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Dennis Jones is a Jamaican-born international economist, who has lived most of the time in the UK and USA, and latterly in Guinea, west Africa. He moved back to the Caribbean in 2007. This blog contains his observations on life on this small eastern Caribbean island, as well as views on life and issues on a broader landscape, especially the Caribbean and Africa.

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Friday, October 10, 2008

A Few Choice Words.

Asian markets just rolled over in continuation of the New York rout on Thursday, which showed the Dow Jones Industrial Average close below 9000, and proceed to erase all the gains from the previous "bull market": Tokyo's Nikkei shed 9 1/2 percent; the London FTSE 100 shed 8 3/4 percent; and the European DJ STOXX 50 shed 8 1/2 percent; most other major European equity markets shed around 7 percent each. The pound got pounded in currency markets, dropping from around 1.71 to the US dollar to just under 1.68, with concerns about a weak general economic outlook and housing market concerns were worsened by the possible adverse effects of the collapse of Iceland's banking system. People had a great yen to run for the Japanese currency, which fell to under 98 to the US dollar from nearly 100 in New York. Pretty good night's work. I watched and listened to commentary and the voices of most people reflected the panic that is seizing people, and causing seizure of the system. New York traders woke to meet the last day of a week's long nightmare.

Some of the commentary that came across this morning reflect the high emotions flying around.

"For 100 weeks now they have been wrong--Paulson, Bernanke, that guy at the NY Fed. You rely on them?"
(Jim Rogers, Chairman, Rogers Holdings--major investor).

"Why do you want to keep putting Band Aids on a cancer patient? Let them market fall and then let it pick up its own pieces." (Jim Rogers, Chairman, Rogers Holdings--major investor).

The futures indicators suggested during the night that New York would continue the "negative feedback loop" and keep rolling down. And guess what? Traders dumped stocks like they were pox ridden, Dow (or should we call it the Down Index?) opened down another whopping 700 points. mummy! Help! Someone asked "Does anyone know what a bid (buy) is?"

It's crazy out there. Cris Vallario, Bloomberg TV, noted:"I heard traders yell 'Come on baby!' The Dow is only now down 100 points, after dropping nearly 700 points (about 9 percent) at the open."

Now lots of commentators are saying "People are trying to find a bottom". And they say all is not rosy and gay? they say stocks are cheap. It's a good time to buy. President Bush came and gave another rousing speech. This time markets just did not react; so that's better than tanking further.

My friend, the VIX, is one of the few things rising: it rocketed to a new record of around 71 not long after the market opened, then popped higher to near 75, and is now (midday) hovering a little below that level.

We will see where the day settles ahead of the weekend meetings of G7 Finance Ministers in Washington. Talk of guaranteeing interbank lending seemed to help calm nerves (especially as reports came out that oil traders were shunning Goldman Sachs, fearing they may not get paid). Lots of talk of having a global "bank holiday" to let markets settle. Nice idea--not. What do you with transactions that need to be settled? What happens when markets reopen?

I now understand why they called the 1930s economic slump the Great Depression. But there is nothing great about being depressed.

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