Human Behaviour: Hard To Understand?

I just spent a weekend in New York City learning about how to understand human behavior and try to make money from that. I was in the arms of two trading experts who teaching their particular techniques. One of the these traders specializes in the world of Elliott Wave analysis, and how this can map out future price movements. I wont try to replicate his explanations but I know the analysis hard to do well but is very powerful Elliott waves map human emotions and are evident in many markets where there is some form of open outcry for prices. The other trader uses different techniques, including Japanese candlesticks, which show the psychology of market participants as represented by opening and closing prices. I don't know if any of this will make me a better trader but I have to basis to be so, and am so grateful for people like these professional traders to share their knowledge.

But, the weekend had started with a minor disaster. After arriving at JFK on Friday night, the cab had deposited my daughter and me in Midtown Manhattan. I had talked with the cab driver on the way and discovered he was from Shanghai, and I remembered his name. By the time that I had to leave for my training the next morning, I could not find the shoulder bag in which I had my ID and all of my credit cards and my cash! I could not figure out how it might have been left in the cab, but it seemed that was the case. But, it was the weekend and a call to 311 to report the loss was met with news that I needed to wait till Monday for more information. By then I would be back on my way to Barbados. I had just US5, but fortunately my stepdaughter's boyfriend was attending the course as my guest and had cash for me. I could at least get through the next two days. I decided that at the end of the course I would just try to search thoroughly once more.

I went for beers and burgers with my tutors and a few other students during Saturday evening. I had no cares and hoped that I could pay my way, as I tucked in. Thankfully, our tutors were treating us as the poor hapless traders that we might really be still. We enjoyed their generosity and took it in the spirit offered, and with a few spirits and beers to wash away all the fatigue.

I enjoyed both days of the course and at its end went for a walk to the wonderful Apple 24 hours store near Central Park. First, I also strolled along the streets between East 42nd and 56th Streets along Lexington Avenue, which had been closed off for 'Street fest'. I walked and talked with a man from Dallas who had also been on the course. About 40 stalls were in each block, lining each side. Asians sold smoothies, fresh fruit, phone and iPod accessories; Latinos sold regional foods as well as French crepes; Greeks sold souvlakis and gyros; Sikhs and Middle Easterners sold sheets and scarves and hats and gloves and so on. Most stores were closed, and the fast food giants were not really expecting so much business. I saw European looking people were mainly the buyers. I found blacks largely absent: out of nearly nearly 600 stalls there were only about 5 manned by blacks (selling reggae CDs and jerk chicken and beads); and black patrons were so scarce. What was that? The story of economic disempowerment was as clear as could be. That's a bigger economic story for another day, though. I was thinking about how prices were changing, if at all, as all the buyers met all the sellers. Would I be able to use any of my new analytic skills or would I just have to walk on and play dumb?

I decided that my little daughter, who had been a constant user of my iPod Nano, and now knew my music better than me, needed to have her own device. Pink seemed the colour of choice and having used the cash I had to buy it, I decided that prudence meant saving the rest of the cash to pay for my cab the next day. Pity. I had seen some bargains on the street and really wanted to save a few dollars. So, back to Midtown I started to wend. I really enjoyed seeing the cars and cabs struggling with the policemen to maintain traffic order as they dealt with the closed avenue. New Yorkers are really quite tolerant of the things they have to deal with. More so on a Sunday, when fewer people are around and also when the last of summer's warmth was there to make an autumn day balmy.

As my knees started to tell me that 40 blocks walking with bags was just about as much as I needed to do, I got a call from my host. "You should buy a lottery ticket," he told me. I asked him why. Your cab driver is on his way with your bag. I smiled and just said, "That's faith, my friend. Leave it to those who can to solve the problems you have." I was a mere 8 blocks from his apartment and walked a little faster. I arrived and put my bags down. I pulled out a bottle of rum that I had brought as a gift but had not yet decided who would be deserving. Now I knew who should get it: the Shanghai taxi man.

We stood on the street looking for the cab to arrive, and in a few minutes it did. I think what made me happiest was that the driver looked so pleased to have found me. He explained that he had found the bag yesterday and tried to bring it back then, but had arranged with another tenant at the apartment block to leave a note with his number.My host had found the note but thought it was from me but could not understand it. Anyway, I took back my bag and all my 'important papers' were in tact. I handed the driver a box of Guyana's stellar El Dorado 15 year old rum. He laughed and thanked me. I gave up a prayer and thanked him.

No matter how much we try to understand human behaviour and for whatever reasons, we always have to deal with the simple truths about people. Most people are good and only want to do good for themselves and unto others. Meanness is a rarity that newspapers and television and radio try to tell us is the norm. It ain't so. So, can I say that financial markets are driven by benign sentiments? I'll tell you in a few months time.

New York Lays Back: It's The Weekend

Something about New York City is very different during the weekend, and especially on a Sunday. It may be that all the hustle has to slow down sometime. It may be that with few corporate businesses open, those who live in the suburbs are just happy to be there and those who have no need to be on the street are indoors. Shoppers are out in force and in the areas where bargains may be had the keen are keener. But, those who venture out do so with a much more relaxed air. More tolerance seems apparent. People are in sweat pants, shorts, T shirts, sandals, and other summer leisure wear, not with their wing tips and high heels. They head to Central Park or to another park nearby to laze and watch others laze, or to take exercise and watch others play sport.

People--and they are of all ages--also are out eating and that is really a good part of a weekend's activity: brunch and the New York Times are a wonderful combination. If you love Jewish deli food or Chinese dim sum, the weekend, especially Sunday is the time to get your eat on. I had the joy of doing both. I went to the famed Katz's Deli, near Soho--jammed tables and long lines do not put you off. I also went to Jung Fong, in Chinatown, which looks like a huge banqueting hall but is dim sum paradise: congee, steamed dumplings, barbequed chicken feet, etc.

Sports fans can also put their supports on. I found a great bar that made watching football like standing on the terraces in England. Mad, yelling men peering at several screens as one or other English Premier League match was played, or this weekend, World Cup qualifying matches. Americans have truly taken to football--though they are hard pressed to call it that rather than 'soccer'. But love it they do, and with the Latin American and European influences in NYC, the football fever is high. "United!" or "C'mon Chelsea!" are belted out in accents ranging from pure English (Lancastrian or Cockney) through nasal New York or East coast drawl. But, it does not stop there. Those who love the French versions--many are from west Africa--or the Italian variants, are also there waiting their turn. The street is packed with those waiting to get in. On match day you could spend more than 12 hours in a bar watching the round leather ball being biffed all over the place. Magic!

I took the time to head over to Brooklyn, not to sample Caribbean food. I mean, why leave the Caribbean for that? But to enjoy the new energy that is filling some of the nearby neighbourhoods, as Yuppies look to get a little more air and space for the dollars they have to spend. Some of the neighbourhoods have the Lower East Side feel but with a lot more weirdness going on. You may have to ignore the transvestites, and the body piercings and the coloured hair and the same sex couples. This is New York, not Bridgetown. Some new and funky eateries have opened up and if it's Japanese,my stepdaughter is bound to have tried it, and so would we. I love to try all those things with fish and seaweed. I like to have dishes of hot sticky rice with eel and vegetables. Don't you?

The younger ones still have energy after 9pm to head off to a club or to go bowling. The older, and wiser, ones take their cue to head back toward homestead, knowing that the night session of tennis is just getting into full swing. Who's on tonight? Whoever it is they will have to excuse me while I don my jimmy jams and curl up on the sofa. Roger in his tuxedo-like Nike outfit does look sharp. Sharapova, pendant earrings dangling, looking like her tennis wear could do at a night club. Serena looking like the belle of any ball with sparkles and huge earrings. They all look ready to start the night shift. I've done my part and the day is well done. Well done me.

Coming down to Earth.

I frequently have reverse writer's block, meaning I don't write because I feel I have too many things I want to say, so I have to take a stand back and hope that the ideas can be distilled. I'm spending 10 days in New York enjoying watching tennis and taking a holiday. The world that I physically and emotionally inhabit has a large component that is dedicated to sport, so I was still up on its equivalent of a sugar high at the end of the Olympics for reasons every Jamaican knows and now much of the world is beginning to understand. I love to see people perform their sporting craft with grace and ease, knowing that is part some inate or well-nurtured trait and has involved years of real hard graft. That's why I will always prefer to see a Roger Federer, who moves on the court like a Fred Astaire of Rudolf Nurayev. That's why I love to watch film of Pele, who caressed a ball as if it were a fragile glass orb. I will never denegrate the skills and efforts of the other athletes, but that grace at the highest level is a real gift to behold.

I'm physically removed from the Caribbean right now but trying to stay in touch with what is happening. During hurricane season, that means checking the weather and hoping that a tropical storm or hurricane does not wreak havoc on any of the islands, especially those with relatives. So Tropical Storm Hanna is still beating around The Bahamas (daughter and parents living there). Tropical Storm Gustav dumped rain aplenty on Jamaica (parents and relatives living there) and has moved on toward the Gulf of Mexico (have to travel through that region soon). But, with the USA also often in the hurricane's sights, we have Louisiana dealing with Hurricane Gustav and evacuating citizens from New Orleans to avoid a repeat of the Hurricane Katrina catastrophe. So, where ever you turn there is something stalking you. So, I am not going to worry about stalkers, and just think about what my eyes are showing me.

When you visit a place like New York it's hard to fathom sometimes if you are seeing something graceful or something that is really artisanal. It's a big place and it's hard to not be impressed by the size. The metropolitan area has just over 8 million inhabitants in an area of 305 square miles. That's sizeable and NYC has been the US's largest city for nearly 220 years. The only other place that feels physically similar to me is Hong Kong, and for good reason--it's about 425 square miles with about 7 million people. Having spent a lot of my years living in London (7 1/4 million people in about 610 square miles) I understand why people want to say that NYC and London are similar. Believe me, my friend, they are not at all. New York has none of the poetic grace of London. William Wordsworth's "Upon Westminster Bridge" will always ring true for London, but not for New York:

Earth has not anything to show more fair:
Dull would he be of soul who could pass by
A sight so touching in its majesty:
This City now doth, like a garment, wear
The beauty of the morning; silent, bare,
Ships, towers, domes, theatres, and temples lie Open unto the fields, and to the sky;
All bright and glittering in the smokeless air.
Never did sun more beautifully steep In his first splendour, valley, rock, or hill;
Ne'er saw I, never felt, a calm so deep!
The river glideth at his own sweet will:
Dear God! the very houses seem asleep;
And all that mighty heart is lying still!

The sheer vertical scale of New York City is what makes it stand apart, along with its huge avenues that have no equivalent in either of the other two cities I mentioned. This city is about urban compression. Because of that desire to build into the sky it's taken people a long time get back to Earth. You're always close to ground in London. However, I notice that New Yorkers seem to be getting terrestial again. You find small neighbourhood parks, planted with all kinds of legal herbs, vegetables, fruit, and flower. You read about people wanting to make use of whatever small outdoor space they can to make a garden: the joy of hand mowing an area that is 6 feet-by-6 feet is something I cannot relate to, but then again I cannot get excited about paying US$2000 to live in a space about the same size. Londoners, with their houses and gardens even in the densest urban districts, would find it hard to hide a wry smile.

I cannot pinpoint when it started, but somewhere during the tenures of Mayors Koch (1978-89), Dinkins (1990-93), Guiliani (1994-2001) and Bloomberg (since 2002), NYC became more civilized, cleaner, easier to manoeuver, more fun to visit, better to live in, more attractive to look at. I remember its grime--not much different from London at one time, and a familiar urban nightmare. I remember its traffic congestion,which now seems to be still a real problem in the rush hours and in certain parts of the city--residents may tell me otherwise. I remember its extensive but relatively cheap underground rail system (similar to London in making the area whole and moving the vast majority of people each day; still great value at US$ 2 a trip, and possible transfers to buses). I remember reading about its crime, though I have never seen any crime incident in the 25 years or so that I have visited. Eating out has always been easy and pleasurable for all the variety, and that seems to have increased, if that is possible.

I've never studied NYC's economic history, but have seen some of its evolution, especially as manufacturing and processing industries changed, leaving behind wonderful buildings that were ripe for dereliction. Seeing the Garment and Meatpacking Districts districts transform into areas for chic clothes shops and gourmet restaurants is satisfying to me, because the essence of the areas remain but the purposes have morphed. So, these areas are working hard to stay relevant and true to themselves. Not like Covent Garden, whose flower market, was replaced by a plethora of other things chic.

New York City does not have what London offers in terms of open spaces. Its rivers are there but do not have the same social power of The Thames, dividing London into two cultural halves which you ignore at your peril, providing the base for economic activity that was once direct (shipping, warehousing, etc.) and now disconnected (riverside housing, eating and dining, and financial services). Crossing them by foot does not evoke much romance, as many of them are huge constructions in steel, iron, or concrete.

There is Central Park but it's like one large grassy oasis that serves the whole city; there are a few smaller parks that are like dots. But there is nothing like the choice of Hyde Park, St. James' Park, Kensington Gardens, Battersea Park, Holland Park, Hampstead Heath, etc.

Like London, New York is really largely about its people, and here it is very much like London. It's been a receiver point for centuries, and many people easily forget from where they came once they are in New York. I overheard some young people talking in the park yesterday and extolling the virtues of living abroad--"It's really good to live, with, y'know, foreigners for a while; getting to know about their cultures and stuff, y'know". Their clipped American accents painted a picture of WASPs talking--because I too have preconceived notions when I think of Americans. Then I looked across, and not one of these kids had a European-looking face, and all looked like they were new generation Indo-Pakistan stock. Good that they identify themselves so clearly as not foreigners.

I left the park and walked back to the apartment where I am staying. It seemed that with the tourists and the variety of locals I passed with their different ethnic backgrounds (Koreans, Senegalese, Hispanics, Chinese, Italians, black Americans) there was enough of the world right there, though true to say that seeing foreigners and living with them are not the same thing.

So, NYC seems to be more like my workhorse athlete, not my poet in motion. My bias may come from not living here and growing up with the sense of differences that I can always feel in London.

I'm off to explore another foreign part of NYC this morning, with a trip to Chinatown. I'm not finished with my thoughts about New York, but I need Sunday morning food to think, and so with the prospect of dim sum clouding my mind, I will leave you with some urban food for thought.