an action--no matter how good--will quickly get distorted. I do not know why the central bank felt obliged to publicize this 'normal' operation. By making it public it became 'extraordinary', and in this climate, 'worrisome'.

PM Thompson tried to pour oil on troubled waters (Bajan oil, not imported from Trinidad) and said "the move was essentially to let the public know that should there be any challenges in our financial system that the Government would make lines of credit available to those institutions."

Hold on. My little economics brain tells me that deposits and lines of credit are different things, and it sounds as if B$10 has been deposited, and that CMFC also had a line of credit--size unspecified. That should be clarified.

So, within hours/days we had been told that CLICO in Barbados is 'safe', 'don't panic', and to 'stay calm'.Now, there are 'challenges in our financial system'. Maybe I overreact, and I am an economist not prone to that, so the general public has probably passed me by in their reaction. Sounds like the government and central bank feel that trouble is coming.

When I was asked what should be done, I said, "Nothing. If you do something then it suggests that there is a problem." If there is no problem then nothing need be done. I know, it's good to take precautions. In that case, keep them quiet. DON'T YELL ABOUT IT!

But commercial banks here began to feel some pressure on their deposits nevertheless. And guess what? People went along to their friendly bank branches at FirstCaribbean Bank, who just so happened to be making a 'routine' change of account pricing (so that people would have to pay for saving accounts and more). But this resulted in customers' accounts being closed. Oh dear. Panic? A little, as people tried to complete transactions and found that they had zero balances and that 'account closed' message staring them in the face. The bank's managing director called it a 'technical glitch' which "closed the accounts in error", and said it was being rectified (see Nation report, February 5). "Wo-yoi! CLICO's mess spredding fas' See! Fuss Caribeen gone don'!" was the generic public reaction. I hear from an associate at the bank that all is calm, all is white. Breathe in, breathe out.

But, where the three-in-one?

Government is supposed to govern, not run businesses. That view tells you that I am not really in favour of nationalisation and taking over of private companies by elected and often UNELECTED bureaucrats (look at the new board members for CL Financial). But, I know that in Barbados there is more than a whiff of stealthy socialism. So, PM Thompson was heard telling the top brass of Cable and Wireless International to 'rethink' its position to retrench over 115 workers in God's island. The execs. had flown in from the UK. LIME workers had been informed of the closure of the local call centre, but still about 50 employees showed up at C&W's Caribbean subsidiary, LIME's Windsor Lodge offices ... to find the doors locked.Now, we know that 'David' is ready to tackle any 'Mr. Goliath', and got another chance to press that 'Bajan's first' button--so said again that protecting the jobs of Barbadians is uppermost on his government's agenda at this time (and always?).

I'm not sure if the PM has a good 'borrowed' English accent, like mine but...

Was it a mere coincidence that the next day LIME services collapsed. No mobile-mobile connection, no mobile-fixed, no fixed-fixed, no connection with Digicel... "Wo-yoi! Yu see. De CLICO mess spread bad now. Even de phone service nah wuk. Is real Harmaggeddun." Stay calm. Breathe in, breathe out. Where is my Lamas partner?

So you have your three things. I am not superstitious. In fact the only super that I am is supercilious. But, I am going to calm my nerves and take a nice glass of rum and ice and look at the sunset. No blasted financial meltdown is going to spoil my sundown. Wait a minute. I just get a message on my BlackBerry: "Beware! What is going into your mouth may soon turn sour." I read the story that is attached.

CL Financial has to sell all assets. STOP.

Appleton and J Wray & Nephew, is a subsidiary of Lascelles de Mercado. STOP.

Angostura, a subsidiary of CL Financial, acquired the Jamaican conglomerate Lascelles de Mercado last year in a deal valued at around US$700 million. STOP.

STOP THAT RUM BUSINESS NOW (see Jamaica Observer report)!

Permission To Speak, Sir.

Lovers of things English (or British to be less racist--see BBC assessment before you stick in the boot) may remember the 1960s-70s TV sitcom, 'Dad's Army', about the Home Guard during the Second World War. The Home Guard consisted of local volunteers otherwise ineligible for military service, usually owing to age. The platoon was led by 'Captain Mainwaring' (pronounced “Mannering”; a pompous, but essentially brave and unerringly patriotic, local bank manager, who appointed himself leader of the 'platoon), and he had three key 'sidekicks': 'Sergeant Wilson' (diffident, upper-class bank clerk who would quietly question Mainwaring's judgement ("Do you think that's wise?"); ' Lance Corporal Jones' (old campaigner who had joined up as a drummer boy aged 14 and participated, as a boy soldier in the 19th century Boer War, famous for urging "Dont panic!" and deferentially saying "Permission To Speak, Sir"); and 'Private Pike' (a mummy's boy, constantly wearing a thick scarf with his uniform to prevent illness, and often the target of Mainwaring’s derision (“Stupid boy!”), Pike was a junior bank clerk. He called Wilson “Uncle Arthur”, and although never explicitly stated, it was often implied that Wilson and Pike’s mother were having a relationship. It was also occasionally suggested that Wilson was Pike’s father...). The comedy revolved about how this platoon often never managed to really help the war effort with its bungling. The show was set in a fictional seaside town on the south coast of England.

Some interchanges over the weekend left me with the strong impression that at least one Barbadian (I dare not use 'Bajan' in case that leads to another diatribe) thinks that no foreigner has the right to point out anything wrong (sorry, not absolutely perfect) with this blessed little isle, even if it's mere repetition or amplification of what Bajans (oops) themselves are purported to say or think, as reported say in local newspapers or heard on the radio. To be fair to this 'person' (and I hedge the term because the anonymity of commentators means that one is not sure if this is real human thought being expressed or the results of a very elaborate computer algorithm) he/she/it needs very little prompting to vilify anyone for any remark, so my treatment is not unique. Anyway, that experience of feeling lashed by someone who loves to beat behinds is behind me now, and I will move on.

Undeterred, I will continue to point out things that are not as wonderful as they could be (see how I am learning quickly the language of positive thinking?). They only need a little tweaking to improve, so I am optimistic if everyone plays their part. My hope is that those concerned or observing or reading will learn and pass on lessons for how to be better. That is what I try to do in my daily interactions and I am never going to be put off by glazed expressions or shows of indifference or ridiculous remarks. But, in deference to the single dissenting opinion, I will seek 'permission to speak'. I will relate two related tales from the past two days.

First, I visited a police station on the Barbados south coast, with my little daughter. She was very nervous: "Is there a jail inside, Daddy?" she asked. I had to tell her that I was not sure, but we would ask. I had left my visitor's driving permit abroad after a recent trip and wanted to find out how and where I could get a duplicate (it still has a few months of validity) or obtain another permit. I had tried calling the Licensing Authority (LA) during the two previous days--during their stated working hours--but had not had anyone answer the phone on either day. That left me feeling a little frustrated. Breath in...out. Let's call that 'strike one', for those who wish to be critical.

In the station, I found three officers and three 'receptionists'. The police officer whom I met at the front desk (he did not greet me nor raise his eyes to look at me, hence my choice of verb), spun his pen as I asked my simple question about whether I could get a driver's permit. He was no young whipper-snapper, so would have been raised in those days when the country's values were in tact and people knew respect.

I had previously obtained a permit from a police station or a car rental office, so I naturally thought I could still do so. "You need to go to the Licensing Authority. We had a budget." His eyes remained fixed on his spinning pen. I tried to understand what that meant. I knew there had been a Budget; I had listened to it live and read the speech. "You need to go to Holetown police station after 3pm, though," came another answer, from a 'receptionist' sitting behind the officer. "We don't do permits anymore," came yet another reply from another officer. I digested all of that for a few seconds, then heard, "You can get a copy of the permit; they have it on record." Now, to write the text, I have to make the statements/sentences separate, but you have to imagine these remarks coming more or less at the same time, and my head whipping left and right as if I were watching a Nadal-Federer exchange at the net. However, after I filtered the comments, I thought that I had enough information, wished all of them a pleasant day, and left. But, I had a tinge of regret. The 'receiving' officer had raised his eyes to look at me as I was about to leave, and his pen was still spinning. I should have counted how many times the officer spun that pen. It's going to bother me that I did not do that. And I forgot to ask about the jail. But, my daughter--perceptive child--never mentioned it again. Let's call that whole episode 'strike two'.

The next day, I called LA--that's my literary licence at play, and I mean the Licensing Authority not somewhere near Hollywood--to check their hours and if I was right in thinking that I could get a permit from their office nearby. I also checked on the cost and duration of permits. I did not mention that no one had answered when I called the two preceding days: I wanted to leave a nice impression and show that I can move on without grudges. I then took a nice stroll along Pine East-West Boulevard to LA. I knew my mission and it was not impossible. I met two long lines of people in the office that seemed to deal with payments, but the sign suggested that you could get permits there. I joined one of the lines. It moved along quite quickly (note, more positives). 'Little England' may be little but it is not lesser (again, accentuate the positive). I promised myself to be on my best behaviour. When the buzzer rang someone pointed me to booth 11. I took off my cap before I spoke (someone once taught me that was polite).

DJ: Good morning. I bought a 12 month permit last April but left it overseas, recently. Do you have records of current permits, so that I could get a duplicate?
LA officer: No.You can get a permit for 2 months for B$10.
DJ: But I called the Licensing Authority this morning and was told it was 3 months for B$10. That's funny.
LA officer: Funny? Why funny?
DJ: Odd, then. I would think that your answers would be consistent.
LA officer: (SILENCE)

I gave the LA officer my overseas driver's license, and he began to fill out a form. He counted two fingers, then wrote on the form the licence duration as February 4-May 4, 2009. I pointed out that he had given me 3 months. He shrugged his shoulders. I guessed that the forms were numbered so he needed to keep the sequence and explaining the gap or some correction on the carbon copy might take a while.

I asked if I could renew the permit after it expires. He hesitated, and I took my cue: "Don't worry, I will just come back and get a new permit." I am no maths wizard, but without my fingers I could work out that if I (or anyone) will be visiting and staying for 12 months then paying B$10 six times for 2 months each, is cheaper than B$100 for 12 months; better still if you get a friendly LA officer who can let you have 3 month permits for B$10. I would love to help the PM balance his Budget but not with this. Where else in Barbados can you get a service with a 40-60 percent discount on the price?

Clearly, someone will review the records and will point out to the LA officer concerned that he has made an administrative error. But, maybe not. I was told in LA that there are no records kept (despite what the police told me, and they are never wrong, right?) . I walked out, back into the light of the day, and cast an eye down at my new permit and the receipt for it that I had been given: the official receipt shows "...permit (for under 2 months)". I felt a little confused. Let's call that whole episode 'strike three'. (In passing, I have to point out something stunningly brilliant about Britain/'big England' and drivers' licences. When you get one, it's for life, well up to age 70. You see, they know that you do not need to go through this guff more than once.)

One great thing about travel is that you get to see the world. That is patently obvious. What I mean is that you get to see the many things in the world and compare. Somethings are startlingly the same--like bad bureaucracy (Russia, Uganda, Germany, Mexico, Jamaica...appalling is appalling)--but many things are truly very different. On the physical level it can be clear. Winter in Norway (say mid-February), with its coldness, and snow for months, and days when there is more darkness than light, is much different than in tropical Barbados, with its warmth, where the sun shines most of the time. Procedures for getting driving permits too are very different (see procedures for foreigners wanting to drive in Norway). Note a key difference with Barbados:

'It is now required that everyone wishing to get a Norwegian drivers license take the driving test. If you change your license within one year of getting your residence permit you are not required to take the theory test, but you MUST take the driving test.'

No visitor's permit. You have to get the 'full Monty' national licence and prove that you can drive. I don't want to be developed.

So, I gave Barbados three strikes, and normally that would mean you're out. I know that Test cricket is on now so I should not use a baseball metaphor, but the problem with cricket is that you can play badly all day long and still not be out. I want this thing to get to a finish. But as Barbados walks back to the dugout, there is no need for its shoulders to slump. This was not a failure, but a challenge. You will get another chance to bat.

My lesson from my recent experiences is that Barbados is really a simple place and some people like it that way and want to keep it that way. I have been told in several organizations "That's too sophisticated for us" or "They can do that in America/England, but don't try that here". I looked around the office concerned and saw the banks of computers and I heard the beeps of computer games being played on them. When I was at a police station recently, I asked a favour and was told that it would be done in a minute. I waited 10 minutes and asked, "Did I misunderstand the reply?". To that question I got, "We'll do it when we are not busy." The people concerned were doing nothing--in my humble opinion: the three 'receptionists' were in front of phones that had not rung since I walked into the station (but could have erupted into a barrage of panic-stricken ringing any moment), and the three policemen were sitting on stools or looking out of the window 'keeping their eyes peeled'(waiting to see a crime, I guess).

I say it again. Barbados is a service economy and will live or die on the quality of that service in every sector. I have suffered excellent service in other countries and I have had it here on very rare occasions, and it feels good and refreshing. Being made to feel that you count is not trivial. Getting consistency should not be the preserve of 'them up north'. If service is not excellent then, my fellows, mediocrity will rule the day, and Johnny will not be able to play anymore: sit on the bench until you are better at it. Better still, let me give you a beating so that you understand better.

I hold firmly that if you point out to someone here hat they have done less than sterling service or worse something silly (sorry, made an understandable error), you are often greeted with silence or a ridiculous reply. Silence used to signify consent, and in my simpleton's head I would expect to see a correction. The ridiculous reply? I do have a keen sense of humour.

What You Have You Hold.

From the time that president-elect Obama nominated Eric Holder to be the new Attorney General in his administration, Barbados and Barbadians have been keen to associate with Mr. Holder, although he was born in New York City and is an American citizen. Natural enough. His father was born in St. Joseph, Barbados, and went to the USA as a boy. His mother was born in New Jersey, but her parents were born in St. Philip, Barbados.

Jamaica and Jamaicans had had their days when General Colin Powell rose to be President Reagan's National Security Adviser (1987-89) the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff (1989-93), and then Secretary of State under President Bush (2001-2005). Many were disappointed that General Powell did not make a run for president, but he had his wife's reasons. General Powell was born in New York City of Jamaican migrant parents. Ironically, the Holders and the Powells raised their families in The Bronx, so we wait to hear if there was much if any contact between them during those times.

So, the US now has its first 'African-American' in this position, and one with strong and clear Bajan roots.

Mr. Holder seems to have been a pretty bright guy. He went to Columbia College and Law School and then went to work for the Department of Justice. He was previously a judge (appointed by President Reagan to the DC Superior Court in 1988), and then went to become the first African-American U.S. Attorney for the District of Columbia in 1993. He became Deputy Attorney General under Janet Reno in 1997.

In 2001, Mr. Holder went into private practice with Covington & Burling in Washington DC.

In 2007, Mr. Holder was joined the Obama presidential campaign as senior legal advisor. He served on Sen. Obama's vice presidential selection committee.

Controversy has touched 'our Eric', firstly for his part in president Clinton's last-minute pardoning of March Rich, a fugitive and Democratic contributor. There are suggestions that Holder was pressured by Rich's associates. He was also involved in recent decisions to dismiss certain Justice Department staff.

Now, hopes are high in the Caribbean that the Obama Administration may herald good things for the region. I personally don't see much of that happening, because US interests and those of this region are not necessarily very close. However, heaven help 'our Eric' if he supports legislation that impairs this region. Son of a native son? Let's see how you fare.

What I really love about the passage to the Obama regime and the prevalence of black faces in the upper reaches of the Administration is how the language used to describe its action now starts to get tricky. Think, for example, of the editorial gymnastics when a cub reporter offers, 'Holder heralds in dark days ahead for ...' or 'Obama's AG issues black list of ...'

We live in interesting times.

What Is Being Engendered?

Though I did not grow up in Jamaica after my first six years, I've managed over time to spend a good amount of time there on visits. One thing that struck me early on was how, when I went to the movies or a play, the audience really got into the characters. For a play this made a sort of sense as the actors could hear and even respond if they wished. For a film, I really wondered who the audience thought was hearing other than the projectionist. "Gwan Bruce. Lik 'im wid another kick!" or during a scene in The Harder They Come, many yelled "Dont let him pass driver!" as the bus with Jimmy Cliff was heading to a bridge and a truck was coming in the other direction. Or when comedian Oliver Samuels plays a woman: "Cuh ya! A no Oliver dat inna dress? Is wha' dis?" They were not laughing pure and simple, but were posing a question about the current flowing through 'hour Holiva'. Did DC switch to AC?

Audiences also showed something that was quite different from what I had seen before: they often fell over themselves when they saw people dressed as if they were the other gender, and would laugh and holler at this sight, more so when men were in women's clothes--not least, I imagined, because no amount of panty hose or ruffles could get you past Hulk-like thighs, a bulging belly, and even a bit of bristle on the face. I saw this again recently, in Barbados, at my daughter's gym class 'gala', when one of the men gymnasts came out in a leotard, a tutu and his hair in buns, before he went into a stomach-curdling parallel bars routine. Fetching? Nah! Almost everyone hollered, and the little kids pointed and snickered. I don't know if women feel complexed by this reaction, which could be about the absurdity of women's clothes, as much as the absurdity of a man trying to seem comfortble in this form of dress.

I always had a suspicion too when I witnessed these reactions that the audience was not really looking at the actors as actors or performers as performers, but somehow thought that a real change had taken place.

I went to an all boys school in England during my teens and as most plays have roles for women in them some boys had to play those roles to stay true to the text, whether it was 'Romeo and Juliet' or The 'Taming of the Shrew' or 'Cleopatra'. But someone also had to play the Green Knight in 'Sir Gawain'--and very convincing I was with my built up shoulders and false head ready to be chopped off. It so happens that you often have a crop of teenage boys who have 'soft' features and can at least pass for a girl with a bit of make up, and before the voices break, it could be quite convincing.

Generally, despite liberal upbringings, we feel better seeing Romeo trying to woo Juliet even if she is played by a boy, rather than having to think of Romeo and Julian (if we rewrote Shakespeare to deal with the lack of female acting talent); the romantic comedy could still be there but many would not want to go there with schoolboys.

I also remember that one of the traditions at the Bank of England was that the staff Christmas party always included a sketch where several of the senior managers, including Executive Directors, would dress in drag and sing, dance, act out some scene or do a satirical take on some major political events during the year. You have to remember that Margaret Thatcher was Britain's prime minister during most of the time I worked at the Bank and she provided a lot of good material, some of which had never made the news.

I'm not sure how, but I have never seen the movie, 'Tootsie', directed by Sydney Pollack (who also acted in the film) and starring Dustin Hoffman. As I have read, the film is about an unemployed actor with a reputation for being difficult, who disguises himself as a woman to get a role in a soap opera, and becomes a star. This new found role, however, lands him in a few hot spots between a female friend/'lover', a female co-star he falls in love with, that co-star's father who falls in love with him, and a male co-star who yearns for his affection. Hoffman was nominated for the Oscar for best actor--not actress--for this role.

Eddie Murphy, one of America's funniest comedians, is famous for playing multiple roles in his films. I recently had the mixed fortune of seeing for the first time the film 'Norbit', in which Murphy plays a clumsy and not so good looking lad, Norbit Rice, and Rasputia Latimore, a grossly obese, overbearing, bullying girl who 'makes' Norbit her boyfriend. As they both grow up, they become closer and eventually get married. But Norbit really only wants to get away from Rasputia to find his true childhood sweetheart (played by a real woman, Thandie Newton). I nearly burst my rib cage when I watched the scene where Rasputia goes to the water park, breaks the scale, makes the water slide structure rumble, and then manages to empty the water from the slide pool as she 'sails' down the slide and off into a housing complex.

I saw last year John Travolta, playing the role of Edna Turnblad in 'Hairspray', the plump mother of an equally plump teenager who takes the TV world by storm with her singing and dancing and made the not-so-pretty and not-so-pencil thin very acceptable. Travolta had to wear a 15 pound body bag and got a Golden Globe nomination as best supporting actor--not actress.

I'm stunned that people confuse facts and fiction as with the Jamaican movie and theatre goers. I have never seen someone read a book, or seen or heard of someone listening to a radio broadcast who started interacting with the characters. Nor have I ever heard of people listening to a playwright reading extracts from his play and getting confused when he read the parts for the leading female character. There's no flipping gender problem. So, maybe there is something about actually seeing people in costumes that leads to the behaviour that I saw in Jamaica. I'm intrigued why I have never seen this is Britain--and I went to a lot of plays and films. I have seen the opposite, with the crowd revelling in the performance. Admittedly, this was in a pub or several when they have things like talent night, and 'George' the town's burly butcher came out dressed as 'Dolly Parton' singing 'Stand By Your Man', and seductively draped himself around the even burlier landlord, 'Graham'. "Go on, George. Show you love 'im!" some wags yelled as 'George' puckered up and 'Graham' reeled back. 'George's' wife, 'Mathilda' was doubled up with laughter, and heard to mutter, "Go with it, Graham. George is much more woman than me."

I have not been to the cinema or theatre much in other countries, but suspect that the French would be all 'C'est la vie' about it, and not lose a second to pretend to be next to Bruce Lee or wonder if Maurice Chevalier had really turned into Maureen to stop sipping their Pernod.

I did see similar interactive reactions in Africa, with people huddled around a TV watching an action video or film. That was in a rural bar and got a little out of hand as kung-fu kicks started flying around and a few people got hit and tables fell over, and beer got spilled, and a real fight broke out.

Is this a development issue, or is it an ethnic issue? I wish I could figure it out. I mean, when you see people in make up and dressed for their parts in a play or film, or a man jumping over six horses at a time with a sack of gold on his back and a damsel in his arm, you know that it's not real and that they're acting right?

I think I will dust off my copy of 'Emotional Intelligence' bu Daniel Goleman and see what guidance that can give.

Mission Accomplished?

Summary: Regional mega-financial group, CLICO, has run into a cash shortage in Trinidad, needed to be bailed out by the central bank, and the government has now nationalised it. CLICO's assets will go to the government-owned bank, cementing its position at the top of the banking sector. Concern in Barbados is about whether CLICO's Bajan operations will be adversely affected soon or in the near future. The government here sought to calm fears. But the headlines seen this week urging calm may not remove fears? We could see today if that is the case. However, these are early days, but this development will be a big test for the regional and local financial sector .

This week will be very interesting in the area of regional and local financial activities. Last Friday, there was a press conference in Trinidad, where the central bank governor announced that the Trinidad government had been asked to provide financial support to a major local institution, the Colonial Life Insurance Company (CLICO) financial group, and had decided to take control of CLICO, Clico Investment Bank (CIB) and Caribbean Money Market Brokers (CMMB). The basic problem has been reported as follows:

CIB has had ‘liquidity challenges’ (running out of cash) in recent weeks, and these came to a head in the last few days when the bank began to face an unusually high level of withdrawal requests which put a strain on their available liquid resources. CLICO has also been facing liquidity problems, though less than the levels of CIB. The close integration of these two financial institutions within the CL Financial Group meant that only time would control when CLICO also started to come under severe liquidity pressures. Official contact between the group and the regulators in Trinidad were reported to have started in mid-January.

The immediate public feeling is that the increase in CIB withdrawals and the nervousness seen at CLICO related to depositors' concerns about the impact of the sharp decline in methanol and real estate prices on CL Financial's overall financial situation. However, the central bank said that the problems have more to do with the following:

* 'Excessive related-party transactions which carry significant contagion risks' (but note that the high level of concentration is not specifically prohibited by the present legislation). In other words, they churned a lot of money around within their group, sort of like Daddy taking cash from his son Peter and giving to the other brother Paul, and the small pox virus on the bank notes putting the whole family at risk of getting sick.
* An 'aggressive high interest rate' resource mobilization strategy' to finance an 'equally high risk investments strategy', much of which are in illiquid assets (including real estate both in Trinidad and Tobago and abroad). In other words, the borrowed dear money and put into risky projects, many of which could not be quickly turned into cash.
* A 'very high leveraging of the Group's assets', which constrains the potential amount of cash that could be raised from the asset sales. In other words, the borrowed money could be multiplied many times over in paper terms, but the gains could not quickly be turned into the same amount of real cash.


In the regular monitoring of CIB and CLICO since 2004 (when insurance supervision was transferred from the Ministry of Finance), the central bank consistently focused on these weaknesses but were ‘stymied by the inevitable challenge of change and by inadequacies in the legislative framework which do not give the [central bank] the authority to demand these changes’. In other words (and I do not know if this is local politics at play or something else), the official institutions had to tolerate a bad situation and hope that the **** did not hit the fan. So look for a mad scramble now to get laws changed--yes, the horse has bolted.


What financial people call 'contagion risks'--i.e., the spread of the problems--are of course feared, knowing that financial difficulties in an institution as big as the CL Financial Group could have on the entire financial system of Trinidad and Tobago and indeed in the entire Caribbean region. The central bank spelt out that:

* The Group controls over (TT$100/US$16) billion of assets in at least 28 companies located throughout the region and the world.
* The Group's financial interests cover several industry sectors including banking and financial services, energy, real estate and manufacturing and distribution. The four largest financial institutions in the Group manage assets of over TT$38/US$6 billion, over 25 percent of the country's GDP.
* In addition to CLICO, among the Group's holdings is the British American Insurance Company Limited, one of the main insurance companies in the Eastern Caribbean.

The bail-out strategy now involves:

* The transfer of all the third-party assets and liabilities on the books of CIB and CMMB to First Citizens Bank. These liabilities will be matched by resources from the sale of CIB's holdings of certain high quality assets. The central bank will provide short term liquidity as needed to ensure that these liabilities are serviced. following the execution of these transactions, CIB's banking license will be revoked.
* CLICO has a sizable Statutory Fund deficit. CL Financial has agreed to divest additional assets to help fund this deficit. The Trinidad and Togabo government has committed to provide any additional funding that is needed by CLICO.
* Government funding will be provided in exchange for collateral and an equity interest in CLICO. It will also act as a catalyst for implementing a change in the current business model and corporate governance structure of CLICO. The intention will be to return CLICO to its original moorings.

Getting through the financial inside language, a big financial group in Trinidad looks like it ran out of cash and needed to be bailed out. The central bank and government have agreed to do that, and give money as needed; in return the government has essentially nationalised CLICO's operations in Trinidad. They have also boosted the position of the largest bank in the country, which is also government-owned.

The first concern in Barbados went toward whether CLICO's operations in Barbados would be adversely affected and if so, how and when. The initial words from local financial officials were that people should 'stay calm', but as Barbados' PM said:

"Barbadians would be extremely concerned as it would be difficult to conceive that CLICO Barbados and CLICO Trinidad are not inextricably bound. Those with investments in CLICO's financial institutions are therefore justifiably concerned."

His real fears were clear:

"It is not in the interest of depositors or our country for there to be panic. Such panic would reverberate through our financial system and compromise our ability to ride out this situation and the global economic challenges. It is in the interest of all Barbadians for calm thinking and normalcy in our financial sector."

It's really hard to convince skeptics, by definition. The key to convincing people is credibility, not content. People ask immediately, "Does this make sense? What are we not being told? How many times have we heard this? All we have had in the past is lies."

As a former central banker and economist in an international organization, I know that a major problem faced by those responsible for policies is credibility. In the face of skepticism, well-founded or not, how believable you are is often more important than what you really say or do.

There is no knowing how convincing the statements and proposed actions are until they get tested. This Monday morning, for example, will there be long lines at the local banks with people seeking to withdraw their money? Someone said to me yesterday afternoon that they believe this would happen because, when asked on a radio call-in program if there were enough cash reserves to cover deposits, the answer given by an official (correctly) was 'no'. Most people do not understand the differences between commercial banks, investment banks, and insurance companies, for example. CLICO is involved in all of these activities. People have bank deposits and want to feel that they are safe. That 'no' may be wrongly interpreted as meaning that the deposits cannot be covered, and people run to be the first to withdraw. The attempts to explain that no bank in the world usually carries enough cash to cover all deposits, or that investment banks do not usually get their resources from deposits but from lenders, or that insurance companies have different obligations in terms of what liabilities they have to cover and how, will all fall on partially deaf ears and minds that do not understand. Gut instinct may take over, and fleeing is easy.

As reported in the Bajan papers today, chartered accountant and financial analyst, Douglas Skeete, suggested yesterday that a help desk be set up and meetings called with interested parties to give them information:

"You get the rumour-mongering and fear that will take hold of some members of the community and as a result of that we have individuals who may want to visit the company's premises."

CLICO Holdings Barbados Limited's chairman, Leroy Parris, said on Friday:

"I think it is a matter of confidence in the organization, confidence in the economy, confidence in the management structure of the company...If people believe you are doing a good job [or] if they believe you are not doing a good job..."

He will soon know what people believe.

The front page headlines in the Bajan papers in the last few days have included 'Stay Calm', 'Money Secured!' and 'Don't Panic!'. The words were meant to reassure, but there is no guarantee that they will not do the exact opposite. While initial indications are that CLICO's Trinidadian problems are the result of a series of local incidents, people will want to be convinced that this is not part of the wider and more troubling international financial crisis.

While the local population has no immediate experience of what is feared and have not seen in the streets here lines of people demanding their deposits, they do have fresh memories of such lines in the UK (Norhtern Rock) or Iceland (all banks). So, they may say to themselves "If it can happen in a big place like England, it can happen in little England."

We will be watching very carefully.