Election issues in Barbados and Taiwan

Just three very quick updates with a slant on the elections in Barbados.

First, a CHAPO/Boxill poll conducted by two UWI academics (Prof. Ian Boxill and Dion Greenidge) in early January put the BLP ahead of DLP by 41.5% to 36.2%, with a margin of error of +/- 3%. The poll projects that the vote will be between 50-53% for BLP and between 47-50% for DLP, giving BLP a margin of maybe 5 seats. This is not so out of line with the recent CADRES poll (that had a +/- 5% margin of error), not "poles (or polls) apart" as one radio station hails.The two polls indicate that the election will be close. The CHAPO/Boxill poll indicates clearly, as did the CADRES poll, that Owen Arthur has a substantial lead in people's minds as the best leader, with 48% support against David Thompson's 33%. That could be a major factor as over 50% of voters say they will be swayed by consideration of particular MP and choice of Prime Minister. Both polls are also clear that the major (over 50%) voter concern by far is the cost of living, and this is rising. There will be a lot of chewing over the numbers but the voting day is really close and the voting will be very close.

Second, I do not know enough about the various MPs to have a strong view to express here, but one contest will be very close and I feel very heated. That is the race for St. Michael North West, between Clyde Mascoll (BLP) and Christopher Sinckler (DLP). Mr. Mascoll is the government spokesman on economic and financial affairs, but he was elected as DLP MP but crossed the floor two years ago. In the British-type parliamentary system such a change does not require a by-election or renewal of the MP's mandate under his new party's hat. Now voters can have their say about the change of party, whether they really like the candidate, and more. Mr. Mascoll's portfolio is a hot one and his rise to "co-leader" status in the BLP may make him loved by fewer on either side of the party divide. He is quoted in the Sunday Sun as saying to a crowd of BLP supporters "Deep in your hearts, you know I deserve to be a Member of Parliament". These could be prophetic words. This is the race to watch for me.

Third, Taiwan's voters went to the polls this week and elected the opposition Nationalist Party to a landslide victory in legislative elections, winning 81 of 113 seats. This is a big dent for the policies of Taiwan's president Chen Shui-bian and his drive to formalise the de facto independence from the People's Republic of China (PRC). The president resigned immediately as chairman of the ruling Democratic Progressive Party. Some critics point to this policy as having dented Taiwan's competitiveness and greatly increasing tensions with the PRC. Presidential election are due March 22, 2008, and the Nationalists now have a 20% lead with their candidate Ma Ying-jeou. This election victory should be borne in mind when thinking of recent accusations of Barbados' DLP getting funding from Taiwan.