My head hurts: Do we need American Airlines so badly?

I am always suspicious about figures to do with the "benefits" of tourism. One of my big beefs is that the accounting is a bit skewed; we hear about the money coming in but do not look at the tourism-related money that goes out in many forms.

When I read stories such at the recent ones covering the Jamaican government's guarantee to American Airlines to continue flying to the island (see Gleaner report), I scratch my head. I want to watch the pin-head dancing to explain why money cannot be given to Air Jamaica to support it--not that I am in favour of that, just that I want to hear the arguments--but money can be found (US$ 4.5 million), lickety spit, for a foreign airline. I know that a lot of the tourism industry is supported by various forms of subsidies from government to hotels and airlines to keep up visitor numbers, so am always intrigued at what is the true net gain from all those visitors, when one strips away the headlines of "visitor arrivals increase", "tourism major foreign exchange earner", etc., remembering that a lot of the foreign exchange then goes back abroad. So, I sympathize with Paul Pennicock's (Air Jamaica, vice president-marketing) finger pointing at the goverment: he should know what he's dealing with, given that he was formerly the government's director of tourism. So real carefully what the Tourism Minister, Edmund Bartlett, is ready to pay for:

Under the deal, AA will not fly its planes into Jamaica if less than 65 per cent of the seats are taken up. However, if the aircraft is more than 65 per cent full but less than 75 per cent, Jamaica will be required to pay the 10 per cent revenue that the airline would lose. [I presume that Jamaica pays whatever is the actual difference between 65 and 75 percent, which could be only 1 percent.]

Minister Bartlett said, "that was a small price to pay for a deal that will see American making 19 new flights to Jamaica each week with the possibility that approximately 156,000 more visitors could make their way to the island over the 12 months."

He added, "This will earn more than US$96 million for Jamaica with the Tourism Enhancement Fund, which is financing the deal, earning US$1.2 million over the period. Even if you were to pay the US$4.5 million, look at the value of the thing."

That sounds like good leverage of government money, but is it the whole story? From another stance, I know a lot of people, who if given a share of the nearly US$ 5 million in their own pockets, would be happy to find their own way to Jamaica, without American Airlines.

Anyway, a lot more explaining needs to be done. Jamaica has invested a lot into tourism, and with more rooms coming available when major American airlines are raising fares and passenger fees due to much higher fuel costs--though crude oil prices fallen fast in recent weeks from near US$150 to around US$110 a barrel--and threatening to cut schedule flights to the Caribbean, the government may feel the squeeze on its proverbial private parts.

Governments are elected and then decide priorities. Governments are also in place to make decisions for the benefit of the population. These decisions are made from a very difficult set of conflicting demands, and the demands are never ending.

I know a lot of people in Jamaica who don't want to see money bogged down in some bureaucratic process to stop the funding to rebuild Bog Walk Gorge--again (see some comments in The Observer)!Or, better still, find a way to make a route that is more suitable for the heavy traffic that this single available route offers. Do the people only have pipe dreams?

People are also wondering while they wander across the new Hope River Bridge--the old bridge was washed away this week by Tropical Storm Gustav, and its torrent of rain. Tropical storms and hurricanes are also annual visitors that need to be accommodated. Is there hope for those people? They will be very cross if they have to keep crossing by this new Bailey bridge (or is it barely a bridge?).

People in Jamaica are also experiencing a different kind of tube riding than is familiar to some of the visitors from London or those Americans accustomed to tubing down fast flowing rivers on vacation.

These are the crosses that we have to bear. But, don't cross the people too many times.

Suffering fools gladly.

A Jamaican friend shared with me a story in the Gleaner of September 2 (see report), that points out how my peeps are dealing with the ravages of tropical storm Gustav. I'm sure that people will remember for a while the image alongside of the lady being carried over the river like she was on the back of St. Christopher. Cost? J$200 for the ride (US$2.75). But really a priceless experience. Better than a bobsled ride on Mystic Mountain, near Ocho Rios? I'm sure there was also someone nearby offering to clean the lady's clothes, and maybe redo her braids. Anyway, she had some stories to tell when she reached her job. Puts a new meaning to hill and gully riding.

A word to the International Olympic Committee. If the Games can have synchronized swimming why can't they have piggyback riding? Very simple event and it probably needs no instant review. We could include irritating judging based on opinions on artistic interpretation--imagine piggybacking and dancing "Nah linga". But, IOC, are you afraid that Jamaicans will bolt to the lead in this event too?

The image of another lady having her legs wiped off with disinfectant and then reportedly having lotion applied, after she had waded through muddy river water, will also be an image that should last for the ages. Cost of that "treatment"? J$20 (about US 30 cents). Another priceless experience? Better than an afternoon at the spa at Barbados' Sandy Lane or Kingston's Jencare? In the US, this would probably have led to a law suit for sexual assault. Someone in Jamrock may see the opportunity to offer this kind of service on a wider basis and have "bus stop spas" dotted around key points in the city, such as Half Way Tree. Why not offer a mani-pedi or facial freshen up after having to rub up against Marvin and Martha on a bus in the heat of the day? I give the ideas for free.

It is a well known fact that we in the Caribbean are creative people, and know how to deal with a range of adversities. Nothing against Americans and not belittling those in New Orleans at this time, but when they get hit by some natural disaster, it quickly takes on the proportion of international disaster and we all hear how "dem a suffa". When year after year we in the Caribbean live under the multiple beatings of tropical storms and hurricanes and volcano eruptions, we get barely a "Oh, look at those poor people where we took our beach holiday, John." Sure, we have fewer people at risk and ironically because we are poorer and less developed, the value of property damage is much less, but "we a suffa bad too".

We move on and try to make the most of life's daily challenges, and put a lot of trust in God. Meanwhile, we batten down hope that we have all of our loved ones safe during the oncoming onslaught of tropical storms and hurricanes: Ike is coming, and Josephine is forming (see names for 2008 and beyond).

Staying on message.

To say that I like blogging is like saying that a bee likes pollen. It's at times like this, during the stressful time of hurricane season, that I wonder what those who constantly beef about blogs and their content are really thinking or frightened of. I have yet to find a source of news and updates of current events that perform like blogs. Here I am in New York City, wanting to know what is happening in my native land. I read news reports online from my mobile phone and see TV bulletins if I can get near a television, or I can check in with some blogs. The Jamaica Gleaner has again shown that standard newspaper houses can be at the forefront of breaking news by having a blog (see http://go-jamaica.com/blog/). I spoke to my relatives by phone at last today, and sent some e-mails to friends and family elsewhere to say that all seemed alright, but the Gleaner blog has plenty of amateur video and journalists' brief reports to convince me that, while there may be a disaster in the making, much of country is not being ripped to shreds. The coverage is not polished, but it does not need to be. It's vivid and real, and that's often all that life is. We can add colour and flavour and politics and opinions if we want, but in the first place we want information, and it can come in the rawest fashion as far as I am concerned. I don't want to always wait 24 hours at least to know more about something major that is going on now. Those days are over.

I hope that by the time I get back to Barbados some of the local newspapers will have moved their heads from a place closer to their feet to see that above and around them is a manner of getting news and information out to the public speedily and with reasonable clarity. It's something they should have embraced a long time ago and to me there is a telling and somewhat disturbing indictment being built up about what are the interests--or better, lack of interests--of local news organs.

Hurricane Dean Blog

The Jamaican Gleaner has a hurricane blog running (see link), for those who wish to follow events as reported by a range of Gleaner reporters. The picture, borrowed from the blog, shows some of the devastation in Kingston. You'll read that some people still seem to act as if the hurricane will not pose serious risks to their lives.

The brunt of the storm (which is still at category 4) seems to have so far been felt on the southern part of the island, especially Kingston. But let's see how the rest of the night develops.

Hoping that Jamaica can come away with less than a total battering.

Jamaica prepares for Hurricane Dean

While we in Barbados seem to have avoided the full brunt of Hurricane Dean, its path has caused a range of problems and deaths in neighbouring islands, especially in St. Lucia, Dominica and Martinique. For us, the force of the hurricane was a mere category 2 on the Saffir-Simpson scale (winds between 96-110 miles/ an hour). But the storm has gained strength as it heads north, and is likely to reach category 5 (winds over 155 miles/249/154-177 kilometers an hour). Its eye seems to be headed directly for Jamaica, which is already under a hurricane warning (meaning expected within the next 24 hours). Haiti and the Dominican Republic may escape the eye, which may then pass toward Mexico's Yucatan (which could impose new havoc on an area heavily damaged just two years ago by Hurricane Wilma). We focus a lot on the English speaking Caribbean, but we need to remember that we are one region, despite language and cultural differences.

From what my father tells me, people are making the best preparations they can in Jamaica. CNN reports that shoppers are rushing to supermarkets for groceries and essentials such as batteries, stocking up on gasolene and kerosene; Air Jamaica and American Airlines have added flights to try to accommodate those wanting to leave the island.

Jamaica has a long history with hurricanes. The Joyous Jamaica website indicates that there have been around 66, counting from the 16th century. That's plenty for one small country to have to deal with. Gilbert (1988) and Ivan (2004) are the most recent, but many will remember others, including the series during the 1930s.

Praying for everyone in Jamaica and hoping that Dean turns and unleashes itself not directly over the island.

Hurricane Dean may soon be beating at the door

Hurricane Dean does not look set to hit Barbados directly, but is predicted to pass about 90-100 miles to the north during the next 12-24 hours. But, lots of precautions have been taken in anticipation of perhaps storm force winds and heavy rain. At home, all of our shutters are down and windows closed, movable objects are indoors, and we hope that neighbours have done something similar. The airport closes at 9pm tonight and should reopen at 9am tomorrow; flights by the US airlines had already been cancelled from earlier in the day. Lots of business closed in mid-afternoon and road works were suspended and warning signs removed, in case they became missiles in the expected high winds. Reports indicated that people were rushing to hardware and grocery stores to stock up on essential provisions. Category 1 shelters were advised to open.

News reports indicate Dean had sustained winds, which strengthened to 100 miles per hour midafteroon today, taking it past the 96-miles per hour threshold for a Category 2 hurricane. Its center is forecast to pass the French islands of Martinique and Guadeloupe by tomorrow morning, and Dominica could also be in the eye. Some experts suggest that it could become a Category 4 hurricane (meaning sustained winds between 131-155 miles per hour). The hurricane can be tracked on Weather.com)

Ironically, our family visitors from The Bahamas left yesterday afternoon with our my little daughter (to spend a few weeks there), and we hope and pray that the hurricane does not catch them up north.

Some of the other Barbadian blogs are following the storm closely (especially Notes from the Margin). One of the blogs (Barbados Underground) noted that CNN had contacted them and was looking for a Bajan blogger to do a web cam interview with Anderson Cooper this evening; they had declined and suggested David Ellis (a journalist, who moderates "Down to Brass Tacks"). It will be interesting to see how the North America news develops its view of a "crisis" on the island.

Praying that everyone here remains safe over the next few days, and hoping that the other islands either escape or are well enough prepared. Hurricane seasons comes around every year, but each time it's a different roller coaster ride.