Thursday, November 29, 2007
Shaking all over: Earthquake hits Barbados
My wife's driver came by shortly after to deliver her car (after she had travelled yesterday) and he needed to have a ride back. He was going to walk to St. Philip. I was reluctant but took him part way, not wanting to get stuck in an quickly thickening body of cars. On the way we heard that Bridgetown was already in gridlock as cars and passengers tried to flee the city centre and head home (inland and higher).
I got back home within 15 minutes and then spent the rest of the late afternoon with neighbours comparing our stories> Some had been driving and could sense the shuddering as they rolled along. Some were in offices and not sure of what was going on till they noticed bookshelves shaking. Some were sleeping and felt nothing!
This is my first time feeling a quake. I was in Tortola a few months ago when a quake of around 4.3 hit the area during the night, but I slept through it (see previous blog). I had visited Mexico City shortly after a major quake there in the 1980s and the devastation was phenomenal. Here no visible signs of damage are so far evident.
Early reports indicate some damage across the island, including a part of Parliament being damaged. More reports will no doubt emerge, as the radio is full of callers. Phone lines were saturated or down but BlackBerry still could send messages and internet was still working.
Tomorrow is Barbados' 41st anniversary of independence and I suspect that many will not want to venture to the beach, fearing a tsunami. Let's hope that it does not arrive. The PM was due to have an independence reception tonight, but so far no word if it will go ahead. I hear that some of tomorrow's celebrations have been cancelled.
Other blogs are following with more technical details, such as Bajan Underground. Here's hoping for a quiet night.
Wednesday, November 28, 2007
GoGrow: Barbados
This new blog reminds me of when I owned my first home in London, and started an urban garden. It was planted with potatoes, corn, lettuce, tomatoes, carrots, rhubarb, peas, flowers and fruit shrubs (blackberries) and trees (apples and pears). Everything tasted wonderful, though the insects often got the first taste. My first daughter wont remember but she and I spent much time there and she learnt at the age of two how to sow seeds and dig; she will find a picture in the albums of her first dog carrying a bucket of potatoes!
My father has always had a garden and in Jamaica he retired to spend hours planting yam, sweet potato, corn, cassava, green ("Congo") peas, and raising chickens. He trained in psychology and believes firmly that connection with the land is essential for good physical and mental health. I agree, if only to have somewhere to go when times get rough inside the house: married men should know what I mean.
In England, this idea of connection to the land has become a national pastime and even extends to the government granting land for people to plant, in the form of "allotments".
Growing your own will not mean that you become self sufficient in food to eat, but it will bring pleasure and relaxation. It can be back-breaking work to dig a lot of soil, but what's wrong with that? It can help work against some of our bug bears like the high price of some fresh produce. It can also be one of the best envirnmental moves one makes. Having land planted is better than having it put to grass in terms of maintenance that requires machines: less mowing, or none at all, and that can mean less petrol consumption (though I always had a push or electric mower). Better to have a garden full of plants than a ard covered in concrete: the rain loves plants and vice versa.
So, wishing the new blogger good luck, and hoping that the new blog inspires a growing audience, I'll leave you to check out the site.
Monday, November 26, 2007
Guinea is waiting for change
There are also some constants, such as the throngs of people on the main street in Conakry waiting for taxis (see picture above). There are the groups of youths playing football in the street. Future stars? Who knows? I have already written about the daily grind.
Guinea recently went through a major "social upheaval", when in January this year a national strike developed into a major push for political change, resulting in the death of over 30 people (in terms of official figures), and led to a change of government with one built around consensus and largely free of people who had previously held ministerial office. Now, over nice months later, the unspoken cry is for the change expected and promised after those strikes. There is a sense of foreboding as people assess the value of the deaths and social strain.
One area of life that I have seen where change is mixed is in the public administration. Public servants do not have a natural sense of serving the public, and many have been accused of privatizing the public service: only if one pays will one get service, and that payment does not go to the State. A sense of seriousness amongst public officials is something that is often lacking: poor comportment, sloppy dress, attitudes that show little care for those who seek service or make use of public building. This is not unique to Guinea and many will say it is a universal problem of public adminstration. I know many public servants who work so hard it's unimaginable how they keep living as they seem to shoulder every issue and have the ability to resolve many of them with good ideas. The ideas often fall due to lack of commitment on the part of politicians or opposition from other public officials, but dont deny that the ability is there.
How can one motivate most public servants to give that same high percentage to their work? I often talk of "sanctions", meaning that poor work has a harsh consequence with the ultimate being dismissal. Yes, that will bring social problems as a bread winner and family has to do without bread. But getting money on false pretences is theft. Some of the public administration failures are due to an unwillingness to recognize some simple truths, such as this.
In the early-1990s, Guinea suffered a failed coup and one of the symbols is the carcass of a bombarded "palace" (which has been built for African Union conferences and major public meetings etc). That it was never repaired has been for me a symbol of resistance to change; like holding on to old bus tickets. Now, I see that a set of Asian workers (Koreans, I understand) have begun to strip it down and begin refurbishing.
It may all be part of celebrations for Guinea's 50th anniversary of independence, in 2008, but it is a nontrivial development in my mind, and is more than cosmetic. Sometimes new social positions have to be built on new physical structures and this may be one of those cases.
Saturday, November 24, 2007
Say cheese, please
I felt very sorry for an American man and his son, who went into Neal's Yard to get bread. They were tempted to sample but stopped by the cry of "Come awn. Let's go!" from him wife. Gladly, the rest of the family pounced on her for being in a hurry to go nowhere, as usual. However, my poor American, brow-beaten and sad-faced trudged out of the shop, bread under arm and not a morsel of cheese to whet his appetite. "Come back alone." I whispered to him. "I will." he replied.
Going back to England is always pleasant for me, having lived there for over 30 years. The place is always familiar, even though the physical changes are now so great that I have a hard time figuring out where I am. I would have a hard time driving around without getting lost, especially around Heathrow, near which I used to live. But London always has bounce, and a skip that I much prefer compared to New York or Paris. This time it was nice to pass through The City [London's main financial district], where I used to work and also St James's Square, near where I went to school.
Friends took me to a great fish (and chips) restaurant in Highgate last night, run by a Georgian family, and this again opened my eyes to how London has changed with the inflow of central and eastern Europeans--seemingly much more numberous now especially in the service sector. Actually, the restaurant offers much more, including wonderful grilled sea bream--part of a healthy meal that comes with just salad. They offer a few bowl of fish soup with each meal. As I have mentioned to restaurant and hotel people in Barbados, you have to give customers a few incentives.
The trip had a nice surprise because I discovered that bus transport between the Heathrow area and nearby Underground stations is free. London has greatly modernised its public transport fares and everyone talks about getting an "Oyster" (a card that has a basic amount of credit and allows travel, but the credit can be increased at will, and using it is cheaper and faster than paying individual fares).
However, "sticker shock" is also the order of the day. The pound has strengthened much against the US dollar (around 2.06 as I write), so those UK prices now sting a lot. Still, things are great value and usually great quality. My daughter, who is studying at a university in the UK this year is suffering that big time. She is normally based in Canada, so with the Canadian dollar also strengthening, she's really only traded one pain for another.
Well, I will head back to New York and then on to Barbados today. I do not relish more cold weather and sandwiching that between tropical climates is not fun. So, another few days of muffling up ahead of getting back to my life in T-shirt and shorts.
Monday, November 19, 2007
Village life in Guinea
Guinea's president has prided himself on being a peasant and urged his citizens to follow his examples. This is a trend that many Guineans have tried to develop. Not many can take advantage of the possibilities, but it is interesting that both young and old office workers are trying to put down some roots in land, usually in areas where they have family contacts. There are many risks, though mostly minor. The risks involve theft of crops and supplies. They include weather and nature-related threats: Guinea has rain in overabundance during July-September but that can aid and destroy. Access is always a problem, but can also limit unwanted visitors. Managing such plantations from a distance is not a good option, and these new farmers will soon have to made decisions about what are their priorities. Depending on family members is a good way to limit risks, but is no guarantee.
In a country where the daily grind can be really burdensome this return to the land can also be therapeutic, and help keep people sane. That may be a romantic notion but it's in keeping with comments that the new farmers make. It's a return to some basic and important elements of national life. If children can be involved then it's also a good way to keep their lives well focused.
I wish my new farmer friend much success and will be keeping an eye on how his plantation develops.
Sunday, November 18, 2007
Getting through a day in Conakry
Sounds familiar? Here, it arrives in large 50 kilogram sacks and are loaded and loaded by hand. If a truck breaks down, it takes little time for people to help distribute the contents!
Saturday, November 17, 2007
Caught off guard...again
To go back to my previous blog about security guards (see link), it was comforting to hear from some Guinean friends that sleeping on the job is a common problem (and supports my theory that it's part of the training--the reality is that these guys work other jobs during the daytime and need to catch some sleep). So, is stealing diesel. Again, using the "see no evil" notion. With no evidence of a break-in the guards will swear that they have no idea how the diesel is being reduced at a rate faster than is being used by the generator. I guess that walking off with a gallon a day does not count. Duh!
Wednesday, November 14, 2007
Working children
Sunday, November 11, 2007
Caught off guard
During my time in Guinea between 2003-2006 I had to wake my guards several times and remind them that they should be awake to be able to at least defend themselves. Their company told me that if this happened I was to take their night stick and radio and then report the incident to the company. I had other ideas. I once doused one guard with water, only to be assured that "I was not sleeping!" My funniest event was one night when I threw stones to wake the guard and then more stones to create noises elsewhere, and while he searched I took his radio and night stick. He searched frantically for these when he got back to his post, so I threw more stones for him to chase then replaced the items. He came back looking very curious and very alert. He did not sleep the rest of the night. But when I asked him in the morning if everything had been quiet in the night he said "Nothing strange to report." My final story to share was of a sleeping guard, whom I photographed, and left him the print of himself sleeping. When asked if he had slept during the night, he said "I was very tired but I never slept."
The picture attached here is of a new standard in sleeping on the job. The guard works in a government ministry and obviously thought nothing of sleeping under the stairs in the entrance lobby of the ministry. I think this behaviour needs no comment.
Where Africa has hope
Quality services are something that Guinea and many African countries lack. Public services often suffer from government budgets that are so strained that wages (often the first priority for a government) cannot be paid regularly. Thus, other public services are going to be provided in at best sporadic fashion. If the means of supplying the services have never been well established you will see a rapid deterioration in public provision of services such as water and electricity supply. Guinea was notable for many years as a "dark" country, where day or night few areas could rely of electricity and most of the area was in darkness once daylight was gone. That is an aspect that has changed in the past year after a series of national strikes forced changes in how the country is governed. However, where the private sector is allowed to operate services of at least reasonable quality tend to come forward. One area where this has shown spectacular growth is telecommunications. Guinea is just seeing an "explosion" in mobile phone services as Orange (a French company) launched its services on the market this week.
They went on a marketing blitz, which saw the capital plastered with company signs and flags showing where cards could be bought appearing almost every retail space overnight.They added a few "parties" in the capital and were out in force at the weekend trying to encourage more customers. They seem ready to really engage with the market leader, Areeba (part of the MTN telecom group), who started providing services in mid-2006 and has apparently taken some 60 percent of the mobile market. Orange is basically giving away SIM cards (you pay 15,000 Guinea francs [about US$ 4] for a card but it comes with the same value of credit). Orange's service is currently a bit quirky, for instance you get no information about how to activate your SIM or how to know your number, and you have to make calls as if you are calling from abroad. But they are showing that they will aggressively get into the mix. They seem to have taken most of the new buildings that had mushroomed in the capital in the past year.
Areeba had turned the market when it started in 2006 with pay-as-you-talk SIM cards, which they made easily available by having sales outlets almost everywhere and charging relatively little. This was after years of difficulty to get a mobile phone and the scandalous behaviour of the main (national) provider, Sotelgui, who provided poor service but also allowed price gouging whenever new SIMs were put on the market. Both Areeba and Orange will offer aggressive competititon and the support of international companies. In a country of some 9 million people there is enough market for both.
Both Areeba and Orange are basing their services on national coverage. That national image will quickly seem real because the logo of each company is quickly covering every free space, from the walls of football stadiums, to every lamp post, to many minibuses, etc. In quick time most of the country gets reliable mobile services. Some would say that this will probably make a major change in how things will develop. When most of the country can communicate without needing to actually move that is a platform for very fast development. (Another possible twist in the future could be political: in Cote d'Ivoire several years ago it was the existence of such communication that helped cement legitimate election results as people could quickly relay information before polling station officials had time to "change" the outcomes.
Sure, a better life needs more than the ability to make phone calls on mobile telephone, but when you have been denied many trappings of modernity it is a significant step. Isolation is no longer imposed by geographical separation. When you can get such services on a pay-as-you-go basis at very affordable prices, that will change a lot of people's lives. This is not the solution to Guinea's or Africa's problems but it has tended to be an important start in getting past the problems. So, though it's early days I will watch this dust-up over mobile phone services with interest to see if it does provide a solid base for significant social and economic change.
Friday, November 09, 2007
Back to Africa
I have had the opportunity to make the triangular trip both ways myself. I have taken small gifts from England (duty free items or good English cheese and jam), and given (not sold) them in Africa. I have taken a body from Africa (my daughter's nanny), and I have shipped rum, rum cake, jams, pickles and spices from the Caribbean to Britain.
I have done the triangular trip in reverse. too. I have taken goodies directly from the Caribbean to Africa (jerk seasoning was a great hit; reggae music had hit the Continent years ago). I sent bodies from there to Europe (my tennis coaches were given the chance to go and train in France), and then taken goodies from England to the Caribbean (nothing like English beer and cheese). None of this is likely to raise any red flags.
But the rest of the world's interaction with Africa has been fragmented, and tends to be exploitative. Africa has struggled--some would say "failed miserably"--to make things good for itself. It's hard to generalize but Generals have been amongst Africa's major problems, as they have led army revolts that have ended democracies, held on to power too long, transformed themselves into civilian leaders and then held on longer. And what can those militaristic rulers show for it? Very little in terms of improved well being for their populations
Africa is always a fertile ground for new entrepreneurs, home grown or foreign. Good returns are there for those ready to take some risks. Amongst the major investors now in Africa are the Chinese, both the State and private sector. Many African countries, and Guinea is not different, have seen this as bringing short term improvements. Chinese government contracts have built roads and some "feel good" structures such as new Parliament buildings and a lot of sports stadiums (the Caribbean knows this latter from the recent Cricket World Cup). But Chinese goods--any many of them are better than Europe and the US had been prepared to offer--are readily available, and that too makes peoples lives seem better in terms of choices and costs. Certainly, Chinese traders and goods are more common place in African cities that European and particularly American traders (if one excludes major mining and petroleum companies), and are affecting peoples lives at every turn. Africans know a lot about Chinese food now!
So, as I go back to a place where I worked for three years, I am going to try to observe what has changed in the last year of so, and figure out if things are moving ahead, stalling or going backwards. Whatever I find in terms of economic and social changes, I know I will find people who are warm and ready to welcome someone who is prepared to spend time trying to deal with the many problems that exist on this continent.
Sunday, November 04, 2007
Peace and tranquility: A weekend at Ottley's
We last visited Ottley's seven years ago, before our latest child was born, and had a truly romantic few days. Now the "little one" (who was not conceived at Ottley's) gets a chance to visit before either of her older sisters. Ottley's is the personification of peace and relaxation. Its vast expanse (35 acres) usually ensures that you are not cheek-by-jowl with other residents. This time we are staying in one of the cottages and that offers even more seclusion.
Ottley's is famous for its food. Not just the style but also the quality and value for money. Not only is everything beautifully set out but it always tastes very good. The setting of the restaurant in the remnants of the the sugar boiling house works very well.
What we have really enjoyed this trip is being able to take advantage of this tranquility with a young child. We have explored together the rain forest, which is a part of the property. Perhaps we will come back in a few years and see how the coconuts and mango seeds that were sprouting have turned into good sized trees. We did not see any wild hogs this time, but did see a lot of green monkeys. I have enjoyed walking around the property before sunrise, when not a living soul--person or animal is stirring.
Saturday, November 03, 2007
Boycotting restaurants
Friday, November 02, 2007
Learning to love the roller coaster: Another week as a forex trader
Monday saw new highs against the greenback then a huge buying spree of the US dollar! And it went up and down and at the end of the day, it was hard to know which way the market would turn. I made a few trades and they mostly went bad. Tuesday I decided to just cool out. This is what I had planned to do this week anyway, but when you see and interesting development, well, you trade.
Wednesday, I had little time for trading and in fact I would be away from my platform most of the day. I regretted that as I wanted to witness the action even though I did not have a position open. The statement came around 2.30 pm EST and I got home about 2.40. In the minutes after the statement the market was in love with the decision and statement and many currencies were heading for 100 point shifts. Had I been in with the right position it could have been a cool $1000 in the blinking of a few eyelids. I had to try for catch up. I managed that little by little later in the day.
There is a certain character to the activity of the market, which I find attractive: it is up and down all the time for reasons that are clear and for no apparent reason at all. As a trained economist, it is incredible to witness the power of market forces moving prices, keeping prices unchanged as buyers and sellers tussle to determine the direction of the currency pairs, or sometimes making huge movements (30+ points) in one minute, and then reversing those movements sometime later with equal variation. I have accepted that one I set a stop-loss I can deal with how much I may lose; what I have to then manage is to manage my emotions if the deal is turning positive and especially if the price is rising well. I have learned not to close deals out prematurely, except with Euro/US dollar (which seems to have great difficulty moving past every barrier either up or down, so deals take an age to mature).
It is also important to start understand the rhythm of the market. There are times when the push to new highs or lows is at its strongest; in between there can be a lot of turbulence, even to the extent that huge dips or spikes can occur before the true position emerges at a higher or much lower point. The herd of dealers is pushing hardest at certain times and if a position is to be breached it's as if there is no breathing space and boom the door opens to a new higher or lower position. Then the market takes a breather. Then it pushes again. Once certain key barriers are broken then the market's progress can seem relentless. Seeing the developments on a day's graph is nothing like seeing the price tussle take place especially as you see you position run further into gains. These major pushes are also important in that they trigger responses especially in the form of preset reverse orders, which can make the price shift back sharply before proceeding on its way.
It is also important to sense the inter-relationships between markets. The progress or decline of the stock markets have a major influence on currency pairs, especially in recent times with what is referred to as "carry trade". This refers to buying of cheap currencies to facilitate investment in markets of strong currencies. [check] Stock market rises trigger buying of certain currencies and vice versa. Where a day trader like myself is at a disadvantage is in not seeing the developments in other markets in real time, therefore professional dealers have a major edge.
In the mayhem of prices shooting up and down I initiated one trade totally by mistake (as the deal window was adjacent to the currency pair I wanted) and to my shock and horror bought two lots of Euro/Japanese yen. What should I do with this lemon, I thought as the price started to plummet: I had kept away from things yen as the carry trade was causing havoc. But just in a blink the price turned and within half and hour the trade had gained 20 points. Thank you very much, I will cash that.
But watching a major push is something else, especially when the trend across the board is the same. Then it becomes like a race: which currency can set a new record first. The process is quite exhausting and after a few days of this the weekend is a real pleasure. I have been trading across the whole market, but I am paring back and may decide to just trade London and New York, if only to cut the hours.
I have lost a lot this week but I have also made a lot. This is first week where I have made over US$100 on deals. You have to take risks to get the rewards. That means dealing bigger lots. It also means sitting along the sometimes bumpy ride for a while. I had some large Euro/$ positions and bided out the time. I similarly had large Euro/Yen positions and did similarly. I also realised that, because I am not dealing with technical analysis beforehand the pull back can be deeper than expected. I have found the lower support levels and set a limit below them, which means a bigger potential loss, but just to protect the deal from early closing in all the turbulence. I also learned the hard way about booking profits too early and finding that a pull back closed the deal and so I missed the bigger rise to come. It is not easy to see (as I have done while writing this) a potential profit of $400 fizzle to some $90. But if "panic" says better take it, it is often the case that just after there is the break out and $400 is soon exceeded. This up and down can occur several times, and the "window" of movement could be 30+ points. It's tough on the nerves.
I do not have to go into individual deals. But I know that for professionals judgement and analysis reduce their risks. Amateurs like me have to rely a bit on luck. I have been trading for too short a time to feel some situations quickly. That is why I sometimes hesitate when there are quick movements, though it's also difficult to do all that is needed to not lose the gain, such as setting a new limit for closing the deal and making a bigger profit. That hesitation can lose a tidy $100 in a flash, and in that sense I have left a lot of money on the table. But, whatever. (In passing, I read on the http://www.onlinefxtrading.net/ blog how the guy there realised that he cannot make money with capital of only $250. Well, hello! When you have to put up between $35-100 for a "lot" ($10,000 of money to trade) that means you can maybe buy 1 or 2 lots unless you like risk and if that deal does well, then 1 times whatever is never much. I have found that you need to have around $2000 in the pot to have enough wiggle room to deal larger lots and lose and still be in the game.
I am smiling about what this process is doing. It could become difficult to not do it, but I will stop soon. It's easier when I have plenty of time. I am due to travel to Guinea in west Africa to work for few weeks, and if I do not have a sure internet connection I will not deal. I will also have other things to fill my time such as helping to deal with the issue of world poverty.
What I have discovered is that modern technology means that trading can be done 24 hours/5 days a week. One can trade in blocks and even trade in the morning at home, trade later at an airport, trade again later at a wireless hotspot, and so on. It's helped me move from having long lie-ins to getting up in the very early hours and staying up till late, unless I just close my account and say "No more!"
I'll keep you posted on developments, so to speak.