Welcome

Dennis Jones is a Jamaican-born international economist, who has lived most of the time in the UK and USA, and latterly in Guinea, west Africa. He moved back to the Caribbean in 2007. This blog contains his observations on life on this small eastern Caribbean island, as well as views on life and issues on a broader landscape, especially the Caribbean and Africa.

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Friday, January 11, 2008

Barbados election fever heating up

Many observers are saying that Barbados' current election campaign is by far the most vigorous and exciting. Remember that in the last election the difference between the two main parties was less than 8,000 votes, but in the distribution of parliamentary seats in the British-inspired first-past-the-post system the BLP gained a huge majority. So, the last election race was very close (see cartoon alongside from Nation front page). Some of this real contest is now spilling into the kind of behaviour that is not common in Barbados at elections or other times. Press reports indicate several assaults of party workers, the latest involving attacks with cutlasses. That is an unwelcome development and those close to the parties need to ensure that if the attackers are true supporters that they be found and duly sanctioned. Fear politics is a slippery slope from which it can be very difficult to return: see Jamaica in our own region.

I am interested how sensitive information gets leaked at election time. Today's papers have DLP ads with copies of checks cashed or deposited in 2003 (around the last election time) by BLP operatives in various guises, including a check made to the PM himself. This is part of the "great debate" on campaign financing, which is less clear cut in Barbados than it could be and got public airing at a DLP rally last night (see Nation report). These may be "large and irregular payments" but there is nothing to show that they were inappropriate. Anyway, it's good politicking. One BLP notable, Dame Billie Miller (whom I always regard as speaking sensibly) called recently for the campaign finance issue to be revisited and clarified.

A CADRES poll published today shows the DLP with a slight lead over BLP, by 35% to 30% voter support, and a 9% swing against the ruling BLP. However, the real dilemma rests with the true "third party", undecided voters, who are some 34%. On leadership, there is still a clear preference for Owen Arthur with 48% support, though down from 52% in October. Opposition leader, David Thompson, however has grown in support with 41%, compared to 29% in October. Support for Mia Mottley (Deputy PM) as possible PM has fallen dramatically, to 7% (from 13%). Support for Clyde Mascoll as possible PM remains low and falling, to 3%.

If the vote were to be based on the election ads then I think the DLP would win as they have the catchier tunes and use a better play on words than the BLP. I like their "Tell David that I with Dem" and "It's time for change" jingles. But I also like the BLP's "Moving with Owen" and "Bees yes. Dems no. To the polls here we go" jingles. All exploit Soca or Crop Over based tunes. But I am also already tired of hearing them every few minutes; now there should be some thought to limit spending on these ads, though I am sure that the radio stations are lapping up the extra revenue.

This is my first time to live through a Caribbean election campaign. Not surprising, it's a party. But I also admire the energy here, with a caravan of party leaders and spokesmen touring the island each evening to make speeches.

I was impressed by some of the BLP proposals to promote health, including allowances for gym membership. Now that is what I could vote for. But I have no vote here.

I will spend part of the weekend with some Bajans whom I know are avid supporters of one party and I will try to gauge how they see things from a partisan viewpoint, and if they can possibly see things from any other viewpoint.

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